Stepwise selection of functional covariates in forecasting peak levels of olive pollen     

Manuel Escabias  Mariano J. Valderrama  Ana M. Aguilera  M. Elena Santofimia  M. Carmen Aguilera-Morillo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(2):367-376

High levels of airborne olive pollen represent a problem for a large proportion of the population because of the many allergies it causes. Many attempts have been made to forecast the concentration of airborne olive pollen, using methods such as time series, linear regression, neural networks, a combination of fuzzy systems and neural networks, and functional models. This paper presents a functional logistic regression model used to study the relationship between olive pollen concentration and different climatic factors, and on this basis to predict the probability of high (and possibly extreme) levels of airborne pollen, selecting the best subset of functional climatic variables by means of a stepwise method based on the conditional likelihood ratio test.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Mariano García-Fernández 《Journal of Seismology》2013,17(2):203-203

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Seismic vulnerability of bridges in transport networks subjected to environmental deterioration   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Mariano Angelo Zanini  Carlo Pellegrino  Riccardo Morbin  Claudio Modena 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2013,11(2):561-579

This paper investigates the problem of management, maintenance and planning of interventions in transport networks located in seismic zones, in relation to the actual state of degradation of their most vulnerable elements, as bridges. The study consists in two phases: the first phase is concerned with definition of the seismic vulnerability of a typical bridge in the network, through the construction of fragility curves calculated taking into account the corrosion of the reinforcing steel as the main cause of environmental deterioration. Once the fragility curves of the deteriorated bridges are computed, the second phase consists in the analysis of the vulnerability of the transport network in which the bridges are included taking into account the modification of the traffic flows when bridge infrastructures are damaged. The results of this pilot study can be used as a first step for a proper allocation of economic resources in the planning of seismic retrofit interventions to minimize the overall risk and manage the immediate post-earthquake emergency phase and guide rescuers in reaching the affected and critical areas.  相似文献   

Terrestrial laser scanning to estimate plot-level forest canopy fuel properties     

Mariano García  F. Mark Danson  David Riaño  Emilio Chuvieco  F. Alberto Ramirez  Vishal Bandugula 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011

This paper evaluates the potential of a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) to characterize forest canopy fuel characteristics at plot level. Several canopy properties, namely canopy height, canopy cover, canopy base height and fuel strata gap were estimated. Different approaches were tested to avoid the effect of canopy shadowing on canopy height estimation caused by deployment of the TLS below the canopy. Estimation of canopy height using a grid approach provided a coefficient of determination of R² = 0.81 and an RMSE of 2.47 m. A similar RMSE was obtained using the 99th percentile of the height distribution of the highest points, representing the 1% of the data, although the coefficient of determination was lower (R² = 0.70). Canopy cover (CC) was estimated as a function of the occupied cells of a grid superimposed upon the TLS point clouds. It was found that CC estimates were dependent on the cell size selected, with 3 cm being the optimum resolution for this study. The effect of the zenith view angle on CC estimates was also analyzed. A simple method was developed to estimate canopy base height from the vegetation vertical profiles derived from an occupied/non-occupied voxels approach. Canopy base height was estimated with an RMSE of 3.09 m and an R² = 0.86. Terrestrial laser scanning also provides a unique opportunity to estimate the fuel strata gap (FSG), which has not been previously derived from remotely sensed data. The FSG was also derived from the vegetation vertical profile with an RMSE of 1.53 m and an R² = 0.87.  相似文献   

Aridity changes in the Temperate-Mediterranean transition of the Andes since ad 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings     

Duncan A. Christie  Jos�� A. Boninsegna  Malcolm K. Cleaveland  Antonio Lara  Carlos Le Quesne  Mariano S. Morales  Manfred Mudelsee  David W. Stahle  Ricardo Villalba 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(7-8):1505-1521

The Andes Cordillera acts as regional ??Water Towers?? for several countries and encompasses a wide range of ecosystems and climates. Several hydroclimatic changes have been described for portions of the Andes during recent years, including glacier retreat, negative precipitation trends, an elevation rise in the 0° isotherm, and changes in regional streamflow regimes. The Temperate-Mediterranean transition (TMT) zone of the Andes (35.5°?C39.5°S) is particularly at risk to climate change because it is a biodiversity hotspot with heavy human population pressure on water resources. In this paper we utilize a new tree-ring network of Austrocedrus chilensis to reconstruct past variations in regional moisture in the TMT of the Andes by means of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The reconstruction covers the past 657?years and captures interannual to decadal scales of variability in late spring?Cearly summer PDSI. These changes are related to the north?Csouth oscillations in moisture conditions between the Mediterranean and Temperate climates of the Andes as a consequence of the latitudinal position of the storm tracks forced by large-scale circulation modes. Kernel estimation of occurrence rates reveals an unprecedented increment of severe and extreme drought events during the last century in the context of the previous six centuries. Moisture conditions in our study region are linked to tropical and high-latitude ocean-atmospheric forcing, with PDSI positively related to Ni?o-3.4 SST during spring and strongly negatively correlated with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) during summer. Geopotential anomaly maps at 500-hPa show that extreme dry years are tightly associated with negative height anomalies in the Ross?CAmundsen Seas, in concordance with the strong negative relationship between PDSI and AAO. The twentieth century increase in extreme drought events in the TMT may not be related to ENSO but to the positive AAO trend during late-spring and summer resulting from a gradual poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks. This first PDSI reconstruction for South America demonstrates the highly significant hindcast skill of A. chilensis as an aridity proxy.  相似文献   

Evaluating restoration of man‐made slopes: a threshold approach balancing vegetation and rill erosion     

Mariano Moreno‐de las Heras  Rubén Díaz‐Sierra  José M. Nicolau  Miguel A. Zavala 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(10):1367-1377

The management of reclaimed slopes derived from industrial and civil activities (e.g. surface mining and road construction) requires the development of practical stability analysis approaches that integrate the processes and mechanisms that rule the dynamics of these ubiquitous emerging ecosystems. This work describes a new modelling approach focused on stability analysis of water‐limited reclaimed slopes, where interactive relationships between rill erosion and vegetation regulate ecosystem stability. Our framework reproduces two main groups of possible trends along the temporal evolution of reclaimed slopes: successful trends, characterized by widespread vegetation development and the effective control of rill erosion processes; and gullying trends, characterized by the progressive loss of vegetation and a sharp logistic increase in erosion rates. Furthermore, this analytical approach allows the determination of threshold values for the state variables (i.e. vegetation cover and rill erosion) that drive the system's stability, facilitating the identification of critical situations that require specific human intervention (e.g. revegetation or, in very problematic cases, revegetation combined with rill network destruction) to ensure the long‐term sustainability of the restored ecosystem. The application of our threshold analysis framework in Mediterranean‐dry reclaimed slopes derived from surface coal mining (the Teruel coalfield in central‐eastern Spain) showed a good field‐based performance. Therefore, we believe that this model is a valuable contribution for the management of water‐limited reclaimed systems, including those associated with rill erosion, as it provides a tool for the evaluation of restoration success and can play an important role in decision‐making during ecosystem restoration in severely disturbed landscapes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Petrogenesis of Al–silicate-bearing trondhjemitic migmatites from NE Sardinia, Italy     

Gabriele Cruciani  Marcello Franceschelli  Franco Marco Elter  Mariano Puxeddu  Daniela Utzeri 《Lithos》2008,102(3-4):554-574

The migmatites from Punta Sirenella (NE Sardinia) are layered rocks containing 3–5 vol.% of centimeter-sized stromatic leucosomes which are mainly trondhjemitic and only rarely granitic in composition. They underwent three deformation phases, from D₁ to D₃. The D₁ deformation shows a top to the NW shear component followed by a top to the NE/SE component along the XZ plane of the S₂ schistosity. Migmatization started early, during the compressional and crustal thickening stage of Variscan orogeny and was still in progress during the following extensional stage of unroofing and exhumation.

The trondhjemitic leucosomes, mainly consisting of quartz, plagioclase, biotite ± garnet ± kyanite ± fibrolite, retrograde muscovite and rare K-feldspar, are locally bordered by millimeter-sized biotite-rich melanosomes. The rare granitic leucosomes differ from trondhjemitic ones only in the increase in modal content of K-feldspar, up to 25%. Partial melting started in the kyanite field at about 700–720 °C and 0.8–0.9 GPa, and was followed by re-equilibration at 650–670 °C and 0.4–0.6 GPa, producing fibrolite–biotite intergrowth and coarse-grained muscovite.

The leucosomes have higher SiO₂, CaO, Na₂O, Sr and lower Al₂O₃, Fe₂O₃, MgO, TiO₂, K₂O, P₂O₅, Rb, Ba, Cr, V, Zr, Nb, Zn and REE content with respect to proximal hosts and pelitic metagreywackes. Sporadic anomalous high content of calcium and ferromagnesian elements in some leucosomes is due to entrainment of significant amounts of restitic plagioclase, biotite and accessory phases. The rare granitic leucosomes reveal peritectic K-feldspar produced by muscovite-dehydration melting. Most leucosomes show low REE content, moderately fractionated REE patterns and marked positive Eu anomaly. Proximal hosts and pelitic metagraywackes are characterized by higher REE content, more fractionated REE patterns and slightly negative Eu anomaly.

The trondhjemitic leucosomes were generated by H₂O-fluxed melting at 700 °C of a greywacke to pelitic–greywacke metasedimentary source-rock. The disequilibrium melting process is the most reliable melting model for Punta Sirenella leucosomes.  相似文献   

Zn-Al-rich chlorite in interleaved phyllosilicate grains from the low-temperature metamorphic Ordovician terrane of Iglesiente,south-west Sardinia,Italy     

Gabriele Cruciani  Marcello Franceschelli  Stefano Battaglia  Sandro Pasci  Mariano Puxeddu 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2015,109(6):713-718

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Is there a link between the neutron-star spin and the frequency of the kilohertz quasi-periodic oscillations?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mariano Méndez  Tomaso Belloni 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,381(2):790-796

There is a general consensus that the frequencies of the kilohertz quasi-periodic oscillations (kHz QPOs) in neutron-star low-mass X-ray binaries are directly linked to the spin of the neutron star. The root of this idea is the apparent clustering of the ratio of the frequency difference of the kHz QPOs, and the neutron-star spin frequency,  Δν/ν_s  , at around 0.5 and 1 in 10 systems for which these two quantities have been measured. Here, we re-examine all available data of sources for which there exist measurements of two simultaneous kHz QPOs and spin frequencies, and we advance the possibility that Δν and  ν_s  are not related to each other. We discuss ways in which this possibility could be tested with current and future observations.  相似文献   

Active-Region Twist Derived from Magnetic Tongues and Linear Force-Free Extrapolations     

Mariano Poisson  Marcelo López Fuentes  Cristina H. Mandrini  Pascal Démoulin 《Solar physics》2015,290(11):3279-3294

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