POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION     

MARIANNE V. MOORE  MICHAEL L. PACE  JOHN R. MATHER  PETER S. MURDOCH  ROBERT W. HOWARTH  CAROL L. FOLT  CELIA Y. CHEN  HAROLD F. HEMOND  PATRICIA A. FLEBBE  CHARLES T. DRISCOLL 《水文研究》1997,11(8):925-947

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FRESHWATERS OF ARCTIC AND SUBARCTIC NORTH AMERICA     

WAYNE R. ROUSE  MARIANNE S. V. DOUGLAS  ROBERT E. HECKY  ANNE E. HERSHEY  GEORGE W. KLING  LANCE LESACK  PHILIP MARSH  MICHAEL MCDONALD  BARBARA J. NICHOLSON  NIGEL T. ROULET  JOHN P. SMOL 《水文研究》1997,11(8):873-902

Region 2 comprises arctic and subarctic North America and is underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost. Its freshwater systems are dominated by a low energy environment and cold region processes. Central northern areas are almost totally influenced by arctic air masses while Pacific air becomes more prominent in the west, Atlantic air in the east and southern air masses at the lower latitudes. Air mass changes will play an important role in precipitation changes associated with climate warming. The snow season in the region is prolonged resulting in long-term storage of water so that the spring flood is often the major hydrological event of the year, even though, annual rainfall usually exceeds annual snowfall. The unique character of ponds and lakes is a result of the long frozen period, which affects nutrient status and gas exchange during the cold season and during thaw. GCM models are in close agreement for this region and predict temperature increases as large as 4°C in summer and 9°C in winter for a 2 × CO₂ scenario. Palaeoclimate indicators support the probability that substantial temperature increases have occurred previously during the Holocene. The historical record indicates a temperature increase of > 1°C in parts of the region during the last century. GCM predictions of precipitation change indicate an increase, but there is little agreement amongst the various models on regional disposition or magnitude. Precipitation change is as important as temperature change in determining the water balance. The water balance is critical to every aspect of hydrology and limnology in the far north. Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in freshwater systems because it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frost table, which limits the water storage capabilities of the subsurface. Thawing associated with climate change would, particularly in areas of massive ice, stimulate landscape changes, which can affect every aspect of the environment. The normal spring flooding of ice-jammed north-flowing rivers, such as the Mackenzie, is a major event, which renews the water supply of lakes in delta regions and which determines the availability of habitat for aquatic organisms. Climate warming or river damming and diversion would probably lead to the complete drying of many delta lakes. Climate warming would also change the characteristics of ponds that presently freeze to the bottom and result in fundamental changes in their limnological characteristics. At present, the food chain is rather simple usually culminating in lake trout or arctic char. A lengthening of the growing season and warmer water temperature would affect the chemical, mineral and nutrient status of lakes and most likely have deleterious effects on the food chain. Peatlands are extensive in region 2. They would move northwards at their southern boundaries, and, with sustained drying, many would change form or become inactive. Extensive wetlands and peatlands are an important component of the global carbon budget, and warmer and drier conditions would most likely change them from a sink to a source for atmospheric carbon. There is some evidence that this may be occurring already. Region 2 is very vulnerable to global warming. Its freshwater systems are probably the least studied and most poorly understood in North America. There are clear needs to improve our current knowledge of temperature and precipitation patterns; to model the thermal behaviour of wetlands, lakes and rivers; to understand better the interrelationships of cold region rivers with their basins; to begin studies on the very large lakes in the region; to obtain a firm grasp of the role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle; and to link the terrestrial water balance to the thermal and hydrological regime of the polar sea. Overall, there is a strong need for basic research and long-term monitoring. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ESTABLISHING LICHENOMETRIC AGES FOR NINETEENTH- AND TWENTIETH-CENTURY GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS ON SOUTH GEORGIA (SOUTH ATLANTIC)     

BY STEPHEN J. ROBERTS  DOMINIC A. HODGSON  SAMANTHA SHELLEY  JESSICA ROYLES  HUW J. GRIFFITHS  TARA J. DEEN  MICHAEL A.S. THORNE 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2010,92(1):125-139

Glaciers in small mountain cirques on South Georgia respond rapidly and sensitively to changes in South Atlantic climate. The timing and rate of their deglaciation can be used to examine the impact that nineteenth- and twentieth-century climate change has had on the glacial dynamics and terrestrial ecosystems of South Georgia. As part of a reconnaissance study in Prince Olav Harbour (POH), South Georgia, we measured the size of lichens ( Rhizocarpon Ram. em Th. Fr. subgenus. Rhizocarpon group) on ice-free moraine ridges around two small mountain cirques. Our aims were twofold: first, to provide age estimates for lichen colonization, and hence, deglaciation of the moraine ridges, and second, to examine the potential of applying lichenometry more widely to provide deglacial age constraints on South Georgia. In the absence of lichen age-size (dating) curves for South Georgia, we use long-term Rhizocarpon lichen growth-rates from recent studies on sub-Antarctic Islands and the western Antarctic Peninsula to calculate likely age estimates. These data suggest ice retreat from the two outermost moraines occurred between the end of the 'Little Ice Age' (post c. 1870) and the early twentieth century on South Georgia. Lichen colonization of the innermost moraines is probably related to glacier retreat during the second half of the twentieth century, which has been linked to a well-defined warming trend since c. 1950. Patterns of possible nineteenth- and twentieth-century glacial retreat identified in POH need to be tested further by establishing species- and site-specific lichen age-size (dating) curves for South Georgia, and by applying lichenometry to other mountain cirques across South Georgia.  相似文献   

Object-oriented data modelling for spatial databases     

MICHAEL F. WORBOYS  HILARY M. HEARNSHAW  DAVID J. MAGUIRE 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(4):369-383

Data modelling is a critical stage of database design. Recent research has focused upon object-oriented data models, which appear more appropriate for certain applications than either the traditional relational model or the entity-relationship approach. The object-oriented approach has proved to be especially fruitful in application areas, such as the design of geographical information systems which have a richly structured knowledge domain and are associated with multimedia databases. This article discusses the key concepts in object-oriented modelling and demonstrates the applicability of an object-oriented design methodology to the design of geographical information systems. In order to show more clearly how this methodology may be applied, the paper considers the specific object-oriented data model IFO. Standard cartographic primitives are represented using IFO, which are then used in the modelling of some standard administrative units in the United Kingdom. The paper concludes by discussing current research issues and directions in this area.  相似文献   

NCGIA education activities: the core curriculum and beyond     

MICHAEL F. GOODCHILD  KAREN K. KEMP 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(4):309-320

Abstract

Education has been part of the NCGIA's mission from the earliest discussions of the concept of the Center at the National Science Foundation. To respond to the need for short-term solutions to the shortage of adequately trained personnel in GIS, the Center developed a set of teaching materials or core curriculum. The steps in its development are described and an analysis of initial distribution statistics is presented. Current efforts to develop a framework for laboratory materials are outlined. The paper ends with an assessment of the project and comparison with other disciplines.  相似文献   

Playa‐lake sedimentation and organic matter accumulation in an Andean piggyback basin: the recent record from the Cuenca de Pozuelos,North‐west Argentina     

MICHAEL M. McGLUE  GEOFFREY S. ELLIS  ANDREW S. COHEN  PETER W. SWARZENSKI 《Sedimentology》2012,59(4):1237-1256

Expansive playa‐lake systems situated in high‐altitude piggyback basins are important and conspicuous components of both modern and ancient cordilleran orogenic systems. Extant playa lakes provide vital habitat for numerous endemic species, whereas sediments from these deposystems may record signals of climate change or develop natural resources over geological time. Laguna de los Pozuelos (North‐west Argentina) provides the opportunity for an actualistic sedimentological and geochemical assessment of a piggyback basin playa lake in an area of critical interest for understanding Quaternary palaeoclimate dynamics. Silty clays and diatom ooze are the dominant playa‐lake centre microfacies, with concentrations of total organic carbon and biogenic silica commonly exceeding 1·5 wt% in this sub‐environment. Elemental and stable isotopic analyses point to a mixed organic matter composition in the playa‐lake centre, with substantial contributions from algae and transported aquatic macrophytes. Bulk sediment and organic mass accumulation rates in the southern playa‐lake centre approach 0·22 g cm^?2 year^?1 and 2·89 mg cm^?2 year^?1, respectively, indicating moderately rapid deposition with negligible deflation over historic time. Playa margin facies contain higher percentages of fragmented biogenic carbonate (ostracods and charophytes) and inorganically precipitated aragonite crusts due to seasonal pumping and evaporation of ground water. Organic matter accumulation is limited along these heavily bioturbated wet and dry mud flats. Fluvial–lacustrine transitional environments, which are key waterbird habitats, are either silty terminal splay (northern axis) or sandy deltas (southern axis) containing highly oxidized and partially allochthonous organic matter. Modern analogue data from Laguna de los Pozuelos provide key insights for: (i) environmental reconstructions of ancient lake sequences; and (ii) improving facies models for piggyback basins.  相似文献   

SENSITIVITY AND PATH DEPENDENCE OF MOUNTAIN PERMAFROST SYSTEMS     

SARAH VERLEYSDONK  MICHAEL KRAUTBLATTER  RICHARD DIKAU 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2011,93(2):113-135

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Geology and military tunnels     

MICHAEL S. ROSENBAUM &  EDWARD P. F. ROSE 《Geology Today》1992,8(3):92-98

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ENSO prediction experiments using a simple ocean-atmosphere model     

DENG-HUA WU  DAVID L. T. ANDERSON  MICHAEL K. DAVEY 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》1994,46(4):465-480

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The local geologist 9: Doing research     

MICHAEL A. TAYLOR 《Geology Today》1992,8(5):189-194

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