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In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m3/year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary. 相似文献
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Paleofluid analysis from fracture-fill cements in the Asmari limestones of the Kuh-I-Mond field, SW Zagros, Iran 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Zeinab Shariatinia Manouchehr Haghighi Sadat Feiznia Don Hall Gilles Levresse Ali Mousavi Dehghani Masoud Rashidi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(7):2539-2556
Kuh-I-Mond field in the Zagros foreland basin is a conventional heavy oil resource and is composed of fractured carbonates whose fractures were filled by calcite, dolomite, and anhydrite cements. Oil inclusions occurred within the fracture-fill cements indicate that fractures were open and played an active role during oil migration and charge. The highest measured values for secondary porosities belong to fractures in Asmari Formation, which is characterized by significant amounts of vug- and fracture-filling cements. Fractures facilitated fluid circulation and subsequently dissolution of allochems and high Mg carbonates. In contrast, fine-grained carbonate facies were less cemented, and thus, porosity enhancement by cement dissolution was insignificant. Temperature profiles of oil inclusions in the dolomite, calcite, and anhydrite minerals characterized by distinct variations in the homogenization temperatures (Th) that are divided into two ranges below 50°C in anhydrites and from 45°C to 125°C in dolomites and calcites. The lower Th ranges for anhydrite suggests that it may have formed at shallower burial depths during early to middle diagenesis. The oil inclusions display trend for increasing temperature downward which conform to Formation geothermal gradient. In other word, the decreasing trend of Th temperatures upward within Asmari Formation that can be observed in Th versus depth plot is consistent with the uplift events at Late Miocene time and later that caused removal of about 1,300 m of the crest of the Kuh-I-Mond anticline. Vitrinite reflectance data from source rock intervals in the field area do not support vertical migration of locally generated hydrocarbons into the Kuh-I-Mond accumulation, and long-distance lateral oil migration and charge from a source kitchen to the southwest is proposed. Vitrinite reflectance data from this dolomite and limestone reservoir suggest low maturation levels corresponding to paleotemperatures less than 50°C. The observed maturation level (<0.5% Ro) does not exceed values for simple burial maturation based on the estimated burial history. Also, homogenization temperatures from fluid inclusion populations in calcite and dolomites show expected good correlation with reflectance-derived temperatures. The Th data represent pore fluids became warmer and more saline during burial. As aqueous fluid inclusions in calcite veins were homogenized between 22°C and 90°C with a decrease in salinity from 22 to 18 eq.?wt.% NaCl. The Th values suggest a change in water composition and that dolomite and calcite cements might have precipitated from petroleum-derived fluids. The hydrocarbon fluid inclusions microthermometry data suggest that the reservoir was being filled by heavy black oils in reservoir during Cenozoic. Aqueous fluid inclusions hosted by calcite equant sparry/fossil cavity fills suggest low cementation temperatures (<45°C) and high salinities (19 eq.?wt.% NaCl), while those in dolostones are characterized by highly variable homogenization temperature (52°C to 125°C) and salinities (6.5 to 20 eq.?wt.% NaCl). 相似文献
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A constitutive model for the simulation of non‐coaxiality, an aspect of anisotropic behavior of sand subjected to the rotation of the principal stress axes, is presented in this paper. Experimental studies have shown that non‐coaxiality or non‐coincidence of principal plastic strain increments with principal stress axes under loadings involving the rotation of principal stress axes may be considerable. Besides, the rotation of the principal stress axes results in dramatic effects on stiffness and dilatant behavior of sand. Therefore, the consequences of principal stress axes rotation on deformational behavior, dilatancy and soil stiffness must be taken into account in theoretical and practical problems. To this aim, the following steps are taken: (1) A general relationship for flow direction with respect to possibility of non‐coaxial flow is developed. Moreover, special circumstances linking non‐coaxiality to instantaneous interaction between loading and soil fabric are proposed. (2) Proposing novel expressions for plastic modulus and dilatancy function, the model is enforced to provide realistic simulations when sand is subjected to the rotation of the principal stress axes. Finally, with numerous examples and comparisons, the model capabilities are shown under various stress paths and drainage conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Effect of earthquake‐induced axial load fluctuations on asymmetric frame–wall–rocking foundation systems 
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下载免费PDF全文 Weian Liu Tara C. Hutchinson Bruce L. Kutter Andreas G. Gavras Manouchehr Hakhamaneshi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(12):1997-2013
Fluctuations in axial load imposed on a rocking footing will affect its moment capacity, the shape of its moment–rotation hysteresis, and potentially the system's seismic performance. Structural asymmetry increases the likelihood of axial load variation during earthquake excitations. To investigate this issue, a unique centrifuge testing program was carried out on low‐rise frame–wall–rocking foundation systems. In this paper, the seismic behaviors of asymmetric and symmetric models from this test program are systematically compared. Experimental results reveal that placing the lateral force resisting shear wall outboard produces significant axial load fluctuation, which in turn greatly deteriorate the lateral load‐carrying capacity of a foundation rocking dominated frame–wall system, particularly in its weak direction. However, it strengthens the system when loading is towards the shear wall, leading to a highly asymmetric hysteretic response. During earthquake loading, all asymmetric rocking foundation systems observe smaller peak roof accelerations, but larger peak and permanent roof drifts compared with the symmetric systems. Despite these differences in response, the axial load fluctuation and structural asymmetry do not significantly change the relative energy dissipated by the rocking foundations and inelastic structural components within each frame–wall–rocking foundation model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A new probabilistic methodology for landslide hazard assessment in regional scale using Copula modeling technique is presented. The current probabilistic landslide hazard analyses are performed under the assumption that landslide hazard elements, such as magnitude, frequency, and location, are independent. In this paper, a general approach is proposed to consider the possible dependence among hazard elements. Part of the Seattle, WA area was selected to evaluate the competence of the presented method. A total of 357 slope failure events and their corresponding topography and geology data were included in the study to develop and test the model. Based on the results, the mean success rates of the presented model in predicting landslide occurrence are 90 % in hazardous area and 12 % in safe locations on average, while these success rates are 63 and 44 % when these hazard elements were treated as mutually independent. 相似文献
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Manouchehr Chitsazan M. Mohammad Rezapour Tabari Mehdi Eilbeigi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(11):391
Considering the importance of groundwater resources in water-supply demands in arid and semiarid areas such as Iran, it is essential to investigate the risk of groundwater pollution. Nitrate is one of the main pollutants that penetrate into the groundwater from various sources such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and domestic and industrial sewage. Unfortunately currently, nitrate contamination of the aquifers is a serious problem in Iran. The Karaj aquifer is not exempted, and the nitrate pollution zone, with concentrations far beyond the permitted limit (50 mg/L), expands fast. In this paper, the long-term groundwater-quality data (from 2000 to 2013) collected from Alborz Province Water and Wastewater Company were analyzed using ArcGIS10 and statistical software, and the spatial and temporal patterns of nitrate pollution in drinking-water wells in the Karaj plain and effective parameters (such as depth to groundwater level, hydraulic gradient, land use, precipitation, and urban, agricultural and industrial wastewater) were investigated. The authors also investigated the status of nitrate concentration variation using the concepts of geostatistics, based on determinations from 62 to 194 surveyed wells with a suitable distribution across the plain. With respect to the relationship between quality parameters, hydrogeological status of the aquifer and land usage, causes of the increase in the concentration of nitrate in the water and its trend were investigated as well. Results revealed that the nitrate levels in the northern portion of the study area were the highest with maximum concentrations of 181.7 mg/L from 2000 to 2013. Based on nitrate concentration distribution maps, the levels of nitrate increased from 2006 onwards to 26–100 mg/L. Unfortunately from 2008 to 2012, a pollution zone with a nitrate water concentration of 101–150 mg/L has been observed and even a concentration of 180 mg/L has been determined. In 2000, the entire aquifer area has been drinkable but with the increase in nitrate concentration, the area with undrinkable water has expanded to 21% in 2003, 24% in 2005, 33% in 2007, 39% in 2009, 43% in 2011 and 44% in 2013. The results of this study could provide valuable information with on the status of nitrate water concentrations in the Karaj plain which demands proper strategies and qualitative approaches in the future. 相似文献