An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean     

Elizabeth Holcombe  Sarah Smith  Edmund Wright  Malcolm G. Anderson 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(2):351-385

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards, it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention), and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7–1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities—thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.  相似文献   

Aridity changes in the Temperate-Mediterranean transition of the Andes since ad 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings     

Duncan A. Christie  Jos�� A. Boninsegna  Malcolm K. Cleaveland  Antonio Lara  Carlos Le Quesne  Mariano S. Morales  Manfred Mudelsee  David W. Stahle  Ricardo Villalba 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(7-8):1505-1521

The Andes Cordillera acts as regional ??Water Towers?? for several countries and encompasses a wide range of ecosystems and climates. Several hydroclimatic changes have been described for portions of the Andes during recent years, including glacier retreat, negative precipitation trends, an elevation rise in the 0° isotherm, and changes in regional streamflow regimes. The Temperate-Mediterranean transition (TMT) zone of the Andes (35.5°?C39.5°S) is particularly at risk to climate change because it is a biodiversity hotspot with heavy human population pressure on water resources. In this paper we utilize a new tree-ring network of Austrocedrus chilensis to reconstruct past variations in regional moisture in the TMT of the Andes by means of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The reconstruction covers the past 657?years and captures interannual to decadal scales of variability in late spring?Cearly summer PDSI. These changes are related to the north?Csouth oscillations in moisture conditions between the Mediterranean and Temperate climates of the Andes as a consequence of the latitudinal position of the storm tracks forced by large-scale circulation modes. Kernel estimation of occurrence rates reveals an unprecedented increment of severe and extreme drought events during the last century in the context of the previous six centuries. Moisture conditions in our study region are linked to tropical and high-latitude ocean-atmospheric forcing, with PDSI positively related to Ni?o-3.4 SST during spring and strongly negatively correlated with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) during summer. Geopotential anomaly maps at 500-hPa show that extreme dry years are tightly associated with negative height anomalies in the Ross?CAmundsen Seas, in concordance with the strong negative relationship between PDSI and AAO. The twentieth century increase in extreme drought events in the TMT may not be related to ENSO but to the positive AAO trend during late-spring and summer resulting from a gradual poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks. This first PDSI reconstruction for South America demonstrates the highly significant hindcast skill of A. chilensis as an aridity proxy.  相似文献   

Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cynthia Rosenzweig  William D. Solecki  Reginald Blake  Malcolm Bowman  Craig Faris  Vivien Gornitz  Radley Horton  Klaus Jacob  Alice LeBlanc  Robin Leichenko  Megan Linkin  David Major  Megan O��Grady  Lesley Patrick  Edna Sussman  Gary Yohe  Rae Zimmerman 《Climatic change》2011,106(1):93-127

While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today??s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region??s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder?Cscientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.  相似文献   

Topographically modified tree-ring chronologies as a potential means to improve paleoclimate inference     

Andrew G. Bunn  Malcolm K. Hughes  Matthew W. Salzer 《Climatic change》2011,105(3-4):627-634

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Cytochrome P4501A biomarker indication of the timeline of chronic exposure of Barrow's goldeneyes to residual Exxon Valdez oil     

Esler D  Ballachey BE  Trust KA  Iverson SA  Reed JA  Miles AK  Henderson JD  Woodin BR  Stegeman JJ  McAdie M  Mulcahy DM  Wilson BW 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(3):609-614

We examined hepatic EROD activity, as an indicator of CYP1A induction, in Barrow’s goldeneyes captured in areas oiled during the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill and those from nearby unoiled areas. We found that average EROD activity differed between areas during 2005, although the magnitude of the difference was reduced relative to a previous study from 1996/1997, and we found that areas did not differ by 2009. Similarly, we found that the proportion of individuals captured from oiled areas with elevated EROD activity (?2 times unoiled average) declined from 41% in winter 1996/1997 to 10% in 2005 and 15% in 2009. This work adds to a body of literature describing the timelines over which vertebrates were exposed to residual Exxon Valdez oil and indicates that, for Barrow’s goldeneyes in Prince William Sound, exposure persisted for many years with evidence of substantially reduced exposure by 2 decades after the spill.  相似文献