A 22-member ensemble from CMIP6 is used to analyze the projected changes and seasonal behavior in surface air temperature over South America during the twenty-first century. In the future projections, CMIP6 models shown a high dependency to the socioeconomic pathway over each country of South America. The multimodel ensemble projects a continuous increase in the annual mean temperature over South America during the twenty-first century under the three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Besides, it was possible to identify consistent positive trends across all the models, with values between 0.45 ± 0.05 and 2.05 ± 0.31 °C cy−1 under the historical experiment, however largest trends occurs for the projection periods (near, mid and far future), with values between − 0.87 ± 0.84 to 2.88 ± 0.60 °C cy−1 (SSP1-2.6), 1.41 ± 0.88 to 5.32 ± 0.81 °C cy−1 (SSP2-4.5) and 4.75 ± 0.58 to 8.76 ± 0.74 °C cy−1 (SSP5-8.5) with maximum values at Bolivia, Brasil, Paraguay and Venezuela whilst minimum values for Argentina and Uruguay, regardless of the SSP scenario used. From the seasonal behavior analysis was possible to identify maximum values between January and March whilst minimum between June and July, except in Brasil, Venezuela and Guyana–Surinam–French Guayana, with annual range decreasing as the latidude decreases. By the end of the twenty-first century the annual mean temperature over South america is projected to increase between 0.92–2.11 °C, 0.97–3.37 °C and 1.27–6.14 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projection scenarios respectively. This projected increase of temperature across the continent will produce negative repercussions in the social, economic and political spheres. The results obtained in this study provide insights about the CMIP6 performance over this region, which can be used to develop adaptation strategies and might be useful for the adaptation to the climate change.
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Mehdipour Simin Nakhaee Nouzar Zolala Farzaneh Okhovati Maryam Foroud Afsar Haghdoost Ali Akbar 《Natural Hazards》2022,113(1):35-62
Natural Hazards - Climate change is likely to increase the risk of drought which impacts on health are not quite known well due to its creeping nature. This study maps the publications on the... 相似文献
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Acta Geotechnica - Designing structures to be the least vulnerable within earthquake-prone areas is a serious challenge for structural engineers. One common and useful tool that structural... 相似文献
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In this study, the amount of cyanide in gold mine tailings is modeled as conceptual, statistical, and mathematical to determine environmental risk level and also to estimate the fate and transport of cyanide in tailings. Therefore, 116 points were selected for sampling from three levels of gold mine tailings and analyzed by colorimetric method. As a matter of fact, new hybrid modeling methods such as AdaBoost, Support Vector Machine, Linear Discriminant Analysis, and Random Forest were used in estimation. In current study, The AdaBoost method was qualified as the best one by minimum estimation error (less than 10%). The model derived from the AdaBoost method shows an average variation of 581 g/day in the volume of cyanide tailings. Thus, the important results of this paper are the presentation of 3D numerical and especially conceptual models according to the 3D cyanide variation in the sulfide gold mine tailings and governing physic/chemical parameters. These qualitative and quantitative results can be used for the management of tailings dam and prevention of the contaminant extension. 相似文献
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Maryam Moridnejad Stewart Cameron Asaad Y. Shamseldin Floris Verhagen Catherine Moore Bruce W. Melville Nick Dudley Ward 《Ground water》2020,58(4):661-673
The Ngongotaha Stream was used as a case study to assess the applicability of fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FODTS) to identify the location of springs and quantify their discharge. Thirteen springs were identified, mostly located within a 115 m reach, five discharged from the right bank and eight from the left bank. To quantify groundwater discharge, a new approach was developed in which the one-dimensional transient heat transport model was fitted to the FODTS measurements, where the main calibration parameters of interest were the unknown spring discharges. The spatial disposition of the groundwater discharge estimation problem was constrained by two sources of information; first, the stream gains ∼500 L/s as determined by streamflow gauging. Second, the temperature profiles of the left and right banks provide the spatial disposition of springs and their relative discharges. FODTS was used to measure stream temperature near the left and right banks, which created two temperature datasets. A weighted average of the two datasets was then calculated, where the weights reflected the degree of mixing between the right and left banks downstream of a spring. The new approach in this study marks a departure from previous studies, in which the general approach was to use the steady-state thermal mixing model (Selker et al. 2006a; Westhoff et al. 2007; Briggs et al. 2012) to infer groundwater discharge, which is then used as an input into a transient model of the general form of equation to simulate stream temperature (Westhoff et al. 2007). 相似文献
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Shari L. Gallop Ana Vila-Concejo Thomas E. Fellowes Mitchell D. Harley Maryam Rahbani John L. Largier 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(15):3854-3868
Many estuaries contain sandy beaches that provide habitats and offer protective buffers for wetlands and infrastructure, alongside cultural and recreational resources. Research underpinning coastal management tends to focus on tide- and swell-dominated sandy beaches, but little attention is given to beaches in estuaries and bays (BEBs) that exist along a continuum of wind/swell wave, tide and riverine influence. BEBs are subject to less wave energy than open coast locations because of the generally narrow window of directions for which ocean waves can propagate through the entrance. However, when storm wave direction coincides with the orientation of the estuary or bay entrance, waves can penetrate several kilometres inside. Here we focus on eight BEBs in two major bays/estuaries in Sydney, Australia and present observations from before and after a major extratropical storm with waves from an atypical direction in June 2016. We quantify magnitudes of beach erosion and recovery rates for 3 years post-storm. We show that when high-energy storm waves penetrate bays and estuaries, BEBs can undergo up to 100% of subaerial beach erosion. Three years after the storm, only 5 of the 29 (17%) eroded subaerial beach profiles had recovered to their pre-storm volume. This is likely due to the lack of low-frequency, beach-building waves at BEBs under modal weather conditions in between storms, in contrast to open coast beaches. We also show that the recovery of BEBs may be limited by the absence of adjacent sediment reservoirs due to the dominance of tidal processes mid-channel. Our study highlights the unique behaviour of BEBs relative to beaches on the open coast, and that shifting wave direction needs to be considered in long-term beach resilience under climate change. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Ocean Dynamics - The surface enthalpy fluxes (latent and sensible heat fluxes) provide the necessary energy to intensify tropical cyclones (TCs). The surface momentum fluxes modify the intensity of... 相似文献
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Textile wastewater contains huge quantities of nitrogen (N)‐containing azo‐dyes. Irrigation of crops with such wastewater adds toxic dyes into our healthy soils. One of the ways to prevent their entry to soils could be these waters after the dyes' biodegradation. Therefore, the present study was conducted to evaluate the impact of textile dyes on wheat growth, dye degradation efficiency of bacteria‐fungi consortium, and alleviation of dye toxicity in wheat by treatment with microbial consortium. Among dyes, Red‐S3B (3.19% N) was found to be the most toxic to germination and growth of seven‐day‐old wheat seedlings. Shewanella sp. NIAB‐BM15 and Aspergillus terreus NIAB‐FM10 were found to be efficient degraders of Red‐S3B. Their consortium completely decolorized 500 mg L?1 Red‐S3B within 4 h. Irrigation with Red‐S3B‐contaminated water after treatment with developed consortium increased root length, shoot length, root biomass, and shoot biomass of 30‐day‐old wheat seedlings by 47, 18, 6, and 25%, respectively, than untreated water. Moreover, irrigation after microbial treatment of dye‐contaminated water resulted in 20 and 51% increase in shoot N content and N uptake, respectively, than untreated water. Thus, co‐inoculation of bacteria and fungi could be a useful bioremediation strategy for the treatment of azo‐dye‐polluted water. 相似文献
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Natural Resources Research - The uniaxial compressive strength and static Young’s modulus are among the key design parameters typically used in geotechnical engineering projects. In this... 相似文献
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