Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Julia L. Blanchard  James Harle  Robert Holmes  Icarus Allen  Edward H. Allison  Marie Caroline Badjeck  Nicholas K. Dulvy  Jason Holt  Simon Jennings  Christian Mullon  Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.  相似文献   

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Michael G. Sunde  Hong S. He  Jason A. Hubbart  Michael A. Urban 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1790-1803

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.  相似文献   

Study on Flow Field Around Vertical Breakwater Under Different Overtopping Conditions Based on Numerical Simulation     

蒋学炼  吴米玲  李炎保 《中国海洋工程》2010,(4)

A numerical wave flume is constructed based on the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with turbulence closure by a modified k-ε model to study the viscous interactions of waves with vertical breakwaters for different overtopping cases. The governing equations,the turbulence model,boundary conditions,and solution method for the numerical wave flume are introduced briefly. The reliability of the numerical wave flume is examined by comparing the numerical results with the experimental measurement...  相似文献   

Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector     

Marie Ekström  Natasha Kuruppu  Robert L. Wilby  Hayley J. Fowler  Francis H.S. Chiew  Suraje Dessai  William J. Young 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):115-129

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.  相似文献   

Geomagnetic field from the Earth's core: Its westward drift rate and some probable global-tectonics implications     

A. Janáčková  L. Urban  Reviewer M. Krs 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1989,33(3):246-253

Summary Sets of virtual poles corresponding to sets of geomagnetic field values at equidistant points, lying along circles of latitude, were defined on the basis of the 1980 IGRF extending to degree and order 8. Certain places on the Earth's surface yield virtual poles lying very close together. The segments of the virtual pole paths, corresponding to these places, have a large curvature. The mentioned places of the Earth's surface are supposed to be areas with a low rate of the westward drift. They form continuous zones that show a certain relation to global-tectonics features.

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uum ¶rt; 8- n¶rt;a ¶rt;a¶rt; aaumu n 1980 u u nmu uma n, mmmu nm uu n ma, a u¶rt;umam ¶rt; naa m ma nmu nua¶rt;am uma n, m uu ¶rt; ¶rt;. amu u, mmmu mu ma, um uu. ¶rt;naam, m nm ma nmu m amu, m m ana¶rt; ¶rt;a ua. u am n na, m naam a m uua mmuu.

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Dynamical stability of convection cells in the upper mantle     

Ludvík Urban  Reviewer J. Vaněk 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1988,32(2):151-158

Summary A two-dimensional flow model of an incompressible fluid with constant viscosity has been used to study the changes in the large-scale flow pattern (aspect ratio 4). Implications for convection in the Earth's mantle are discussed.

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a ¶rt; mn uuu ua u¶rt;mu nm m unm ¶rt; uu uu mu ama¶rt;a. ¶rt;am mam ¶rt; uu amuu u.

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Subsidence, extension and thermal history of the West African margin in Senegal     

Marie Vronique Latil Brun  Francis Lucazeau 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1988,90(2)

The subsidence of the Atlantic margin in Senegal clearly shows two rapid stages related to the formation of (1) the Central Atlantic during the early Jurassic (around 200 Ma), and (2) the Equatorial Atlantic during the Cretaceous (100 Ma). A simple model of extension is used to interpret the subsidence history and to derive the thermal evolution of this basin. The present-day gravity, bathymetry, bottom hole temperatures (BHT) in oil exploration boreholes and heat flow density are used to control the validity of the model. Two cross sections from the outcropping basement to oceanic crust are used, one in Casamance and the other one at the south to latitude of Dakar. The model can fully explain the first-order subsidence history as well as the present-day observations, and therefore can provide valuable information about the thermal evolution of sediments and about the structure of the continental crust along the margin. Comparisons with the opposite margin in North America (Blake Plateau and Carolina trough) indicate a rather different evolution (the North American margin did not undergo the second stage of rifting) and a different crustal structure (crustal thinning is less important on the African margin).  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of Ground-Water Resource Management Options in Kuwait   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amitabha Mukhopadhyay  Jawad Al-Sulaimi  Jean Marie Barrat 《Ground water》1994,32(6):917-928

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Volcanic hazards in the surroundings of Pico de Orizaba,eastern Mexico     

Ármann Höskuldsson  Jean Marie Cantagrel 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):197-219

Volcanic hazards from Pico de Orizaba volcano are presented here tor the first time. Some 1.3 million people live within the hazard zone, which in the most severe case would encompass the Mexican Gulf coast, east of the volcano. Three major cities located in the eastern part of the hazard zone account for 800 000 of this population and about 200 000 people live within a 20 km radius of the volcano. Probability calculations are presented as an attempt to quantify the hazards in the surroundings of the volcano. Such quantification can be of use in planning for future land use within the hazard zones.A zone of about 10 km radius centred on the top crater is a high hazard zone for gravity-driven flows and fallout ejecta. For large volume eruptions, the radius could be extended to 120 km to the east and 60 km to the west. The asymmetrical distribution is related to the topography of the volcano. Hazards from Pyroclastic-fall deposits are principally to the west of the volcano, since easterly winds are dominant in the area lava-flow hazards are greatest within a 10 km radius from the summit crater. Pyroclastic flow hazards are high up to 20 km from the volcano summit.In the case of reactivation of the volcano, melting of a glacier covering the summit of Pico de Orizaba having a volume equivalent to some 45 × 10⁹ litres of water, would produce lahars which would descend the flanks of the volcano.  相似文献   

Impact of agriculture on surface water in Ireland Part II. Prospects for the future     

Marie Sherwood 《Environmental Geology》1986,9(1):11-14

Agricultural activity is estimated to be responsible for only 6% (8 km) of the total length (135 km) of seriously polluted river channel, but for over 30% (294 km) of the slightly or moderately polluted length (963 km) of channel recorded to date in the state. This article examines the present sources and causes of pollution from agricultural wastes, and speculates on the likely direction of future trends. The most common sources of surface water pollution are animal manures, silage effluent, runoff from land following spreading, and fertilizers.  相似文献