T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1     

Jo R?islien  Henning Omre 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(7):821-849

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.  相似文献   

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage     

Michael Crozier  John McClure  Jessica Vercoe  Marc Wilson 《Area》2006,38(2):143-152

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.  相似文献   

Late Early Miocene lake deposits near Mauensee, central Switzerland: Fish fauna (otoliths, teeth), accompanying biota and palaeoecology     

Jürg Jost  Daniel K?lin  Tanja Schulz-Mirbach  Bettina Reichenbacher 《Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae》2006,99(3):309-326

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韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约——以北阿尔金巴什考供韧性剪切带为例   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

戚学祥李海兵  吴才来陈松永 《地质通报》2005,24(3):252-257

韧性剪切变形对岩石地球化学行为的制约一直是地质学家们探讨的课题。本文以构成北阿尔金红柳沟——拉配泉俯冲碰撞杂岩带与北阿尔金地块边界的巴什考供斜向逆冲型韧性剪切带为例，通过对韧性剪切带内花岗岩变形前后不同变形强度构造岩的地球化学组成进行对比，确定等比线斜率，探讨韧性变形对岩石体积和成分变异的影响。计算结果表明，在糜棱岩化过程中，糜棱岩化花岗岩体积亏损21％，花岗质糜棱岩体积亏损31％。质量平衡计算结果和等比线图表明，韧；陛剪切作用导致SiO2，流失量最大，A12O3、K2O及Ba、Rb、Sr等都有不同程度的丢失，显示出较强的活动性，MnO、P2O5、Sc位于等比线上或附近，表现出相对的稳定性。岩石中活动组分的变异是流体渗滤作用引起的，不活动组分的变异是体．积亏损造成的。  相似文献   

A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Marc J. Metzger  Rik Leemans  Dagmar Schrter 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2005,7(4):253-267

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.  相似文献   

A Note On Surface Humidity Measurements In The Cold Canadian Environment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stephen J. Déry  Marc Stieglitz 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,102(3):491-497

In the cold Canadian environment, humidity measurements can be verydifficult to conduct. In this brief communication, humidity observationstaken by two different sensors at six remote Canadian Arctic locations arecompared. The observations collected by Vaisala HMP35CF sensors displaya strong tendency toward the ice saturation point whereas dew cell instrumentsexhibit significantly lower values of relative humidity with respect to ice (RH_i).Humidity data collected by HMP35CF hygrometers are therefore unreliable sincethey are subject to persistent icing that lead them to record values of RH_i near 100%, irrespective of the air temperature. The high humidity bias emerges atmeteorological stations mounted with the HMP35CF probes since these instrumentsare usually neither sheltered nor heated, and are not attended to at regular intervals. Thus, great care must be taken in utilizing humidity data recorded by HMP35CF sensors across the network of climate autostations in Canada.  相似文献   

Seismic response of self‐centring hysteretic SDOF systems     

Constantin Christopoulos  Andr Filiatrault  Bryan Folz 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(5):1131-1150

The seismic response of single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems incorporating flag‐shaped hysteretic structural behaviour, with self‐centring capability, is investigated numerically. For a SDOF system with a given initial period and strength level, the flag‐shaped hysteretic behaviour is fully defined by a post‐yielding stiffness parameter and an energy‐dissipation parameter. A comprehensive parametric study was conducted to determine the influence of these parameters on SDOF structural response, in terms of displacement ductility, absolute acceleration and absorbed energy. This parametric study was conducted using an ensemble of 20 historical earthquake records corresponding to ordinary ground motions having a probability of exceedence of 10% in 50 years, in California. The responses of the flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF systems are compared against the responses of similar bilinear elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF systems. In this study the elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF systems are assigned parameters representative of steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) with post‐Northridge welded beam‐to‐column connections. In turn, the flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF systems are representative of steel MRFs with newly proposed post‐tensioned energy‐dissipating connections. Building structures with initial periods ranging from 0.1 to 2.0s and having various strength levels are considered. It is shown that a flag‐shaped hysteretic SDOF system of equal or lesser strength can always be found to match or better the response of an elasto‐plastic hysteretic SDOF system in terms of displacement ductility and without incurring any residual drift from the seismic event. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling of Tsunami Propagation in the Vicinity of the French Coast of the Mediterranean   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Pelinovsky  Efim  Kharif  Christian  Riabov  Igor  Francius  Marc 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(2):135-159

The problem of tsunami-risk for the French coast of the Mediterraneanis discussed. Historical data of tsunami manifestation on the French coast are described and analysed.Numerical simulation of potential tsunamis in the Ligurian Sea is done and the tsunami wave heightdistribution along the French coast is calculated. For the earthquake magnitude 6.8 (typical value forMediterranean) the tsunami phenomenon has a very local character. It is shown that the tsunami tide-gaugerecords in the vicinity of Cannes–Imperia present irregularoscillations with characteristic periodof 20–30 min and total duration of 10–20h.Tsunami propagating from the Ligurian sea to the west coastof France have significantly lesser amplitudes and they are more low-frequency (period of 40–50min).The effect of far tsunamis generated in the southern Italy and Algerian coast is studied also, thedistribution of the amplitudes along the French coast for far tsunamis is more uniform.  相似文献   

Cosmogenic-nuclide ages for New England coastal moraines, Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA     

Greg Balco  John O.H. Stone  Stephen C. Porter  Marc W. Caffee   《Quaternary Science Reviews》2002,21(20-22)

Cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages for 13 glacially transported boulders atop the Martha's Vineyard moraine, MA, USA, indicate that the southeastern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet reached its maximum extent during the last glaciation 23,200±500 yr ago. Another 10 age determinations from the younger Buzzards Bay moraine near Woods Hole, MA, indicate that this moraine complex was formed 18,800±400 yr ago. These ages correlate approximately with the terminations of cooling cycles recorded in Greenland ice cores and coeval ice-rafting events, suggesting that the marginal position of this sector of the ice sheet was tightly coupled to North Atlantic climate during the last glacial maximum.  相似文献   

Abundance and distribution of PGE and Au in the island-arc mantle: implications for sub-arc metasomatism   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Pavel Kepezhinskas  Marc J. Defant  Elisabeth Widom 《Lithos》2002,60(3-4):113-128

Ultramafic xenoliths from a veined mantle wedge beneath the Kamchatka arc have non-chondritic, fractionated chondrite-normalized platinum-group element (PGE) patterns. Depleted (e.g., low bulk-rock Al₂O₃ and CaO contents) mantle harzburgites show clear enrichment in the Pd group relative to the Ir group PGEs and, in most samples, Pt relative to Rh and Pd. These PGE signatures most likely reflect multi-stage melting which selectively concentrates Pt in Pt–Fe alloys while strongly depleting the sub-arc mantle wedge in incompatible elements. Elevated gold concentrations and enrichment of strongly incompatible enrichment (e.g., Ba and Th) in some harzburgites suggest a late-stage metasomatism by slab-derived, saline hydrous fluids. Positive Pt, Pd, and Au anomalies coupled with Ir depletions in heavily metasomatized pyroxenite xenoliths probably reflect the relative mobility of the Pd and Ir groups (especially Os) during sub-arc metasomatism which is consistent with Os systematics in arc mantle nodules. Positive correlations between Pt, Pd, and Au and various incompatible elements (Hf, U, Ta, and Sr) also suggest that both slab-derived hydrous fluids and siliceous melts were involved in the sub-arc mantle metasomatism beneath the Kamchatka arc.  相似文献