Extreme value statistics for annual minimum and trough-under-threshold precipitation at different spatio-temporal scales     

Martijn J. Booij  Marcel J. M. de Wit 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1289-1301

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to quantify meteorological droughts and assign return periods to these droughts. Moreover, the relation between meteorological and hydrological droughts is explored. This has been done for the River Meuse basin in Western Europe at different spatial and temporal scales to enable comparison between different data sources (e.g. stations and climate models). Meteorological drought is assessed in two ways: using annual minimum precipitation amounts as a function of return period, and using troughs under threshold as a function of return period. The Weibull extreme value type 3 distribution has been fitted to both sources of information. Results show that the trough-under-threshold precipitation is larger than the annual minimum precipitation for a specific return period. Annual minimum precipitation values increase with spatial scale, being most pronounced for small temporal scales. The uncertainty in annual minimum point precipitation varies between 68% for the 30-day precipitation with a return period of 100 years, and 8% for the 120-day precipitation with a return period of 10 years. For spatially-averaged values, these numbers are slightly lower. The annual discharge deficit is significantly related to the annual minimum precipitation.

Citation Booij, M. J. & de Wit, M. J. M. (2010) Extreme value statistics for annual minimum and trough-under-threshold precipitation at different spatio-temporal scales. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1289–1301.  相似文献   

Time–Latitudinal Development of the White-Light Coronal Structures over a Solar Cycle     

Marcel BělÍk  Eva MarkovÁ  Vojtech Rušin  Milan Minarovjech 《Solar physics》2004,224(1-2):269-275

Large-scale coronal structures (helmet streamers) observed in the white-light corona during total solar eclipses and/or with ground-based coronagraphs are mostly located only above quiescent types of prominences. These helmet streamers are maintained due to the magnetic fields of the Sun. Time–latitudinal distribution of prominences during a solar cycle, however, shows both the poleward and equatorward migrations, similar to the 530.3 nm emission corona (the green corona) intensities. Distribution of observed coronal helmet streamers during total solar eclipses, enlarged with the helmet streamers as were obtained by the ground-based coronagraph observations, are compared with the heliographic distribution of prominences and the green corona intensities for the first time. It is shown that the distribution of above-mentioned helmet streamers, reflects – roughly – the time–latitudinal distribution of prominences and emission corona branches, and migrates together with them over a solar cycle.  相似文献   

Depth-profiles and surface enrichment of the halogens in four Antarctic H5 chondrites and in two non-Antarctic chondrites     

Marcel Langenauer  Urs Krhenbühl 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1993,28(1):98-104

Abstract— Depth-profiles of F, Cl, Br and I concentrations were determined in four different Antarctic H5 chondrites from the Allan Hills and in the two chondrites Allende (C3) and Holbrook (L6). Pieces of the meteorites were studied by analysis of stepwise removed layers of 0.5–1.0 mm thickness up to a depth of 9 mm. Neutron activation analysis and ion-selective potentiometry were used for the determination of Cl, Br, I and for F, respectively. The Antarctic meteorites show higher concentrations of the halogens at the surface compared to the interior. The highest enrichment factors are found for I and Cl and the lowest for Br. In contrast, F shows the steepest concentration gradient and is only enriched in the first 2.5 mm below the surface. The other halogens have penetrated deeper into the meteorites. The measured enrichments at the surfaces are not correlated to the visible degree of weathering. The analysed non-Antarctic meteorites, which were recovered shortly after their observed fall, demonstrate similar halogen concentrations at the surface, including the fusion crust, as in the interior. Based on these results we present a model to estimate the degree of contamination and the relation to the duration of exposure at the surface of the Antarctic ice.  相似文献   

Mantle dynamics and mantle melting beneath Niuafo’ou Island and the northern Lau back-arc basin   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Marcel Regelous  Simon Turner  Trevor J. Falloon  Paul Taylor  John Gamble  Trevor Green 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2008,156(1):103-118

A suite of young volcanic basaltic lavas erupted on the intra-plate island of Niuafo’ou and at active rifts and spreading centres (the King’s Triple Junction and the Northeastern Lau Spreading Centre) in the northern Lau Basin is used to examine the pattern of mantle flow and the dynamics of melting beneath this complex back-arc system. All lavas contain variable amounts of a subduction related component inherited from the Tonga subduction zone to the east. All lavas have higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, lower ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and more radiogenic Pb isotope compositions than basalts erupted at the Central Lau Spreading Centre in the central Lau Basin, and are interpreted as variable mixtures of subduction-modified, depleted upper mantle, and mantle residues derived from melting beneath the Samoan Islands which has leaked through a tear in the subducting Pacific Plate beneath the Vitiaz Lineament at the northern edge of the Lau Basin. Our data can be used to map out the present-day distribution of Samoan mantle in this region, and show that it influences the compositions of lavas erupted as far as 400 km from the Samoan Islands. The distribution of Samoan-influenced lavas implies south- and southwest-wards mantle flow rates of >4 cm/year. U-series disequilibria in historic Niuafo’ou lavas have average (²³⁰Th/²³⁸U) = 1.13, (²³¹Pa/²³⁵U) = 2.17, (²²⁶Ra/²³⁰Th) = 2.11, and together with major and trace element data require ∼5% partial melting of mantle at between 2 and 3 GPa, with a residual porosity of 0.002 and an upwelling rate of 1 cm year⁻¹. We suggest that intraplate magmatism in the northern Lau Basin results from decompression melting during southward flow of mantle from beneath old (110–120 Ma), relatively thick Pacific oceanic lithosphere to beneath young (<5 Ma), thinner oceanic lithosphere beneath the northern Lau Basin.  相似文献   

Comment on “Lipids of marine Archaea: Patterns and provenance in the water column and sediments” by Turich et al. (2007)     

Stefan Schouten  Marcel T.J. van der Meer  Ellen C. Hopmans  Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(21):5342-5346

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Development and extension of an aggregated scale model: Part 2 — Extensions to ASMITA     

Ian Townend  Zheng Bing Wang  Marcel Stive  Zeng Zhou 《中国海洋工程》2016,30(5):651-670

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From Jurassic rifting to Cretaceous subduction in NW Iranian Azerbaijan: geochronological and geochemical signals from granitoids     

Anna?LechmannEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Jean-Pierre?Burg  Peter?Ulmer  Ali?Mohammadi  Marcel?Guillong  Mohammad?Faridi 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(12):102

Previous interpretations of a Jurassic subduction in Iran were based on trace element classification diagrams for granitoids, but their reliability is questionable, underscored by modern examples of continental break-up zones such as the Baja California. We present new field observations, bulk rock geochemistry, Sr and Nd isotope analyses and U–Pb zircon geochronology to assess the age and tectonic setting of previously undated intermediate to felsic magmatic rocks cropping out in the Precambrian basement of NW Iranian Azerbaijan. The geochronology revealed an uneven distribution in space and time: Late Jurassic (159–154 Ma) intrusions and dikes are alkaline to calc-alkaline. Their melt source is mantle dominated with a distinct continental contribution disclosed by radiogenic isotopes and abundant inherited zircon cores. Mid-Cretaceous (112–96 Ma) plutonic bodies and associated volcanic rocks occur only to the east of the major Siah Cheshmeh–Khoy Fault. They have geochemical signatures typical of a metasomatized mantle. In consistence with the sedimentation history of the area, our new interpretation attributes the Late Jurassic magmatism to thinning of a continental lithosphere in a rift-related setting. Mid-Cretaceous magmatism was produced by oceanic subduction beneath the Central Iran continent. We interpret the 40-Ma age gap between the two magmatic episodes as the time of opening of the oceanic basin witnessed by the Khoy ophiolite in the study area.  相似文献   

The geoarchaeological and paleoenvironmental context of Paleoindian sites in western Middle Park,Colorado, USA     

James H. Mayer  Richard G. Reider  Marcel Kornfeld 《Geoarchaeology》2010,25(2):151-194

Geoarchaeological investigations in western Middle Park provide important information for understanding the soil‐stratigraphic context of Paleoindian components, as well as the latest Quaternary environmental change and landscape evolution in a Southern Rocky Mountain intermontane basin. Paleoindian components are associated with the oldest two of four latest Quaternary stratigraphic units (1–4) recognized in co‐alluvial mantles (combined slopewash and colluvium) in uplands and in alluvial valley fills. Limited data suggest accumulation of unit 1 as early as ∼12,500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. in alluvial valleys and by at least ∼11,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. in uplands was followed by brief stability and soil formation. A relatively widespread disconformity marks earliest Holocene erosion and substantial removal of latest Pleistocene deposits in upland and alluvial settings followed by unit 2 deposition ∼10,000–9000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., perhaps signaling the abrupt onset of an intensified summer monsoon. In situ Paleoindian components in uplands are found in a moderately developed buried soil (the Kremmling soil) formed in units 1 and 2 in thin (≤1m) hillslope co‐alluvial mantles. The Kremmling soil reflects geomorphic stability in upland and alluvial settings ∼9000–4500 ¹⁴C yr BP, and represents a buried landscape with the potential to contain additional Paleoindian components, although elsewhere in western Middle Park Early Archaic components are documented in morphologically similar soils. Kremmling soil morphology, the relative abundance of charcoal in unit 2 relative to younger units, and charcoal morphology indicate the expansion of forest cover, including Pinus, and grass cover during the early and middle Holocene, suggesting conditions moister than present. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

Experimental constraints on Pt, Pd and Au partitioning and fractionation in silicate melt–sulfide–oxide–aqueous fluid systems at 800 °C, 150 MPa and variable sulfur fugacity     

Aaron S. Bell  Adam Simon  Marcel Guillong 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(19):5778-5792

We have performed experiments to constrain the effect of sulfur fugacity (fS₂) and sulfide saturation on the fractionation and partitioning behavior of Pt, Pd and Au in a silicate melt–sulfide crystal/melt–oxide–supercritical aqueous fluid phase–Pt–Pd–Au system. Experiments were performed at 800 °C, 150 MPa, with oxygen fugacity (fO₂) fixed at approximately the nickel–nickel oxide buffer (NNO). Sulfur fugacity in the experiments was varied five orders of magnitude from approximately log fS₂ = 0 to log fS₂ = −5 by using two different sulfide phase assemblages. Assemblage one consisted initially of chalcopyrite plus pyrrhotite and assemblage two was loaded with chalcopyrite plus bornite. At run conditions pyrrhotite transformed compositionally to monosulfide solid solution (mss), chalcopyrite to intermediate solid solution (iss), and in assemblage two chalcopyrite and bornite formed a sulfide melt. Run-product silicate glass (i.e., quenched silicate melt) and crystalline materials were analyzed by using both electron probe microanalysis and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The measured concentrations of Pt, Pd and Au in quenched silicate melt in runs with log fS₂ values ranging from approximately 0.0 to −5.0 do not exhibit any apparent dependence on fS₂. The measured Pt, Pd and Au concentrations in mss do vary as a function of fS₂. The measured Pt, Pd and Au concentrations in iss do not appear dependent on fS₂. The data suggest that fS₂, working in concert with fO₂, via the determinant role that these variables play in controlling the magmatic sulfide phase assemblage and the solubility of Pt, Pd and Au as lattice bound components in magmatic sulfide phases, is a controlling factor on the budgets of Pt, Pd and Au during the evolution of magmatic systems.  相似文献   

On the photodissociation of water vapour in the mesosphere     

Marcel Nicolet 《Planetary and Space Science》1984,32(7):871-880

The photodissociation of water vapour in the mesosphere depends on the absorption of solar radiation in the region (175–200 nm) of the O₂ Schumann-Runge band system and also at H-Lyman alpha. The photodissociation products are OH + H, OH + H, O + 2H and H₂ + O at Lyman alpha; the percentages for these four channels are 70, 8, 12 and 10%, respectively, but OH + H is the only channel between 175 and 200 nm. Such proportions lead to a production of H atoms corresponding to practically the total photodissociation of H₂O, while the production of H₂ molecules is only 10% of the H₂O photodissociation by Lyman alpha.The photodissociation frequency (s^?1) at Lyman alpha can be expressed by a simple formula where F_{10.7 cm} is the solar radioflux at 10.7 cm and N the total number of O₂ molecules (cm^?2), and when the following conventional value is accepted for the Lyman alpha solar irradiance at the top of the Earth's atmosphere ($\text{Δλ = 3.5}\text{A}\text{?}$) q_Lyα,∞ = 3 × 10¹¹ photons cm^?2 s^1?.The photodissociation frequency for the Schumann-Runge band region is also given for mesospheric conditions by a simple formula where J_SRB,∞(H₂O) = 1.2 × 10^?6 and 1.4 × 10^?6 s^?1 for quiet and active sun conditions, respectively.The precision of both formulae is good, with an uncertainty less than 10%, but their accuracy depends on the accuracy of observational and experimental parameters such as the absolute solar irradiances, the variable transmittance of O₂ and the H₂O effective absorption cross sections. The various uncertainties are discussed. As an example, the absolute values deduced from the above formulae could be decreased by about 25-20% if the possible minimum values of the solar irradiances were used.  相似文献