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791.
We investigated a late glacial–Holocene lacustrine sediment archive located at 4,050 m a.s.l. in the small carbonate-free catchment of Lake Panch Pokhari, Helambu Himal, Nepal. A δ18O sugar biomarker record was established by applying novel compound-specific δ18O analysis of plant sugar biomarkers (Zech and Glaser in Rapid Commun Mass Spectrom 23:3522–3532, 2009). This method overcomes analytical challenges such as extraction and purification faced by previous methods aimed at using δ18O of aquatic cellulose as a paleoclimate proxy. The δ18O results for sugar biomarkers arabinose, xylose and fucose agree well and reveal a pronounced trend towards lower δ18O values during the deglaciation and the onset of the Bølling/Allerød interstadial. By contrast, the period of the Younger Dryas is characterized by higher δ18O values. The early Holocene again reveals lower δ18O values. We suggest that our lacustrine δ18O record reflects coupled hydrological and thermal control. It is strongly related to changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of paleo-precipitation and resembles the δ18O records of Asian speleothems. With respect to the ‘amount effect,’ the record is interpreted as reflecting the Indian Summer Monsoon intensity. The precipitation signal is, however, amplified in our record by evaporative 18O enrichment that is controlled by the ratio of precipitation to evaporation. We suggest that our δ18O record reflects the variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon, which was strong during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial and early Holocene, but weak during the Younger Dryas stadial. This interpretation is corroborated by a pollen-based index for Lake Panch Pokhari that estimated the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon versus the strength of the Westerlies. Millennial-scale synchronicity with the Greenland δ18O temperature records highlights the previously suggested strong teleconnections between the Asian Monsoon system and North Atlantic climate variability.  相似文献   
792.
We test an approach proposed in the literature for estimating the maximum depth of investigation (MDI) of in-loop transient electromagnetic soundings (TEM) with data from the Vizcaino transect, a profile of 38 TEM soundings crossing the Baja California peninsula. The validity of this approach is confirmed by comparing the MDI with the deepest interface of 16 stratified models. In these soundings, all located over the Vizcaino basin, the measured data are not affected by induced polarization. The models indicate the presence of a dipping conductor interpreted as a zone of seawater intrusion with a large lateral extension of over 70 km. The remaining 22 soundings, located over igneous and metamorphic rocks, show reversals in the voltage polarity, indicating the presence of induced polarization effects. The layered Cole-Cole models for these soundings suggest a significant decrease in the MDI. This is confirmed by analyzing the depth behavior of the subsurface current densities. We further analyze the noise level of a data set comprising close to 2000 late-time voltages of about 400 TEM sites acquired in northwestern Mexico. No difference was found between the stationary noise levels of winter and summer, presumably because near thunderstorms are practically absent in this part of Mexico.  相似文献   
793.
The out‐of‐plane response of walls in existing stone masonry buildings is one of the major causes of vulnerability commonly observed in post‐earthquake damage surveys. In this context, a shaking table (ST) test campaign was carried out on a full‐scale masonry façade mainly focusing on the characterization of its out‐of‐plane overturning behaviour. The structure tested on the ST is a partial reproduction of an existing building from Azores, damaged during the 9 July 1998 Faial earthquake. The definition of the tested specimen as well as the selection of the input ground motion is reported in this paper. A specific emphasis is given to the definition of the time‐history to be applied during the tests because it was felt as an essential and crucial part of the work to obtain the desired overturning behaviour. The accelerogram to be imposed was selected from a large set of accelerograms (74) by means of a step‐by‐step procedure on the basis of several numerical analyses resorting to the rocking response of rigid blocks. A companion paper (Part 2) focuses on the ST test results and detailed data interpretation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
794.
ABSTRACT

To obtain estimates of the probability that a river flow will exceed a given threshold at time t + 1, given the flow value at time t, two stochastic models are considered: a filtered Poisson process and a diffusion process with jumps. Estimates derived from linear regression are also considered. The model parameters are assumed to depend on the flow value. An application to the Delaware River is presented.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi  相似文献   
795.
796.
We explore the ability of the greedy algorithm to serve as an effective tool for the construction of reduced-order models for the solution of fully saturated groundwater flow in the presence of randomly distributed transmissivities. The use of a reduced model is particularly appealing in the context of numerical Monte Carlo (MC) simulations that are typically performed, e.g., within environmental risk assessment protocols. In this context, model order reduction techniques enable one to construct a surrogate model to reduce the computational burden associated with the solution of the partial differential equation governing the evolution of the system. These techniques approximate the model solution with a linear combination of spatially distributed basis functions calculated from a small set of full model simulations. The number and the spatial behavior of these basis functions determine the computational efficiency of the reduced model and the accuracy of the approximated solution. The greedy algorithm provides a deterministic procedure to select the basis functions and build the reduced-order model. Starting from a single basis function, the algorithm enriches the set of basis functions until the largest error between the full and the reduced model solutions is lower than a predefined tolerance. The comparison between the standard MC and the reduced-order approach is performed through a two-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow scenario in the presence of a uniform (in the mean) hydraulic head gradient. The natural logarithm of the aquifer transmissivity is modeled as a second-order stationary Gaussian random field. The accuracy of the reduced basis model is assessed as a function of the correlation scale and variance of the log-transmissivity. We explore the performance of the reduced model in terms of the number of iterations of the greedy algorithm and selected metrics quantifying the discrepancy between the sample distributions of hydraulic heads computed with the full and the reduced model. Our results show that the reduced model is accurate and is highly efficient in the presence of a small variance and/or a large correlation length of the log-transmissivity field. The flow scenarios associated with large variances and small correlation lengths require an increased number of basis functions to accurately describe the collection of the MC solutions, thus reducing significantly the computational advantages associated with the reduced model.  相似文献   
797.
Dhofar 280 recorded a complex history on the Moon revealed by high‐resolution 40Ar‐39Ar dating. Thermal resetting occurred less than 1 Ga ago, and the rock was exposed to several impact events before and afterwards. The cosmic ray exposure (CRE) age spectrum indicates a 400 ± 40 Ma CRE on the lunar surface. A unique feature of this lunar sample is a partial loss of cosmogenic 38Ar, resulting in a (low‐temperature) CRE age plateau of about 1 Ma. This was likely caused by the same recent impact event that reset the (low‐temperature) 40Ar‐39Ar age spectrum and preceded the short transit phase to Earth of ≤1 Ma. Dhofar 280 may be derived from KREEP‐rich lunar frontside terrains, possibly associated with the Copernicus crater or with a recent impact event on the deposits of the South Pole–Aitken basin. Although Dhofar 280 is paired with Dhofar 081, their irradiation and thermal histories on the Moon were different. An important trapped Ar component in Dhofar 280 is “orphan” Ar with a low 40Ar/36Ar ratio. It is apparently a mixture of two components, one endmember with 40Ar/36Ar = 17.5 ± 0.2 and a second less well‐constrained endmember with 40Ar/36Ar ≤10. The presence of two endmembers of trapped Ar, their compositions, and the breccia ages seem to be incompatible with a previously suggested correlation between age or antiquity and the (40Ar/36Ar)trapped ratio (Eugster et al. 2001; Joy et al. 2011a). Alternatively, “orphan” Ar of this impact melt breccia may have an impact origin.  相似文献   
798.
799.
In recent years it has become of geophysical interest to detect a possible time variation of the low-degree coefficients of the Earth's gravity field, in particular the (2, 2) tesseral harmonic. We investigate the possibility of detecting such a phenomenon via analysis of the tracking data from LAGEOS, the passive geodynamics satellite tracked by laser stations on the ground. For this purpose the main problems are caused: (i) for short orbital arcs, by the irregular distribution in time of the tracking data, and by the dynamical effects of oceanic tides, which cannot be easily separated from the effects of geopotential changes; (ii) for long orbital arcs, by the difficulty of reliably predicting the variable drag-like force that is causing a slow semimajor axis decay. We estimate that a relative accuracy of the order of 10–4 in the (2, 2) coefficients can be reached provided that a larger number of higher technology laser stations is available, and that better modelling is possible of the drag-like force. Both these conditions seem quite unrealistic at present. If a relative accuracy better than 10–4 has to be reached, an effective separation of the tidal perturbations is also needed, since they give rise to perturbations with a similar signature.  相似文献   
800.
Classical methods to analyze the surface composition of atmosphereless planetary objects from an orbiter are IR and gamma ray spectroscopy and neutron backscatter measurements. The idea to analyze surface properties with an in-situ instrument has been proposed by Johnson et al. (1998). There, it was suggested to analyze Europa's thin atmosphere with an ion and neutral gas spectrometer. Since the atmospheric components are released by sputtering of the moon's surface, they provide a link to surface composition. Here we present an improved, complementary method to analyze rocky or icy dust particles as samples of planetary objects from which they were ejected. Such particles, generated by the ambient meteoroid bombardment that erodes the surface, are naturally present on all atmosphereless moons and planets. The planetary bodies are enshrouded in clouds of ballistic dust particles, which are characteristic samples of their surfaces. In situ mass spectroscopic analysis of these dust particles impacting onto a detector of an orbiting spacecraft reveals their composition. Recent instrumental developments and tests allow the chemical characterization of ice and dust particles encountered at speeds as low as 1 km/s and an accurate reconstruction of their trajectories. Depending on the sampling altitude, a dust trajectory sensor can trace back the origin of each analyzed grain with about 10 km accuracy at the surface. Since the detection rates are of the order of thousand per orbit, a spatially resolved mapping of the surface composition can be achieved. Certain bodies (e.g., Europa) with particularly dense dust clouds, could provide impact statistics that allow for compositional mapping even on single flybys. Dust impact velocities are in general sufficiently high at orbiters about planetary objects with a radius >1000 km and with only a thin or no atmosphere. In this work we focus on the scientific benefit of a dust spectrometer on a spacecraft orbiting Earth's Moon as well as Jupiter's Galilean satellites. This ‘dust spectrometer' approach provides key chemical and isotopic constraints for varying provinces or geological formations on the surfaces, leading to better understanding of the body's geological evolution.  相似文献   
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