Problems of modeling climate and climate change     

V. P. Dymnikov  V. N. Lykosov  E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2006,42(5):568-585

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.  相似文献   

Statistics of nonlinear wave crests and groups   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Aziz Tayfun   《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(11-12):1589-1622

Groups of large nonlinear waves with sharper higher crests can pose hazards to ships, induce harbor resonance and cause wave-overtopping of fixed and floating structures. Past interest in wave groups has mostly been focused on the statistics and modeling of linear wave groups. Studies on nonlinear wave groups are surprisingly few, and address deep water waves only. Here, statistics of nonlinear wave crests and wave-crest groups in deep and transitional water depths are considered, using an appropriate second-order representation for crest heights and the continuous wave-envelope approach. In particular, theoretical expressions describing the statistics of nonlinear wave crests and their groups are posed in the form of a simple second-order transformation of well-known results on linear waves. Predictions from the transformation so posed compare well with nonlinear wave data gathered in the North Sea, and demonstrate that nonlinearities do affect the statistics of large wave crests and their groups significantly.  相似文献   

Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit (NW Turkey): a sedimentary basin under control of the North Anatolian Fault Zone     

Erdal Dolu  Erkan Gökaşan  Engin Meriç  Mustafa Ergin  Tolga Görüm  Hüseyin Tur  Berkan Ecevitoğlu  Niyazi Avşar  Muhittin Görmüş  Fatmagül Batuk  Buğser Tok  Oktay Çetin 《Geo-Marine Letters》2007,27(6):355-381

The Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit, situated on the tectonically active North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), was investigated using seismic reflection, paleontologic, and sediment textural data. On the basis of seismic stratigraphic and sedimentologic-paleontologic interpretations, four depositional units were distinguished within the Plio-Quaternary sequence of the Gulf of İzmit. According to these data, Plio-Quaternary deposits supplied from the northern terrestrial area started to accumulate during a progradational phase, in a south-facing half-graben. A coarse-grained sedimentary unit prograding into the gulf from the south since 200 ka b.p. indicates a dramatic variation in the evolution of the gulf, with the initiation of a new strike-slip fault of the NAFZ and a corresponding uplift of the Armutlu Peninsula in the south of the gulf. During the evolution of this fault from a wide shear zone consisting of right-stepped strike-slip faults and pull-apart basins to a localized principal fault zone, sediments were deposited under the influence of northerly prograding terrestrial and shallow-marine conditions due to relative sea-level fluctuations in the Marmara Sea. During this period, the Gulf of İzmit was invaded mainly by Mediterranean and partly by Black Sea waters. In the latest glacial period, shallow areas in the gulf became subaerially exposed, whereas the central and western sub-basins of the gulf turned into lakes. The present evolution of the Gulf of İzmit is controlled by the after effects of the new rupture of the NAFZ and the estuarine nature of the gulf environment.  相似文献   

Advances in the fatigue assessment of wire ropes     

Alan G. Paton  Neil F. Casey  Joe Fairbairn  William M. Banks   《Ocean Engineering》2001,28(5)

This paper presents the findings from an in-depth analysis of the (axial) stiffness data recorded during tension–tension fatigue tests on wire ropes, particularly in relation to how changes in stiffness during testing relate to changes in rope strength. A linear relationship between stiffness and strength is shown to exist and a methodology presented for quantifying residual strength with applied cycles. New lower bound fatigue lines for six-strand rope and spiral strand are presented which are based on a 10% loss of strength. These new lines have the advantage of having been established using a common discard criterion for wire ropes.  相似文献   

Parametric integral model of the wind disturbance concerted with the All-Union wave constructional standards and regulations (CSR)     

G. V. Matushevskii  I. M. Kabatchenko 《Physical Oceanography》1989,1(2):103-110

In a modern statement, the concept of a parametric integral model consists of integration of the energy balance equation (or wind forcing) over the frequency. The angular distribution of the energy and the frequency spectrum are prescribed. The equation is solved by the numerical method taking into consideration the energy advection and its local pumping with the assigned wind field varying in time and space. To calculate the swell waves one can employ the well-known Longuet-Higgins theorem on the invariance of a two-dimensional spectrum. or the ray discrete technique.UDK 551.466.315Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal patterns of cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) abundance and environmental influences - a case study using trawl fishery data in French Atlantic coastal, English Channel, and adjacent waters   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wang  Jianjun; Pierce  Graham J; Boyle  Peter R; Denis  Vincent; Robin  Jean-Paul; Bellido  Jose M 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2003,60(5):1149-1158

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Comparison of the biology, dynamics, and secondary production of Talorchestia brito (Amphipoda, Talitridae) in Atlantic (Portugal) and Mediterranean (Tunisia) populations     

S. C. Gonalves  J. C. Marques  M. A. Pardal  M. F. Bouslama  M. El Gtari  F. Charfi-Cheikhrouha 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,58(4):901-916

The biology, population dynamics, and production of Talorchestia brito were studied at two sandy beaches located on the Atlantic (Portugal) and on the Mediterranean (Tunisia) coasts, respectively. The seasonal variation in abundance and the overall densities were similar in both populations. Reproduction occurred from February to September in the Atlantic, and from March to early November in the Mediterranean. The sex ratio was male biased in the Atlantic, and female biased in the Mediterranean. Based on data from the Atlantic population, both abundance and the proportion of reproductive females were positively correlated with temperature, while the proportion of juveniles in the population was positively correlated with temperature and sediment moisture. On average, individuals from the Atlantic were larger than the ones from the Mediterranean. Life span was estimated at six to nine months in the Atlantic, and five to eight months in the Mediterranean. Talorchestia brito was shown to be a semiannual species, with iteroparous females producing two broods per year, and exhibited a bivoltine life cycle. The minimum age required for males' and females' sexual differentiation and for female sexual maturation was shorter in the Mediterranean. Growth production (P) was estimated at 0.19 g m⁻² y⁻¹ ash free dry weight (AFDW; 4.3 kJ m⁻² y⁻¹) in the Atlantic population, and 0.217 g m⁻² y⁻¹ AFDW (4.9 kJ m⁻² y⁻¹) in the Mediterranean one. Elimination production (E) was estimated at 0.35 g m⁻² y⁻¹ AFDW (7.9 kJ m⁻² y⁻¹) in the Atlantic, and 0.28 g m⁻² y⁻¹ AFDW (6.3 kJ m⁻² y⁻¹) in the Mediterranean. The average annual biomass ( ) (standing stock) was estimated at 0.032 g m⁻² in the Atlantic beach, and 0.029 g m⁻² in the Mediterranean one, resulting, respectively, in ratios of 5.9 and 7.5 and ratios of 10.8 and 9.6. Like other talitrids, T. brito exhibited geographic variation in morphometrical characteristics, sex ratio, growth rates, life span, and reproduction period, with the Atlantic population presenting a slower life history.  相似文献   

Effects of water-borne copper on metallothionein and lipid peroxidation in the marine amphipod Gammarus locusta   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Correi AD  Livingstone DR  Costa MH 《Marine environmental research》2002,54(3-5):357-360

The aim of the current work was to determine over 10 days the effects of water-borne exposure of the marine amphipod Gammarus locusta to 4 microgCu l(-1) on the metallothionein (MT; measured by differential pulse polarography) protection system and lipid peroxidation (LP: thiobarbituric acid-reactive malondialdehyde equivalents) as a measure of oxidative damage. MT levels in exposed animals increased significantly at day 2 (36% > control; P < 0.001) and remained high at days 6 and 10 (55 and 38%, respectively, P < 0.001). The maximum level of MT at day 6 coincided with the highest Cu body-burden. LP increased within I day of exposure, indicative of Cu as an oxidative stressor. However, in contrast to MT, the highest LP level was seen at day 4 (68% > control, P < 0.001) before returning to control values by day 6, indicating a protective role of MT against the pro-oxidant effects of Cu.  相似文献   

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. J. Cassidy  P. H. Taylor  R. Eatock Taylor  G. T. Houlsby 《Ocean Engineering》2002,29(13):1603-1631

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.  相似文献   

Characterizing Observed Environmental Variability With HF Doppler Radar Surface Current Mappers and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers: Environmental Variability in the Coastal Ocean   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Josh T. Kohut Hugh J. Roarty Scott M. Glenn 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2006,31(4):876-884

A network of high-frequency (HF) radars is deployed along the New Jersey coast providing synoptic current maps across the entire shelf. These data serve a variety of user groups from scientific research to Coast Guard search and rescue. In addition, model forecasts have been shown to improve with surface current assimilation. In all applications, there is a need for better definitions and assessment of the measurement uncertainty. During a summer coastal predictive skill experiment in 2001, an array of in situ current profilers was deployed near two HF radar sites, one long-range and one standard-range system. Comparison statistics were calculated between different vertical bins on the same current profiler, between different current profilers, and between the current profilers and the different HF radars. The velocity difference in the vertical and horizontal directions were then characterized using the observed root-mean-square (rms) differences. We further focused on two cases, one with relatively high vertical variability, and the second with relatively low vertical variability. Observed differences between the top bin of the current profiler and the HF radar were influenced by both system accuracy and the environment. Using the in situ current profilers, the environmental variability over scales based on the HF radar sampling was quantified. HF radar comparisons with the current profilers were on the same order as the observed environmental difference over the same scales, indicating that the environment has a significant influence on the observed differences. Velocity variability in the vertical and horizontal directions both contribute to these differences. When the potential effects of the vertical variability could be minimized, the remaining difference between the current profiler and the HF radar was similar to the measured horizontal velocity difference (~2.5 cm/s) and below the resolution of the raw radial data at the time of the deployment  相似文献