Erratum to: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordli  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):365-367

  相似文献   

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordl  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal variability in South America during the cold season   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mariano S. Alvarez  C. S. Vera  G. N. Kiladis  B. Liebmann 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(11-12):3253-3269

Intraseasonal (IS) variability in South America is analyzed during the cold season using 10–90 day bandpass filtered OLR anomalies (FOLR). IS variability explains a large percentage of variance with maximum values over Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil. The leading pattern of FOLR, as isolated from an EOF analysis, (Cold Season IS pattern, CSIS), is characterized by a monopole centered over southeastern South America (SESA) with a northwest-southeast orientation. CSIS induces a large modulation on daily precipitation anomalies, especially on both wet spells and daily precipitation extremes, which are favored during positive (wet) CSIS phases. Large-Scale OLR anomalies over the tropical Indian and west Pacific Oceans associated with CSIS exhibit eastward propagation along tropical latitudes. In addition, circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere reveal the presence of an anticyclonic anomaly over Antarctica with opposite-sign anomalies in middle latitudes 10 days before CSIS is maximum as well as evidence of Rossby wave-like patterns. Positive precipitation anomalies in SESA are favored during wet CSIS phases by the intensification of a cyclonic anomaly located further south, which is discernible over the southeastern Pacific for at least 14 days before CSIS peaks. The cyclonic anomaly evolution is accompanied by the intensification of an upstream anticyclonic anomaly, which remains quasi-stationary near the Antarctica Peninsula before the CSIS peak. We speculate that the stationary behavior of the anticyclonic center is favored by a hemispheric circulation anomaly pattern resembling that associated with a negative southern annular mode phase and a wavenumber 3–4 pattern at middle latitudes.  相似文献   

Seasonal changes in organotin compounds in sediments from the Bahía Blanca Estuary     

Pamela Y. Quintas  Ana L. Oliva  Andrés Arias  Claudia E. Domini  Mónica B. Alvarez  Mariano Garrido  Jorge E. Marcovecchio 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(8):659

  相似文献   

Geochemical modeling and low-frequency geoelectrical methods to evaluate the impact of an open dump in arid and deltaic environments     

Francisco?Javier?Gómez-Puentes  Marco?Antonio?Pérez-Flores  Jaime?Alonso?Reyes-LópezEmail author  Dina?L.?Lopez  Fernando?Herrera-Barrientos  Rafael?Onofre?García-Cueto  Socorro?Romero-Hernández  Fernando?Amílcar?Solís-Domínguez  Miguel?Martín-Loeches Garrido 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(13):1062

In Mexico, open dumps that are maintained by the municipality but provide no covering of waste are not uncommon. Further, disposal at these sites is often performed by burning. The aim of this study was to determine the leachate plume from an open dump located in a depositional deltaic environment, with arid climate, low rainfall and where the water table is about 2 m below the surface. The methodology comprised analysis of groundwater monitoring wells and geophysical and geochemical prospecting techniques. The 3D geoelectric interpretation shows a typical area of these depositional environments with low resistive values (10–20 Ω-m) associated with the presence of sands and clays interbedded. However, there is a very low resistivity zone associated with the dump’s impact which reaches values below 5 Ω-m, and it is located where the disposal and burning of wastes occurred. Another zone with values above 16 Ω-m appears as a limit for the advance of the saline. This is interpreted as a sandy lenses area. These sandy lenses with higher porosity transport aquifer’s water. Thus the dump is in direct contact by this conduct with clean groundwater. Piper diagrams constructed with the chemical data analysis reveal that the groundwater in the area corresponds to the chlorinated and/or sulfated sodium type, showing the impact caused by the dump. The monitoring well (NP8, on-site) with the highest dissolved solids content behaves anomalously and belongs to the more conductive zone according to the geoelectric profiles. The subsoil geochemical behavior is influenced by the seasonal water table variations provoking the dissolution of burned and unburned wastes, but the effects of slow flows in the direction of the regional flow are not discarded. Although the most impacted area within the dump is characterized to a depth of 10 m, there is a slow flow in the direction of the regional flow that has been moving pollutants out of the dumpsite during its almost 20 years of operation. The results of this study provide valuable information for the authorities to carry out an appropriate restoration project.  相似文献   

Detrital provenance of the Grenvillian Oaxacan Complex,southern Mexico: a zircon perspective     

Luigi A. Solari  Fernando Ortega-Gutiérrez  Mariano Elías-Herrera  Carlos Ortega-Obregón  Consuelo Macías-Romo  Margarita Reyes-Salas 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(5):1301-1315

The Oaxacan Complex is the largest exposure of Grenvillian-age rocks in Mexico, constituting the backbone of the Oaxaquia microcontinent. Whereas the main rock-forming events were previously established at 1,150–1,200 Ma (charnockite–syenite–gabbros), 1,020 Ma (AMCG suite), 990 Ma (granulite-facies metamorphism), and ca. 970 Ma post-tectonic pegmatites, no data are yet available to establish provenance links with other Grenville-age terranes. In this work, we studied detrital zircons belonging to 12 samples, all metamorphosed under granulite facies but variably affected by retrogression. Laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry U–Pb geochronology was employed on selected zircons to determine their crystallization age and geochemistry. The results of the analysis of about 100 crystals per sample show that the studied zircons range between ca. 940 and 1,400 Ma, with only three samples having zircons between 1,400 and 1,600 Ma, and only one showing older zircons up to ca. 1,775 Ma. Whereas some of the slightly discordant (1–5 %) zircons in several samples show ages younger than the granulite metamorphism (probably as a result of Pb loss), and thus a disturbed geochemical pattern (abnormal enrichment in LREE, decreasing HREE), a few metamorphic zircons show flat and depleted HREE patterns, contrasting with the igneous pattern of older zircons (positive Ce anomaly, negative Eu anomaly, enriched HREE pattern). The main distributions observed using the kernel density estimator diagrams fall in the range 975–995 Ma (six samples), 1,100 Ma (four samples) and 1,120–1,170 Ma (six samples). Only the southernmost sample shows a marked peak at ca. 1,400 Ma. The application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) statistical test to the studied samples and particularly the comparison of obtained P values yield interesting similarities. Overall, two sample groups show internal similarities, i.e., they may belong to the same source area, whereas only one sample is dissimilar, failing to pass the K–S test. Comparison of these data with the timing of comparable events in the Sveconorwegian orogens, the Sunsas and Rondonia-San Ignacio belts of Amazonia, and some of the Precambrian massifs cropping out in the Andes help to constrain possible Mesoproterozoic conjugate margins of Oaxaquia.  相似文献   

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organic matter quality and meiofauna in Galician sandy beaches, 6 months after the Prestige oil-spill     

Rodríguez JG  Incera M  de la Huz R  López J  Lastra M 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(7):1046-1052

  相似文献   

An operational-oriented approach to the assessment of low probability seismic ground motions for critical infrastructures     

Mariano Garcia-Fernandez  Karen Assatourians  Maria-Jose Jimenez 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(1):123-136

Extreme natural hazard events have the potential to cause significant disruption to critical infrastructure (CI) networks. Among them, earthquakes represent a major threat as sudden-onset events with limited, if any, capability of forecast, and high damage potential. In recent years, the increased exposure of interdependent systems has heightened concern, motivating the need for a framework for the management of these increased hazards. The seismic performance level and resilience of existing non-nuclear CIs can be analyzed by identifying the ground motion input values leading to failure of selected key elements. Main interest focuses on the ground motions exceeding the original design values, which should correspond to low probability occurrence. A seismic hazard methodology has been specifically developed to consider low-probability ground motions affecting elongated CI networks. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation, which allows for building long-duration synthetic earthquake catalogs to derive low-probability amplitudes. This approach does not affect the mean hazard values and allows obtaining a representation of maximum amplitudes that follow a general extreme-value distribution. This facilitates the analysis of the occurrence of extremes, i.e., very low probability of exceedance from unlikely combinations, for the development of, e.g., stress tests, among other applications. Following this methodology, extreme ground-motion scenarios have been developed for selected combinations of modeling inputs including seismic activity models (source model and magnitude-recurrence relationship), ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), hazard levels, and fractiles of extreme ground motion. The different results provide an overview of the effects of different hazard modeling inputs on the generated extreme motion hazard scenarios. This approach to seismic hazard is at the core of the risk analysis procedure developed and applied to European CI transport networks within the framework of the European-funded INFRARISK project. Such an operational seismic hazard framework can be used to provide insight in a timely manner to make informed risk management or regulating further decisions on the required level of detail or on the adoption of measures, the cost of which can be balanced against the benefits of the measures in question.  相似文献   

Preliminary prediction of damage to residential buildings following the 21st August 2017 Ischia earthquake     

Carlo Del Gaudio  Mariano Di Domenico  Paolo Ricci  Gerardo Mario Verderame 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4607-4637

On August 21st, 2017, an earthquake with duration magnitude M_d?=?4.0 and epicentre in Casamicciola Terme hit Ischia island, in the South of Italy. This event caused two fatalities and dozens of injured people. Moreover, despite the low magnitude, the earthquake produced significant damages to masonry and reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, with some partial or complete collapse of structures, in a very limited area close to the epicentre, while even at small distance from the most damaged zone the earthquake was just felt by local people and tourists. In the days after the event, discussions concerning the destructive effects of such an earthquake arose in the scientific community—as also reported by local and national media. In this paper, the seismic history of Ischia island is recalled to show and explain the peculiarity of the August 21st earthquake, which is also described in terms of ground motion and response spectra characteristics. The results of the first surveys carried out in Casamicciola Terme are reported, together with appropriate pictures, to introduce and explain the observed damage state of masonry and RC buildings in the epicentral zone. Then, data from the 15th general census of the population and dwellings (ISTAT) is used to define vulnerability classes according to the classification of the European Macrosismic Scale (EMS-98) (Grünthal, 1998). Seismic damage scenarios are then evaluated combining macro-seismic intensity values obtained using an interpolation method starting from QUEST macro-seismic survey data (Azzaro et al., 2017 ) and fragility curves for A-to-D vulnerability classes and for five damage states, from DS0 (no damage) to DS5 (collapse) trough a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The distributions of Usable, Temporarily or Partially Unusable, and Unusable buildings, which are obtained by using relationships between damage and usability judgments obtained through post-earthquake damage data collected after past seismic events, result in very good accordance with those published in September 1st, 2017 by the Department of Civil Protection, regarding a dataset of about 600 buildings.  相似文献   

Preliminary results on the determination of the theoretical nonadiabatic observable phase lag (ψT) using VIRGO color photometry     

R. Simoniello  R. Garrido  A. Jimnez 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2008,329(5):498-502

The helioseismic instruments aboard the SOHO satellite make it possible to measure solar oscillations as variations of the irradiance (VIRGO) or as variations of the photospheric velocity (GOLF). Theoretically, phase differences between different photometric bands are expected to be around 0 degrees over the p‐mode frequency range. By using VIRGO (red) and VIRGO (blue) data, we find a mean phase shift of 8.05 ± 1.81°, whereas by using VIRGO (green) and VIRGO (blue) data, we got a mean value of –1.04 ± 0.19°. Hence, when the analysis includes the VIRGO infrared range, the Sun's atmosphere does not follow an exact adiabatic behavior. In this study, we use the phase shifts obtained by VIRGO (green) and VIRGO (blue) to determine the non‐adiabatic parameter phase lag (ψ_T) as a function of frequency. To this aim, we applied the non radial linearized formula put in the complex form by Garrido: we found a mean value of ψ_T = 179.95°. The lowest value being ψ_T = 179.90°, the departure from theoretical predictions is less then a tenth of a degree over the entire p mode frequency range. We can state that the solar atmosphere has a behavior close to the adiabatic case, when the phase shifts and amplitude ratios are computed using VIRGO (green) and VIRGO (blue) data. Nevertheless this small deviation is significant. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献