Application of tank,NAM, ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting     

Tawatchai Tingsanchali  Mahesh Raj Gautam 《水文研究》2000,14(14):2473-2487

Two lumped conceptual hydrological models, namely tank and NAM and a neural network model are applied to flood forecasting in two river basins in Thailand, the Wichianburi on the Pasak River and the Tha Wang Pha on the Nan River using the flood forecasting procedure developed in this study. The tank and NAM models were calibrated and verified and found to give similar results. The results were found to improve significantly by coupling stochastic and deterministic models (tank and NAM) for updating forecast output. The neural network (NN) model was compared with the tank and NAM models. The NN model does not require knowledge of catchment characteristics and internal hydrological processes. The training process or calibration is relatively simple and less time consuming compared with the extensive calibration effort required by the tank and NAM models. The NN model gives good forecasts based on available rainfall, evaporation and runoff data. The black‐box nature of the NN model and the need for selecting parameters based on trial and error or rule‐of‐thumb, however, characterizes its inherent weakness. The performance of the three models was evaluated statistically. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A hybrid deterministic and stochastic approach for tsunami hazard assessment in Iquique,Chile     

González  Juan  González  Gabriel  Aránguiz  Rafael  Melgar  Diego  Zamora  Natalia  Shrivastava  Mahesh N.  Das  Ranjit  Catalán  Patricio A.  Cienfuegos  Rodrigo 《Natural Hazards》2020,101(1):231-253

Natural Hazards - This paper presents an investigation of the collapse of a 325-year-old multi-tiered heritage temple during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Kathmandu, Nepal. The research comprises a...  相似文献   

Hydrogeomorphological studies in kallambella watershed, Tumkur District, Karnataka State, India Using Remote Sensing and GIS     

N. Lokesha  G. S. Gopalakrishna  M. J. Mahesh 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2007,35(1):107-115

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Petrology and geochemistry of LaPaz Icefield 02205: A new unique low-Ti mare-basalt meteorite     

Mahesh Anand  Lawrence A. Taylor  Clive R. Neal  Shiho Tanikawa 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2006,70(1):246-264

LaPaz Icefield 02205 (LAP 02205) is a new low-Ti mare-basalt meteorite that was discovered in the LaPaz Ice Field in Antarctica. This is the first crystalline lunar basalt in the US Antarctic collection and the only 5th unbrecciated mare-basalt meteorite to be discovered to date. The rock has a typical basaltic texture with tabular and elongated pyroxene and plagioclase crystals, and minor olivine grains commonly rimmed by pyroxenes. Core- to rim-zoning in terms of Fe and Mg is present in almost all pyroxene grains. Accessory minerals include ilmenite, chromite, ulvöspinel, troilite, and FeNi metal. This rock is highly enriched in late-stage mesostasis. Free silica is also abundant. In terms of texture and mineralogy, LAP 02205 displays features of low-Ti mare basalts, with similarities to some low-Ti Apollo 12 and Apollo 15 basalts. Whole-rock major- and trace-element compositions confirm the highly fractionated nature of this basalt. The whole-rock REE contents of the meteorite are the highest among all known low-Ti mare basalts. The platinum group element (PGE) contents in LAP are also enriched suggesting the possibility of endogenously enriched source regions or the PGEs generally behaved as incompatible elements during crystal fractionation under low fO₂ conditions. Trace-element contents of mineral grains in LAP 02205 display wide variations, suggesting extensive non-equilibrium crystallization. The REE concentrations in the earliest-formed minerals provide constraints on the composition of the parental liquid, which is similar to the measured whole-rock composition. Crystallization modeling of the LAP 02205 bulk composition yields a reasonable fit between predicted and observed mineral phases and compositions, except for the high-Mg olivine cores, which are observed in the rock but not predicted by the modeling. An isochron age of 2929 ± 150 Ma for phosphate minerals makes this rock one of the youngest lunar basalts known to date. The young age and specific geochemical characteristics of LAP distinguish it from those of most other low-Ti mare basalts. However, the low-Ti mare basalt meteorite, NWA 032, has a similar young age, and the two meteorites also appear to be closely related from some geochemical perspectives and might have originated from similar source regions on the Moon.  相似文献   

Large-scale precipitation estimation using Kalpana-1 IR measurements and its validation using GPCP and GPCC data     

Satya Prakash  Mahesh C.  Rakesh M. Gairola 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(3-4):283-293

Large-scale precipitation estimation is very important for climate science because precipitation is a major component of the earth's water and energy cycles. In the present study, the GOES precipitation index technique has been applied to the Kalpana-1 satellite infrared (IR) images of every three-hourly, i.e., of 0000, 0300, 0600,??., 2100?hours UTC, for rainfall estimation as a preparatory to the INSAT-3D. After the temperatures of all the pixels in a grid are known, they are distributed to generate a three-hourly 24-class histogram of brightness temperatures of IR (10.5?C12.5???m) images for a 1.0°?×?1.0° latitude/longitude box. The daily, monthly, and seasonal rainfall have been estimated using these three-hourly rain estimates for the entire south-west monsoon period of 2009 in the present study. To investigate the potential of these rainfall estimates, the validation of monthly and seasonal rainfall estimates has been carried out using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data. The validation results show that the present technique works very well for the large-scale precipitation estimation qualitatively as well as quantitatively. The results also suggest that the simple IR-based estimation technique can be used to estimate rainfall for tropical areas at a larger temporal scale for climatological applications.  相似文献   

The Mw 7.5 2009 Coco earthquake, north Andaman region     

P. Mahesh  Amit Bansal  B. Kundu  J. K. Catherine  V. K. Gahalaut 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2011,77(3):243-251

The recent 10 August 2009 Coco earthquake (Mw 7.5), the largest aftershock of the giant 2004 Sumatra Andaman earthquake, occurred within the subducting India plate under the Burma plate. The Coco earthquake nucleated near the northwestern edge of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake rupture under the unruptured updip segment of the plate boundary interface. The earthquake with predominant normal motion on approximately north-south to northeast-southwest oriented plane is very similar to the 27 June 2008 Little Andaman earthquake which occurred in the South Andaman region near the trench. We provide the only available estimate of coseismic offset due to the 2009 Coco earthquake at a survey-mode GPS site in the north Andaman, located about 60 km south of the Coco earthquake epicentre. The not so large coseismic displacement of about 2 cm in the ESE direction is consistent with the earthquake focal mechanism and its magnitude. We suggest that, like the 2008 Little Andaman earthquake, this earthquake too occurred on one of the approximately north-south to northeast-southwest oriented steep planes of the obliquely subducting 90°E ridge which was reactivated in normal motion after subduction, under the favourable influence of coseismic and ongoing postseismic deformation due to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. Another notable feature of this earthquake is its relatively low aftershock productivity. We suggest that the earthquake occurred very close to the aseismic region of the Irrawaddy frontal arc of very low seismicity where pre-existing faults are not so critically stressed and because of which the earthquake could trigger only a few aftershocks in its immediate vicinity.  相似文献   

Increasing trend of northeast monsoon rainfall over the equatorial Indian Ocean and peninsular India   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Satya Prakash  Mahesh C.  V. Sathiyamoorthy  R. M. Gairola 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):185-191

Peninsular India and Sri Lanka receive major part of their annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October–December). The long-term trend in the northeast monsoon rainfall over the Indian Ocean and peninsular India is examined in the vicinity of global warming scenario using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset available for the period 1979–2010. The result shows a significant increasing trend in rainfall rate of about 0.5 mm day^?1 decade^?1 over a large region bounded by 10 °S–10 °N and 55 °E–100 °E. The interannual variability of seasonal rainfall rate over peninsular India using conventional rain gauge data is also investigated in conjunction to the Indian Ocean dipole. The homogeneous rain gauge data developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology over peninsular India also exhibit the considerable upward rainfall trend of about 0.4 mm day^?1 decade^?1 during this period. The associated outgoing longwave radiation shows coherent decrease in the order of 2 W?m^?2 decade^?1 over the rainfall increase region.  相似文献   

H and Cl isotope systematics of apatite in brecciated lunar meteorites Northwest Africa 4472, Northwest Africa 773, Sayh al Uhaymir 169, and Kalahari 009     

Romain Tartèse  Mahesh Anand  Katherine H. Joy  Ian A. Franchi 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(12):2266-2289

We have investigated the H and Cl systematics in apatite from four brecciated lunar meteorites. In Northwest Africa (NWA) 4472, most of the apatites contain ～2000–6000 ppm H₂O with δD between ?200 and 0‰, except for one grain isolated in the matrix, which contains ～6000 ppm H₂O with δD of ～500–900‰. This low‐δD apatite contains ～2500–7500 ppm Cl associated with δ³⁷Cl of ～15–20‰, while the high‐δD grain contains ～2500 ppm Cl with δ³⁷Cl of ～7–15‰. In NWA 773, apatites in a first group contain ～700–2500 ppm H₂O with δD values averaging around ～0 ± 100‰, while apatites in a second group contain ～5500–16500 ppm H₂O with δD ～250 ± 50‰. In Sayh al Uhaymir (SaU) 169 and Kalahari (Kal) 009, apatites are similar in terms of their H₂O contents (～600–3000 ppm) and δD values (?100 to 200‰). In SaU 169, apatites contain ～6000–10,000 ppm Cl, characterized by δ³⁷Cl of ～5–12‰. Overall, most of the analyzed apatite grains have δD within the range reported for carbonaceous chondrites, similar to apatite analyzed in ancient (>3.9 Ga) lunar magmatic. One grain in NWA 4472 has H and Cl isotope compositions similar to apatite from mare basalts. With an age of 4.35 Ga, this grain could be a representative of the oldest known lunar volcanic activity. Finally, since numerous evolved clasts in NWA 773 formed through silicate liquid immiscibility, the apatite grains with extremely high H₂O contents, reaching pure hydroxylapatite composition, could provide insights into the effects of such process on the evolution of volatiles in lunar magmas.  相似文献   

Support vector machines‐based modelling of seismic liquefaction potential     

Mahesh Pal 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(10):983-996

This paper investigates the potential of support vector machines (SVM)‐based classification approach to assess the liquefaction potential from actual standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) field data. SVMs are based on statistical learning theory and found to work well in comparison to neural networks in several other applications. Both CPT and SPT field data sets is used with SVMs for predicting the occurrence and non‐occurrence of liquefaction based on different input parameter combination. With SPT and CPT test data sets, highest accuracy of 96 and 97%, respectively, was achieved with SVMs. This suggests that SVMs can effectively be used to model the complex relationship between different soil parameter and the liquefaction potential. Several other combinations of input variable were used to assess the influence of different input parameters on liquefaction potential. Proposed approach suggest that neither normalized cone resistance value with CPT data nor the calculation of standardized SPT value is required with SPT data. Further, SVMs required few user‐defined parameters and provide better performance in comparison to neural network approach. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Characterization of mesostasis regions in lunar basalts: Understanding late‐stage melt evolution and its influence on apatite formation          下载免费PDF全文

Nicola J. Potts  Romain Tartèse  Mahesh Anand  Wim van Westrenen  Alexandra A. Griffiths  Thomas J. Barrett  Ian A. Franchi 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2016,51(9):1555-1575

Recent studies geared toward understanding the volatile abundances of the lunar interior have focused on the volatile‐bearing accessory mineral apatite. Translating measurements of volatile abundances in lunar apatite into the volatile inventory of the silicate melts from which they crystallized, and ultimately of the mantle source regions of lunar magmas, however, has proved more difficult than initially thought. In this contribution, we report a detailed characterization of mesostasis regions in four Apollo mare basalts (10044, 12064, 15058, and 70035) in order to ascertain the compositions of the melts from which apatite crystallized. The texture, modal mineralogy, and reconstructed bulk composition of these mesostasis regions vary greatly within and between samples. There is no clear relationship between bulk‐rock basaltic composition and that of bulk‐mesostasis regions, indicating that bulk‐rock composition may have little influence on mesostasis compositions. The development of individual melt pockets, combined with the occurrence of silicate liquid immiscibility, exerts greater control on the composition and texture of mesostasis regions. In general, the reconstructed late‐stage lunar melts have roughly andesitic to dacitic compositions with low alkali contents, displaying much higher SiO₂ abundances than the bulk compositions of their host magmatic rocks. Relevant partition coefficients for apatite‐melt volatile partitioning under lunar conditions should, therefore, be derived from experiments conducted using intermediate compositions instead of compositions representing mare basalts.  相似文献