Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

Mort Webster  Chris Forest  John Reilly  Mustafa Babiker  David Kicklighter  Monika Mayer  Ronald Prinn  Marcus Sarofim  Andrei Sokolov  Peter Stone  Chien Wang 《Climatic change》2003,61(3):295-320

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Putting Japanese investment in Europe in its place   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peter Dicken  Adam Tickell  Henry Yeung 《Area》1997,29(3):200-212

Summary Research on Japanese economic activity in Europe concentrates almost exclusively on investment in manufacturing. However, this paper demonstrates that this emphasis both underestimates the longevity of Japanese direct investment in Europe and also grossly underdefines the importance of services. Not only does Japanese direct investment have a much longer history in Europe than is usually recognized but also—and perhaps more significantly—the bulk of that investment is not in manufacturing production per se but in a variety of circulation services. Using establishment-level data, this paper shows that the spatial manifestation of these circulation services is very different from that of manufacturing production.  相似文献   

Delineating the Chemical Composition of the Salinity Source for Saline Ground Waters: An Example from East-Central Concordia Parish, Louisiana     

Ronald K. Stoessell 《Ground water》1997,35(3):409-417

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Guiding Principles of USGS Methodology for Assessment of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources     

Ronald R. Charpentier  T. R. Klett 《Natural Resources Research》2005,14(3):175-186

During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible, within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users. Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used. The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving. Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the respective resource assessment methodologies.  相似文献   

A large landslide on the urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

John Douglass  Ronald I. Dorn  Brian Gootee 《Geomorphology》2005,65(3-4):321-336

A granitic rock avalanche, one of the largest Quaternary landslides in Arizona outside the Grand Canyon with a volume of approximately 5.25 M m³ and a width a little under 0.5 km, ran 1 km from the eastern McDowell Mountains. With lateral levees and pressure ridges, the rock avalanche deposit displays many features found on classic sturzstroms. Failure occurred along a major joint plane paralleling the slope with a dip of 44°, when a major base level lowering event in the Salt River system would have undermined the base of the failed slope, and probably during a period of more moisture than normally available in the present-day arid climate. Failure at the subsurface weathering front highlights the importance of the dramatic permeability change between grussified regolith and relatively fresh bedrock. Rock varnish microlaminations (VMLs) dating, in concert with other geomorphic evidence, suggests that the rock avalanche deposit is slightly older than 500 ka. The rock vanish results also have important implications for sampling strategies designed to use cosmogenic nuclide to date Quaternary landslide deposits. Discovery of a large landslide in close proximity to the extending urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix argues for a more careful analysis of landslide hazards in the region, especially where rapid development excavates bedrock at the base of steep mountain slopes and where the subsurface weathering front is near the surface.  相似文献   

Facies analysis of the Middle and Late Quaternary sediment infill of the northern Weihe Basin,Central China          下载免费PDF全文

Daniël S. Rits  Maarten A. Prins  Simon R. Troelstra  Ronald T. van Balen  Yan Zheng  Christiaan J. Beets  Bin Wang  Xiaoqiang Li  Jie Zhou  Hongbo Zheng 《第四纪科学杂志》2016,31(2):152-165

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Modelling spatial variations in dissolved oxygen in fine‐grained streams under uncertainty          下载免费PDF全文

Vahid Zahraeifard  Zhiqiang Deng  Ronald Malone 《水文研究》2015,29(2):212-224

This paper presents a novel triple‐layer model, called VART DO‐3L, for simulation of spatial variations in dissolved oxygen (DO) in fine‐grained streams, characterized by a fluid mud (fluff or flocculent) layer (an advection‐dominated storage zone) as the interface between overlying stream water and relatively consolidated streambed sediment (a diffusion‐dominated storage zone). A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the sensitivity of VART DO‐3L model input parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the most sensitive parameter is the relative size of the advection‐dominated storage zones (A_s/A), followed by a lumped reaction term (R) for the flocculent layer, biological reaction rate (μ_o) in diffusive layer and biochemical oxygen demand concentration (L) in water column. In order to address uncertainty in model input parameters, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to sample parameter values and to produce various parameter combinations or cases. The VART DO‐3L model is applied to the Lower Amite River in Louisiana, USA, to simulate vertical and longitudinal variations in DO under the cases. In terms of longitudinal variation, the DO level decreases from 7.9 mg l at the Denham Springs station to about 2.89 mg l^?1 at the Port Vincent station. In terms of vertical variation, the DO level drops rapidly from the overlying water column to the advection‐dominated storage zone and further to the diffusive layer. The DO level (C_F) in the advective layer (flocculent layer) can reach as high as 40% of DO concentration (C) in the water column. The VART DO‐3L model may be applied to similar rivers for simulation of spatial variations in DO level. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flow processes and sedimentation in unidirectionally migrating deep‐water channels: From a three‐dimensional seismic perspective          下载免费PDF全文

Chenglin Gong  Yingmin Wang  Ronald J. Steel  Jeff Peakall  Xiaoming Zhao  Qiliang Sun 《Sedimentology》2016,63(3):645-661

Three‐dimensional seismic data were used to infer how bottom currents control unidirectional channel migration. Bottom currents flowing towards the steep bank would deflect the upper part of sediment gravity flows at an orientation of 1° to 11° to the steep bank, yielding a helical flow circulation consisting of a faster near‐surface flow towards the steep bank and a slower basal return flow towards the gentle bank. This helical flow model is evidenced by the occurrence of bigger, muddier (suggested by low‐amplitude seismic reflections) lateral accretion deposits and gentle channel wall with downlap terminations on the gentle bank and by smaller, sandier (indicated by high‐amplitude seismic reflectors) channel fills and steep channel walls with truncation terminations on the steep bank. This helical flow circulation promotes asymmetrical depositional patterns with dipping accretion sets restricted to the gentle bank, which restricts the development of sinuosity and yields unidirectional channel migration. These results aid in obtaining a complete picture of flow processes and sedimentation in submarine channels.  相似文献   

The removal kinetics of dissolved organic matter and the optical clarity of groundwater     

Francis H. Chapelle  Yuan Shen  Eric W. Strom  Ronald Benner 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(6):1413-1422

Concentrations of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and ultraviolet/visible light absorbance decrease systematically as groundwater moves through the unsaturated zones overlying aquifers and along flowpaths within aquifers. These changes occur over distances of tens of meters (m) implying rapid removal kinetics of the chromophoric DOM that imparts color to groundwater. A one-compartment input-output model was used to derive a differential equation describing the removal of DOM from the dissolved phase due to the combined effects of biodegradation and sorption. The general solution to the equation was parameterized using a 2-year record of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration changes in groundwater at a long-term observation well. Estimated rates of DOC loss were rapid and ranged from 0.093 to 0.21 micromoles per liter per day (μM d^?1), and rate constants for DOC removal ranged from 0.0021 to 0.011 per day (d^?1). Applying these removal rate constants to an advective-dispersion model illustrates substantial depletion of DOC over flow-path distances of 200 m or less and in timeframes of 2 years or less. These results explain the low to moderate DOC concentrations (20–75 μM; 0.26–1 mg L^?1) and ultraviolet absorption coefficient values (a ₂₅₄?<?5 m^?1) observed in groundwater produced from 59 wells tapping eight different aquifer systems of the United States. The nearly uniform optical clarity of groundwater, therefore, results from similarly rapid DOM-removal kinetics exhibited by geologically and hydrologically dissimilar aquifers.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional stability of landslides based on local safety factor     

Tao Yang  Man-chu Ronald Yeung  Bing Yang  Yong-jiang Liu  Yan-xin Yang 《山地科学学报》2016,13(9):1515-1526

Unlike the limit equilibrium method (LEM), with which only the global safety factor of the landslide can be calculated, a local safety factor (LSF) method is proposed to evaluate the stability of different sections of a landslide in this paper. Based on three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulation results, the local safety factor is defined as the ratio of the shear strength of the soil at an element on the slip zone to the shear stress parallel to the sliding direction at that element. The global safety factor of the landslide is defined as the weighted average of all local safety factors based on the area of the slip surface. Some example analyses show that the results computed by the LSF method agree well with those calculated by the General Limit Equilibrium (GLE) method in two-dimensional (2D) models and the distribution of the LSF in the 3D slip zone is consistent with that indicated by the observed deformation pattern of an actual landslide in China.  相似文献