The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model     

Phuoc Khac‐Tien Nguyen  Lloyd Hock‐Chye Chua 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2878-2893

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dissolved nitrous oxide (N2O) dynamics in agricultural field drains and headwater streams in an intensive arable catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Zanist Q. Hama‐Aziz  Kevin M. Hiscock  Richard J. Cooper 《水文研究》2017,31(6):1371-1381

Indirect nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions produced by nitrogen (N) leaching into surface water and groundwater bodies are poorly understood in comparison to direct N₂O emissions from soils. In this study, dissolved N₂O concentrations were measured weekly in both lowland headwater streams and subsurface agricultural field drain discharges over a 2‐year period (2013–2015) in an intensive arable catchment, Norfolk, UK. All field drain and stream water samples were found to have dissolved N₂O concentrations higher than the water–air equilibrium concentration, illustrating that all sites were acting as a net source of N₂O emissions to the atmosphere. Soil texture was found to significantly influence field drain N₂O dynamics, with mean concentrations from drains in clay loam soils (5.3 μg N L^?1) being greater than drains in sandy loam soils (4.0 μg N L^?1). Soil texture also impacted upon the relationships between field drain N₂O concentrations and other water quality parameters (pH, flow rate, and nitrate (NO₃) and nitrite (NO₂) concentrations), highlighting possible differences in N₂O production mechanisms in different soil types. Catchment antecedent moisture conditions influenced the storm event mobilisation of N₂O in both field drains and streams, with the greatest concentration increases recorded during precipitation events preceded by prolonged wet conditions. N₂O concentrations also varied seasonally, with the lowest mean concentrations typically occurring during the summer months (JJA). Nitrogen fertiliser application rates and different soil inversion regimes were found to have no effect on dissolved N₂O concentrations, whereas higher N₂O concentrations recorded in field drains under a winter cover crop compared to fallow fields revealed cover crops are an ineffective greenhouse gas emission mitigation strategy. Overall, this study highlights the complex interactions governing the dynamics of dissolved N₂O concentrations in field drains and headwater streams in a lowland intensive agricultural catchment.  相似文献   

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16          下载免费PDF全文

Ricardo Sánchez‐Murillo  Ana M. Durán‐Quesada  Christian Birkel  Germain Esquivel‐Hernández  Jan Boll 《水文研究》2017,31(4):956-967

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.  相似文献   

Influence of heterogeneity on unsaturated hydraulic properties: (1) local heterogeneity and scale effect     

Pen‐Yuan Chen  Chu‐Hui Chen  Nien‐Sheng Hsu  Cheng‐Mau Wu  Jet‐Chau Wen 《水文研究》2012,26(23):3593-3603

Spatial heterogeneity is ubiquitous in nature, which may significantly affect the soil hydraulic property curves. The models of a closed‐form functional relationship of soil hydraulic property curves (e.g. VG model or exponential model) are valid at point or local scale based on a point‐scale hydrological process, but how do scale effects of heterogeneity have an influence on the parameters of these models when the models are used in a larger scale process? This paper uses a two‐dimensional variably saturated flow and solute transport finite element model (VSAFT2) to simulate variations of pressure and moisture content in the soil flume under a constant head boundary condition. By changing different numerical simulation block sizes, a quantitative evaluation of parameter variations in the VG model, resulting from the scale effects, is presented. Results show that the parameters of soil hydraulic properties are independent of scale in homogeneous media. Parameters of α and n in homogeneous media, which are estimated by using the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity curve (UHC) or the soil water retention curve (WRC), are identical. Variations of local heterogeneities strongly affect the soil hydraulic properties, and the scale affects the results of the parameter estimations when numerical experiments are conducted. Furthermore, the discrepancy of each curve becomes considerable when moisture content becomes closer to a dry situation. Parameters estimated by UHC are totally different from the ones estimated by WRC. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin     

Mohammed El Bastawesy  Safwat Gabr  Kevin White 《水文研究》2013,27(2):196-205

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Upper Cretaceous marine‐continental transition (Leonese Area,NW Spain) defined from integrated outcrop and seismic stratigraphy     

Antonio Herrero‐Hernndez  Fernando Gmez‐Fernndez  Francisco Javier Lpez‐Moro 《Geological Journal》2015,50(1):39-55

The Upper Cretaceous succession of the Leonese Area (NW Spain) comprises mixed clastic and carbonate sediments. This succession is divided into two lithostratigraphic units, the Voznuevo Member and the Boñar Formation, which represent fluvial, shoreface, intertidal, subtidal and open‐shelf sedimentary environments. Regional seismic interpretation and sequence stratigraphic analysis have allowed the study of lateral and vertical changes in the sedimentary record and the definition of third‐order levels of stratigraphic cyclicity. On the basis of these data, the succession can be divided into two second‐order depositional sequences (DS‐1 and DS‐2), incorporating three system tracts in a lowstand to transgressive to highstand system tract succession (LST–TST–HST). These sequences are composed of fluvial systems at the base with palaeocurrents that flowed westward and south‐westward. The upper part of DS‐1 (Late Albian–Middle Turonian) shows evidence of intertidal to subtidal and offshore deposits. DS‐2 (Late Turonian–Campanian) comprises intertidal to subtidal, tidal flat, shallow marine and lacustrine deposits and interbedded fluvial deposits. Two regressive–transgressive cycles occurred in the area related to eustatic controls. The evolution of the basin can be explained by base‐level changes and associated shifts in depositional trends of successive retrogradational episodes. By using isobath and isopach maps, the main palaeogeographic features of DS‐1 and DS‐2 were constrained, namely coastline positions, the existence and orientation of corridors through which fluvial networks were channelled and the location of the main depocentres of the basin. Sedimentation on the Upper Cretaceous marine platform was mainly controlled by (i) oscillations of sea level and (ii) the orientation of Mesozoic faults, which induced sedimentation along depocentres. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multiple overpressure systems and their relationship with hydrocarbon accumulation in the Qikou Depression of the Bohai Bay Basin,China     

Xue‐Bin Du  Xi‐Nong Xie  Yong‐Chao Lu  Liang Zhang  Wei Peng  Yun‐Peng Li 《Geological Journal》2015,50(4):465-476

Pressure measurements using drill stem tests and estimates from log data calculation indicate that three vertically stacked regional pressure compartments exist in the Qikou Depression of Bohai Bay Basin, N. China. The compartments comprise hydrostatic, upper weak, and lower overpressure systems. Laterally, overpressure (pressure coefficient > 1.2) occurs in the deeper areas and weakens gradually from the centre to the margin of the depression. The accumulation of oil and gas exhibits the interesting characteristics of oil‐bearing layers above gas‐bearing layers in the Qikou Depression. The pattern can be accounted for by the evolution of overpressure system, the maturity process of the source rock and the main fault activity. In the late Dongying Formation (Ed, 30 Ma), the lower overpressure system began to form shape, and the hydrocarbon sources generated a large volume of oil. However, because there was no migration pathway, the oil only accumulated in the original strata. In the late Guantao Formation (Ng, 12 Ma), the gas was generated, the upper overpressure system formed gradually, and the activity of the main fault gradually increased. Then, the overpressure pushed the early gathered oil to flow from the lower overpressure system into the upper overpressure system. Afterwards, the activity of the main fault decreased again and remains weak until now. Thus, later generated natural gas cannot keep migrating along the main fault and can only accumulate in the lower overpressure system. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geochemical Characterization of Bolivian Formative Earthen Architecture by Wavelength‐Dispersive X‐ray Fluorescence     

Melissa A. Goodman‐Elgar  Nichole S. Bettencourt  Richard Conrey 《Geoarchaeology》2015,30(1):32-58

In this study, we employ wavelength‐dispersive X‐ray fluorescence (WDXRF) to characterize construction materials from Formative civic architecture (1000 B.C.E.–C.E. 400), ethnographic mudbricks, and off‐site controls from the Taraco Peninsula, Bolivia. The preparation of earthen construction materials for civic buildings can shed light on aspects of community development such as labor organization, resource management, and architectural technologies. We apply geochemical results to reconstructing how public buildings were made as communities moved toward socio‐political complexity in this region. However, there are few geochemical studies in the Andes, and little prior scientific analysis of earthen architecture. We therefore tested the efficacy of WDXRF for this region, and developed control materials. Our archaeological samples were selected from two Formative villages, Chiripa and Kala Uyuni. In this study, we performed WDXRF analyses on 63 archaeological and control samples including archaeological floors, walling, plasters, and mortars, as well as contemporary ethnographic walling and topsoils. Elemental signatures for 28 elements clearly distinguished the archaeological flooring, walling, plaster, and mortars from ethnographic and off‐site controls. More subtle variations were detected that distinguish study sites and the different material types. Laboratory‐calibrated multi‐element XRF effectively supports efforts to reconstruct the pathways to social complexity in the Titicaca Basin.  相似文献   

Geoarchaeological Investigations in Mesoamerica Move into the 21st Century: A Review     

Nicholas P. Dunning  Carmen McCane  Tyler Swinney  Matthew Purtill  Jani Sparks  Ashley Mann  Jon‐Paul McCool  Chantal Ivenso 《Geoarchaeology》2015,30(3):167-199

Over the past thirty years, geoarchaeology has moved from the fringe to mainstream status within Mesoamerican archaeological investigations. This review focuses on works published since the year 2000. Five themes are identified as central to recent studies: (1) the correlation of environmental change and cultural history; (2) anthropogenic environmental impacts; (3) ancient land cover, land use, and diet; (4) archaeological prospection; and (5) provenance studies. These themes are often interwoven in the application of complex systems approaches that allow scientists to more accurately model the intricacies of ancient human–environment interactions.  相似文献   

Root‐related rhodochrosite and concretionary siderite formation in oxygen‐deficient conditions induced by a ground‐water table rise          下载免费PDF全文

Maciej J. Bojanowski  Elżbieta Jaroszewicz  Adrijan Košir  Maciej Łoziński  Leszek Marynowski  Anna Wysocka  Arkadiusz Derkowski 《Sedimentology》2016,63(3):523-551

Sedimentological, mineralogical, stable carbon and oxygen isotope determinations and biomarker analyses were performed on siderite concretions occurring in terrestrial silts to understand their formation and to characterize the sedimentary and diagenetic conditions favouring their growth. High δ¹³C values (6·4‰ on average) indicate that siderite precipitated in an anoxic environment where bacterial methanogenesis operated. The development of anoxic conditions during shallow burial was induced by a change in sedimentary environment from flood plain to swamp, related to a rise of the ground‐water table. Large amounts of decaying plant debris led to efficient oxygen consumption within the pore‐water in the peat. Oxygen depletion, in combination with a decrease in sedimentation rate, promoted anoxic diagenetic conditions under the swamp and favoured abundant siderite precipitation. This shows how a change in sedimentary conditions can have a profound impact on the early‐diagenetic environment and carbonate authigenesis. The concretions contain numerous rhizoliths; they are cemented with calcium‐rhodochrosite, a feature which has not been reported before. The rhodochrosite cement has negative δ¹³C values (?16·5‰ on average) and precipitated in suboxic conditions due to microbial degradation of roots coupled to manganese reduction. The exceptional preservation of the epidermis/exodermis and xylem vessels of former root tissues indicates that the rhodochrosite formed shortly after the death of a root in water‐logged sediments. Rhodochrosite precipitated during the initial stages of concretionary growth in suboxic microenvironments within roots, while siderite cementation occurred simultaneously around them in anoxic conditions. These suboxic microenvironments developed because oxygen was transported from the overlying oxygenated soil into sediments saturated with anoxic water via roots acting as permeable conduits. This model explains how separate generations of carbonate cements having different mineralogy and isotopic compositions, which would conventionally be regarded as cements precipitated sequentially in different diagenetic zones during gradual burial, can form simultaneously in shallow burial settings where strong redox gradients exist around vertically oriented permeable root structures.  相似文献