A volcanic activity alert-level system for aviation: review of its development and application in Alaska     

Guffanti  Marianne  Miller  Thomas P. 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1519-1533

Avalanche warning services (AWS) are operated to protect communities and traffic lines in avalanche-prone regions of the Alps and other mountain ranges. In times of high avalanche danger, these services may decide to close roads or to evacuate settlements. Closing decisions are based on field observations, avalanche release statistics, and snow forecasts issued by weather services. Because of the spatial variability in the snowpack and the insufficient understanding of avalanche triggering mechanisms, closing decisions are characterized by large uncertainties and the information based on which AWS have to decide is always incomplete. In this paper, we illustrate how signal detection theory can be applied to make better use of the information at hand. The proposed framework allows the evaluation of past road closures and points to how the decision performance of AWS could be improved. To illustrate the proposed framework, we evaluate the decision performance of two AWS in Switzerland and discuss the advantages of such a formalized decision-making approach.  相似文献   

Changes in the Abundance and Species Composition of Phytoplankton in the Last 150 Years in the Southern Black Sea     

Erik Askov Mousing  Thorbjørn Joest Andersen  Marianne Ellegaard 《Estuaries and Coasts》2013,36(6):1206-1218

Changes in total abundance and in species composition of phytoplankton in the last 150 years in the southern Black Sea were investigated through a paleoecological study of two sediment cores. The results show changes in the species composition and a marked increase in total abundance of siliceous protists after around 1960. In core 22 (42°13.534′ N/36°29.555′ E), the dominating species before 1960 were Cyclotella choctawhatcheeana and Thalassiosira oestrupii. In core 25 (42°6.212′ N/36°37.460′ E), the dominating species before 1960 were T. oestrupii, Cyclotella meneghiniana, C. choctawhatcheeana, and Pseudosolenia cf. calcar-avis. Core 22 was located in closer proximity to the rim current than core 25, and the differences in total abundance between the cores could be related to differences in local nutrient loading prior to 1960. After around 1960, both cores changed to a community dominated by C. choctawhatcheeana. The changes in total abundance and species composition after around 1960 could be related to the increased nutrient loading from the Danube River into the rim current after the late 1960s. The results also showed changes in both total abundance and in species composition of dinoflagellate cysts. The dominating dinoflagellate cysts recorded were Lingulodinium polyedrum, Polykrikos schwartzii, and Spiniferites spp.  相似文献   

Mussel farming can be used as a mitigation tool--a reply     

Petersen JK  Timmermann K  Carlsson M  Holmer M  Maar M  Lindahl O 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(2):452-4; author reply 455-6

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Numerical models of continental and submarine erosion: application to the northern Ligurian Margin (Southern Alps,France/Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Carole Petit  Sébastien Migeon  Marianne Coste 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(5):681-695

We present a new numerical surface process model allowing us to take into account submarine erosion processes due either to submarine landslides or to hyperpycnal currents. A first set of models show that the frequency of hyperpycnal flows influences the development of submarine canyons at the mouth of continental rivers. Further experiments show that an increase in submarine slope leads to faster regressive canyon erosion and a more dentritic canyon network, whereas increasing the height of the unstable sediment pile located on the shelf break leads to wider and less dendritic canyons. The models are then applied to the western segment of the north Ligurian margin (northwestern Mediterranean), which displays numerous submarine canyons with various sizes and morphologies. From west to east, canyon longitudinal profiles as well as margin‐perpendicular profiles progressively change from moderately steep, concave‐up shapes to steeper linear to convex‐up shapes suggesting increasing eastward margin uplift. Moreover, the foot of the margin is affected by a marked slope increase with evidences of mass transport due to landslides. Numerical models which reproduce well the North Ligurian margin morphologic features indicate that the western part of the margin is submitted to rather low (i.e. 0.4 mm yr^?1) uplift and intense submarine erosion due to frequent hyperpycnal currents, whereas the eastern part bears more rapid (i.e. 0.7 mm yr^?1) uplift and has little or no hyperpycnal currents. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Are fossil assemblages in a single sediment core from a small lake representative of total deposition of mite, chironomid, and plant macrofossil remains?     

Marianne Presthus Heggen  Hilary H. Birks  Oliver Heiri  John-Arvid Grytnes  H. John B. Birks 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,48(4):669-691

How representative of the whole-lake fossil assemblage are analyses from a single sediment core taken in the centre of a small lake? This question was addressed in five shallow Norwegian lakes that ranged in location from low-altitude, boreal-deciduous forest to mid-alpine environments. Surface-sediment samples were taken from the deepest part of each lake and in two transects running from the lake centre to shore, and analysed for mites, chironomids, and plant remains. Ordination techniques summarised patterns of variation between and within lakes. Correlations between whole-lake assemblages and water depth and sediment organic content (loss-on-ignition) were investigated. Representativeness of each sample of the whole-lake assemblage was determined by comparing Principal Components Analysis scores of the original data with those of Monte Carlo-simulated data sets, using the actual data as constraints in the simulations. The majority of samples are representative of the whole-lake assemblages. Littoral samples, however, are most frequently unrepresentative or poorly representative samples. Water depth is an important controlling variable. A sediment core from the lake centre has the highest probability of representing the whole-lake assemblage. It may, however, also yield the lowest concentrations of terrestrial remains. A sediment core from the slope is slightly more likely to be unrepresentative of the total plant macrofossil assemblage, but generally has higher concentrations of terrestrial remains. These site differences should be considered when choosing a core location. Overall, the three fossil types are deposited in similar patterns. Therefore they can be satisfactorily analysed using a single core.  相似文献   

The influence of temperature, moisture, and eolian activity on Holocene lake development in West Greenland     

Bianca B. Perren  N. John Anderson  Marianne S. V. Douglas  Sherilyn C. Fritz 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,48(1):223-239

Holocene paleolimnological records (diatoms, organic content, spectrally inferred sediment chlorophyll-a) from three West Greenland lakes (~67°N) situated along a transect from the outer coast to a nunatak at the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet are used to explore the nature of regional postglacial lake development and its relationship to Holocene climate evolution. The lakes were deglaciated asynchronously by approximately 4?ka (earliest on the coast) and thus their sediment records document different starting points of Holocene ontogeny, both temporally and paleoclimatically. Despite similar time-transgressive characteristics of the diatom stratigraphies, overarching climatic factors, principally effective moisture, and eolian inputs, govern individual lake development. The transition to Neoglaciation between 5.6 and 4?ka BP marks a shift toward a cooler, moister, windier climate from the aridity and higher temperatures of the mid-Holocene (8?C6?ka BP). A shift toward increased aridity, windiness, and eolian activity is documented in the interior lakes over the last 500?years. These lake records demonstrate the sensitivity of freshwater lakes in arid regions to changes in effective moisture and highlight the role of wind and eolian activity in Arctic lake environments.  相似文献   

Origin of light volatile hydrocarbon gases in mud volcano fluids, Gulf of Cadiz — Evidence for multiple sources and transport mechanisms in active sedimentary wedges     

Marianne Nuzzo  Edward R.C. Hornibrook  Fiona Gill  Christian Hensen  Richard D. Pancost  Matthias Haeckel  Anja Reitz  Florian Scholz  Vitor H. Magalhes  Warner Brückmann  Luis M. Pinheiro 《Chemical Geology》2009,266(3-4):359-372

Widespread mud volcanism across the thick (≤ 14 km) seismically active sedimentary prism of the Gulf of Cadiz is driven by tectonic activity along extensive strike–slip faults and thrusts associated with the accommodation of the Africa–Eurasia convergence and building of the Arc of Gibraltar, respectively. An investigation of eleven active sites located on the Moroccan Margin and in deeper waters across the wedge showed that light volatile hydrocarbon gases vented at the mud volcanoes (MVs) have distinct, mainly thermogenic, origins. Gases of higher and lower thermal maturities are mixed at Ginsburg and Mercator MVs on the Moroccan Margin, probably because high maturity gases that are trapped beneath evaporite deposits are transported upwards at the MVs and mixed with shallower, less mature, thermogenic gases during migration. At all other sites except for the westernmost Porto MV, δ¹³C–CH₄ and δ²H–CH₄ values of ~ − 50‰ and − 200‰, respectively, suggest a common origin for methane; however, the ratio of CH₄/(C₂H₆ + C₃H₈) varies from ~ 10 to > 7000 between sites. Mixing of shallow biogenic and deep thermogenic gases cannot account for the observed compositions which instead result mainly from extensive migration of thermogenic gases in the deeply-buried sediments, possibly associated with biodegradation of C₂₊ homologues and secondary methane production at Captain Arutyunov and Carlos Ribeiro MVs. At the deep-water Bonjardim, Olenin and Carlos Ribeiro MVs, generation of C₂₊-enriched gases is probably promoted by high heat flux anomalies which have been measured in the western area of the wedge. At Porto MV, gases are highly enriched in CH₄ having δ¹³C–CH₄ ~ − 50‰, as at most sites, but markedly lower δ²H–CH₄ values < − 250‰, suggesting that it is not generated by thermal cracking of n-alkanes but rather that it has a deep Archaeal origin. The presence of petroleum-type hydrocarbons is consistent with a thermogenic origin, and at sites where CH₄ is predominant support the suggestion that gases have experienced extensive transport during which they mobilized oil from sediments ~ 2–4 km deep. These fluids then migrate into shallower, thermally immature muds, driving their mobilization and extrusion at the seafloor. At Porto MV, the limited presence of petroleum in mud breccia sediments further supports the hypothesis of a predominantly deep microbial origin of CH₄.  相似文献   

Volcanic hazards to airports   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Marianne Guffanti  Gari C. Mayberry  Thomas J. Casadevall  Richard Wunderman 《Natural Hazards》2009,51(2):287-302

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies, Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries—USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom—have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators.  相似文献   

The upper mantle beneath the north-east Pacific rim: a comparison with the Gulf of California     

Marianne C. Walck 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,81(1):243-276

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Diatoms and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population dynamics: Reconstructions of salmon-derived nutrients over the past 2,200 years in two lakes from Kodiak Island, Alaska     

Irene Gregory-Eaves  John P. Smol  Marianne S.V. Douglas  Bruce P. Finney 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2003,30(1):35-53

The return of hundreds to millions of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), which have returned from the ocean to their natal nursery lake environment to spawn, can result in significant nutrient loading. By analyzing sedimentary diatom assemblages from nursery lakes, we demonstrated that a salmon-derived nutrient signal could be traced over time and be used to infer past sockeye salmon population dynamics. We conducted a 2,200 year paleolimnological study of two Alaskan sockeye salmon nursery lakes, Karluk and Frazer lakes. The two lakes are very similar, except that sockeye salmon were only introduced into Frazer Lake in 1951 (first spawners returned in 1956). In both lakes we found a strong correspondence between diatom assemblages and the number of adult salmon spawners recorded in the historical data (40 and 70 years for Frazer and Karluk lakes, respectively). Given this robust relationship, we then used our analyses of diatoms from Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years to gain insight into salmon-derived nutrient loading changes (which are directly related to the number of sockeye salmon spawners). The diatom record from Karluk Lake recorded dramatic species changes on both decadal and century timescales, and was strongly correlated with an independent indicator of sockeye salmon abundances, ¹⁵N. Together, these data suggest pronounced variability in sockeye salmon abundances at Karluk Lake over the past 2,200 years. The direct impacts of regional environmental variability were not likely responsible for the patterns apparent in Karluk Lake, as the diatom and ¹⁵N profiles from Frazer Lake were relatively stable prior to the introduction of sockeye salmon. Application of total phosphorus transfer functions to the Karluk and Frazer lakes' diatom records revealed that sockeye salmon carcasses substantially increased the trophic status in these lakes, which has important implications for the health of juvenile salmon that rear in nursery lakes. Overall, this paper illustrates the potential use of diatoms in reconstructing past sockeye salmon population dynamics, which in turn can lead to a greater understanding of the mechanisms influencing abundances of sockeye salmon.  相似文献