Comparing generalized Pareto models fitted to extreme observations: an application to the largest temperatures in Spain   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Andrés M. Alonso  Patricia de Zea Bermudez  Manuel G. Scotto 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(5):1221-1233

In this paper, a subsampling-based testing procedure for the comparison of the exceedance distributions of stationary time series is introduced. The proposed testing procedure has a number of advantages including the fact that the assumption of stationary can be relaxed for some specific forms of non-stationary and also that the two time series are not required to be independently-generated. For this purpose, a test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and the L ₁-Wasserstein distances between generalized Pareto distributions is introduced and studied in some detail. The performance of the testing procedure is illustrated through a simulation study and with an empirical application to a set of data concerning daily maximum temperature in the 17 autonomous communities of Spain for the period 1990–2004. The autonomous communities were clustered according to the similarities of the fitted generalized Pareto models and then mapped. The cluster analysis reveals a clear distinction between the four northeast communities on the shores of the Bay of Biscay (which are the regions exhibiting milder temperatures) and the remaining regions. A second cluster corresponds to the southern Mediterranean area and the central region which corresponds to the communities with highest temperatures.  相似文献   

Innovative Germicidal UV and Photocatalytic System Dedicated to Aircraft Cabin Eliminates Volatile Organic Compounds and Pathogenic Micro‐Organisms          下载免费PDF全文

Laurent Gorvel  Matthieu Yver  Evelyne Robert  Michel Harmant  Manuel Rosa‐Calatrava  Bruno Lina  Jean Pierre Gorvel  Vincent Moulès  Raphaël Albalate  Carole Gaüzère 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(6):703-712

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On Mid-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Groups and Flare Index     

Blanca Mendoza  V��ctor Manuel Velasco-Herrera 《Solar physics》2011,271(1-2):169-182

In this work we study the mid-term periodicities (MTPs), between 1 and 2 years, of the sunspot groups and the flare index (FI), by separating the data into hemispheres and spectral bands (SBs) according to the most significant periodicities presented by these phenomena. We found that the MTP of sunspot groups has a diminished power during the Modern Minimum and an increased power during the Modern Maximum, with the exception of cycle 20. For flares, the MTP has a diminished power during the low activity cycle 20, and an increased power during cycles 21 and 22. Therefore, for both sunspot groups and FI, cycle 20 shows a very diminished power followed by the active and higher-power cycles 21 and 22; cycle 23 shows a weaker power than cycles 21 and 22. It is uncertain whether MTP can be a precursor of a long-term minimum of solar activity or not, as has been previously suggested. Also, there is no one-to-one correlation between the cycle intensity and the importance of MTP. Concerning the quasi-biennial periodicities and the theory of two kinds of dynamos, we notice the tendency that higher-power cycles mean weaker coupling in the model. Concerning the hemispheric north-south asymmetry, for sunspot groups the southern hemisphere dominates in most of the SBs, while for FI the northern hemisphere dominates for all the SBs. Additionally, the time lag found between the two hemispheres indicates that the degrees of coupling in the photosphere for sunspot groups and in the corona for flares are between moderate and strong. Finally, the modulation shown by the MTP time series suggests that these periodicities are the product of chaotic quasi-periodic processes and not of stochastic processes.  相似文献   

Symmetric horseshoe periodic orbits in the general planar three-body problem     

Abimael Bengochea  Manuel Falconi  Ernesto Pérez-Chavela 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,333(2):399-408

We present some families of horseshoe periodic orbits in the general planar three-body problem for the case of two equal masses. The considered system is a symmetric version of the one formed by Saturn, Janus and Epimetheus. We use a mass ratio equal to 35×10⁻⁵, corresponding to 10⁵ times the Saturn-Janus mass parameter of the restricted case; for this mass ratio the satellites have a significantly bigger influence on the planet than in the classical Saturn, Janus and Epimetheus system. To obtain periodic orbits, we search those horseshoe orbits passing through two reversible configurations. A particular kind of periodic orbits where the minor bodies follow the same path is discussed.  相似文献   

Hydrogen emissions from Erebus volcano, Antarctica     

Yves Moussallam  Clive Oppenheimer  Alessandro Aiuppa  Gaetano Giudice  Manuel Moussallam  Philip Kyle 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(9):2109-2120

The continuous measurement of molecular hydrogen (H₂) emissions from passively degassing volcanoes has recently been made possible using a new generation of low-cost electrochemical sensors. We have used such sensors to measure H₂, along with SO₂, H₂O and CO₂, in the gas and aerosol plume emitted from the phonolite lava lake at Erebus volcano, Antarctica. The measurements were made at the crater rim between December 2010 and January 2011. Combined with measurements of the long-term SO₂ emission rate for Erebus, they indicate a characteristic H₂ flux of 0.03?kg s^–1 (2.8?Mg? day^–1). The observed H₂ content in the plume is consistent with previous estimates of redox conditions in the lava lake inferred from mineral compositions and the observed CO₂/CO ratio in the gas plume (～0.9 log units below the quartz–fayalite–magnetite buffer). These measurements suggest that H₂ does not combust at the surface of the lake, and that H₂ is kinetically inert in the gas/aerosol plume, retaining the signature of the high-temperature chemical equilibrium reached in the lava lake. We also observe a cyclical variation in the H₂/SO₂ ratio with a period of ～10?min. These cycles correspond to oscillatory patterns of surface motion of the lava lake that have been interpreted as signs of a pulsatory magma supply at the top of the magmatic conduit.  相似文献   

Morphometric and molecular data on two mitochondrial genes of a newly discovered chimaeran fish (Hydrolagus melanophasma, Chondrichthyes)     

José De La Cruz-Agüero  Francisco Javier García-Rodríguez  Víctor Manuel Cota-Gómez  Felipe Neri Melo-Barrera  Rogelio González-Armas 《Ocean Science Journal》2012,47(2):147-153

Fresh and preserved (type material) specimens of the black ghost chimaera Hydrolagus melanophasma were compared for morphometric characteristics. A molecular comparison was also performed on two mitochondrial gene sequences (12S rRNA and 16S rRNA gene sequences). While significant differences in measurements were found, the differences were not attributable to sexual dimorphism or the quality of the specimens, but to the sample size and the type of statistical tests. The result of the genetic characterization showed that 12S rRNA and 16S rRNA genes represented robust molecular markers that characterized the species.  相似文献   

Taphonomic analysis of small mammal bone remains preyed upon by wildcats (Carnivora: Felidae) from the central Monte Desert (Mendoza,Argentina)          下载免费PDF全文

José Manuel López  María I. Rosi  Solana Tabeni  Benjamín Bender  Horacio Chiavazza 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2017,46(2):282-293

The present study analysed the taphonomic characteristics of small mammal bone accumulations produced by small felids in an area from the central Monte Desert (Mendoza, Argentina). In order to provide criteria to identify the role that these predators had in the formation of zooarchaeological assemblages, the anatomical representation, bone breakage patterns and degrees of digestive corrosion were evaluated. The main taphonomic results are: low average values for the relative abundance of skeletal elements; greater representation of mandibles, maxillae, isolated incisors, humeri and femora than the remaining elements; preponderance of cranial elements with high proportion of isolated teeth; elevated frequencies of proximal limb bones compared with distal parts; high degree of breakage in all skeletal elements and digestive corrosion on almost all diagnostic bones (mainly moderate and heavy). The values of the studied taphonomic variables indicate that small felids in this area made severe alterations to the bones of their prey (mainly rodents), attributable to the category of extreme modifier, while preserving enough skeletal elements to allow their taphonomic characterization. Tooth marks or grooves on bone surfaces produced by scratching and chewing were not detected. The low relative abundance of skeletal elements, the high degree of breakage and the elevated frequency of elements with digestion traces represent general taphonomic patterns that fall within those reported for other South American small carnivores.  相似文献   

Daily morphological changes determined by high‐energy events on an embayed beach: a qualitative model     

Cristina Celia Martins  Michel Michaelovitch de Mahiques  João Manuel Alveirinho Dias 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(4):487-495

This paper examines the daily morphological responses of Sununga Beach, an embayed beach located on the south‐eastern Brazilian coast, to storms in the South Atlantic Ocean. The main mechanisms and timing of beach erosion and accretion, the relationship between wave height and direction, and beach volume changes are considered, to establish a qualitative model for short‐term embayed beach morphological changes. The methodology consisted of daily topographic surveys during the month of May in 2001, 2002, and 2003, using an RTK‐GPS (real‐time kinematics – global positioning system). Weather and wave model results were used to correlate hydrodynamics and beach morphology. The results indicate that the morphodynamics of Sununga Beach are characterized by a process of beach rotation, which occurred more or less clearly during all three surveys. Unlike what has been commonly described in the literature for longer time intervals and alternations of fair and stormy weather, the beach rotation processes on Sununga Beach occurred under conditions of moderate‐to‐high wave energy change (wave heights greater than 2 m). An integrated evaluation of the behaviour of the meteorological aspects, together with beach morphology, enabled us to recognize that extra‐tropical cyclones were the most important agent in remobilizing the beach planform, whether in beach rotation or in cross‐shore erosion. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Adjoint free four-dimensional variational data assimilation for a storm surge model of the German North Sea   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Xiangyang Zheng  Roberto Mayerle  Qianguo Xing  José Manuel Fernández Jaramillo 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(8):1037-1050

In this paper, a data assimilation scheme based on the adjoint free Four-Dimensional Variational(4DVar) method is applied to an existing storm surge model of the German North Sea. To avoid the need of an adjoint model, an ensemble-like method to explicitly represent the linear tangent equation is adopted. Results of twin experiments have shown that the method is able to recover the contaminated low dimension model parameters to their true values. The data assimilation scheme was applied to a severe storm surge event which occurred in the North Sea in December 5, 2013. By adjusting wind drag coefficient, the predictive ability of the model increased significantly. Preliminary experiments have shown that an increase in the predictive ability is attained by narrowing the data assimilation time window.  相似文献   

Stratigraphic and geochemical study of the organic-rich black shales in the Tarcău Nappe of the Moldavidian Domain (Carpathian Chain,Romania)     

Habib Belayouni  Angelida Di Staso  Francesco Guerrera  Manuel Martín Martín  Crina Miclǎuş  Francisco Serrano  Mario Tramontana 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2009,98(1):157-176

An integrated stratigraphic analysis has been made of the Tarcău Nappe (Moldavidian Domain, Eastern Romanian Carpathians), coupled with a geochemical study of organic-rich beds. Two Main Sequence Boundaries (Early Oligocene and near to the Oligocene–Aquitanian boundary, respectively) divide the sedimentary record into three depositional sequences. The sedimentation occurred in the central area of a basin supplied by different and opposite sources. The high amount of siliciclastics at the beginning of the Miocene marks the activation of the “foredeep stage”. The successions studied are younger than previously thought and they more accurately date the deformation of the different Miocene phases affecting the Moldavidian Basin. The intervals with black shales identified are related to two main separate anoxic episodes with an age not older than Late Rupelian and not before Late Chattian. The most important organic-rich beds correspond to the Lower Menilites, Bituminous Marls and Lower Dysodilic Shales Members (Interval 2). These constitute a good potential source rock for petroleum, with homogeneous Type II oil-prone organic matter, highly lipidic and thermally immature. The deposition of black shales has been interpreted as occurring within a deep, periodically isolated and tectonically controlled basin.  相似文献