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71.
Process‐based hydrological modelling: The potential of a bottom‐up approach for runoff predictions in ungauged catchments 下载免费PDF全文
Manuel Antonetti Simon Scherrer Peter Matthias Kienzler Michael Margreth Massimiliano Zappa 《水文研究》2017,31(16):2902-2920
Conceptual rainfall–runoff models are a valuable tool for predictions in ungauged catchments. However, most of them rely on calibration to determine parameter values. Improving the representation of runoff processes in models is an attractive alternative to calibration. Such an approach requires a straightforward, a priori parameter allocation procedure applicable on a wide range of spatial scales. However, such a procedure has not been developed yet. In this paper, we introduce a process‐based runoff generation module (RGM‐PRO) as a spin‐off of the traditional runoff generation module of the PREVAH hydrological modelling system. RGM‐PRO is able to exploit information from maps of runoff types, which are developed on the basis of field investigations and expert knowledge. It is grid based, and within each grid cell, the process heterogeneity is considered to avoid information loss due to grid resolution. The new module is event based, and initial conditions are assimilated and downscaled from continuous simulations of PREVAH, which are also available for real‐time applications. Four parameter allocation strategies were developed, on the basis of the results of sprinkling experiments on 60‐m2 hillslope plots at several grassland locations in Switzerland, and were tested on five catchments on the Swiss Plateau and Prealps. For the same catchments, simulation results obtained with the best parameter allocation strategy were compared with those obtained with different configurations of the traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, which was also applied as an event‐based module here. These configurations include a version that avoids calibration, one that transfers calibrated parameters, and one that uses regionalised parameter values. RGM‐PRO simulated heavy events in a more realistic way than the uncalibrated traditional runoff generation module of PREVAH, and, in some instances, it even exceeded the performance of the calibrated traditional one. The use of information on the spatial distribution of runoff types additionally proved to be valuable as a regionalisation technique and showed advantages over the other regionalisation approaches, also in terms of robustness and transferability. 相似文献
72.
Potential evidence for slab detachment from the flexural backstripping of a foredeep: Insight on the evolution of the Pescara basin (Italy) 下载免费PDF全文
Paolo Mancinelli Cristina Pauselli Giorgio Minelli Massimiliano R. Barchi Guy Simpson 《地学学报》2018,30(3):222-232
The discrepancy between the size of the Apenninic chain and the depth of the Adriatic foredeep is investigated using 2D flexural backstripping on well‐constrained depth‐converted cross‐sections in the Pescara basin (Central Italy). The procedure consisted of removal, uplift, unfolding and unfaulting of the Pliocene–Pleistocene foreland deposits to produce a palaeogeographic map of the basin at the end of the Messinian and to constrain sedimentary rates since the Miocene. Results are found to support the contribution of an external load to the foreland evolution together with the Apenninic chain load. The interplay of the two types of loads resulted in spatial and temporal variations of the foredeep evolution that are quantified by palaeogeographic maps and sedimentation rates obtained through backstripping. Results are interpreted as representing the effects of a southward‐migrating wave linked to slab detachment beneath the Adriatic foredeep. This procedure can be useful to investigate similar problems on other chains worldwide. 相似文献
73.
Heather M. N. Wright Chiara Lesti Raymond A. F. Cas Massimiliano Porreca José G. Viramonte Chris B. Folkes Guido Giordano 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2011,73(10):1567-1582
Columnar jointing is thought to occur primarily in lavas and welded pyroclastic flow deposits. However, the non-welded Cerro
Galán Ignimbrite at Paycuqui, Argentina, contains well-developed columnar joints that are instead due to high-temperature
vapor-phase alteration of the deposit, where devitrification and vapor-phase crystallization have increased the density and
cohesion of the upper half of the section. Thermal remanent magnetization analyses of entrained lithic clasts indicate high
emplacement temperatures, above 630°C, but the lack of welding textures indicates temperatures below the glass transition
temperature. In order to remain below the glass transition at 630°C, the minimum cooling rate prior to deposition was 3.0 × 10−3–8.5 × 10−2°C/min (depending on the experimental data used for comparison). Alternatively, if the deposit was emplaced above the glass
transition temperature, conductive cooling alone was insufficient to prevent welding. Crack patterns (average, 4.5 sides to
each polygon) and column diameters (average, 75 cm) are consistent with relatively rapid cooling, where advective heat loss
due to vapor fluxing increases cooling over simple conductive heat transfer. The presence of regularly spaced, complex radiating
joint patterns is consistent with fumarolic gas rise, where volatiles originated in the valley-confined drainage system below.
Joint spacing is a proxy for cooling rates and is controlled by depositional thickness/valley width. We suggest that the formation
of joints in high-temperature, non-welded deposits is aided by the presence of underlying external water, where vapor transfer
causes crystallization in pore spaces, densifies the deposit, and helps prevent welding. 相似文献
74.
Florian Kobierska Tobias Jonas Jan Magnusson Massimiliano Zappa Mathias Bavay Thomas Bosshard Frank Paul Stefano M. Bernasconi 《Applied Geochemistry》2011
A comprehensive hydrological modeling study in the drainage area of a hydropower reservoir in central Switzerland is presented. Two models were tested to reproduce the measured discharge dynamics: (1) a detailed energy-balance model (ALPINE3D) primarily designed for snow simulations; (2) a conceptual runoff model system (PREVAH), including a distributed temperature-index snow and ice melt model. Considerable effort was put into distributing available meteorological station data to the model grids as forcing data. The recent EU regional climate modeling initiative ENSEMBLES provided up-to-date climate predictions for two 30-a periods in mid and late 21st century. These were used to estimate evolutions in the water supply of the hydropower reservoir in response to expected climate changes. The simulations suggest a shift of spring peak-flow by almost two months for the end of the century. Warmer winter temperatures will cause higher winter base-flow. Due to glacier retreat, late-summer flow will decrease at the end of the century. 相似文献
75.
We characterize the seismic response of Lake Vostok, an Antarctic subglacial lake located at nearly 4 km depth below the ice sheet. This study is relevant for the determination of the location and morphology of subglacial lakes. The characterization requires the design of a methodology based on rock physics and numerical modelling of wave propagation. The methodology involves rock-physics models of the shallow layer (firn), the ice sheet and the lake sediments, numerical simulation of synthetic seismograms, ray tracing, τ–p transforms, and AVA analysis, based on the theoretical reflection coefficients. The modelled reflection seismograms show a set of straight events (refractions through the firn and top-ice layer) and the two reflection events associated with the top and bottom of the lake. Theoretical AVA analysis of these reflections indicates that, at near offsets, the PP-wave anomaly is negative for the ice/water interface and constant for the water/sediment interface. This behaviour is shown by AVA analysis of the synthetic data set. This study shows that subglacial lakes can be identified by using seismic methods. Moreover, the methodology provides a tool for designing suitable seismic surveys. 相似文献
76.
Direct, partitioned, and projected (conjugate gradient‐like) solution approaches are compared on unsymmetric indefinite systems arising from the finite element integration of coupled consolidation equations. The direct method is used in its most recent and computationally efficient implementations of the Harwell Software Library. The partitioned approach designed for coupled problems is especially attractive as it addresses two separate positive definite problems of a smaller size that can be solved by symmetric conjugate gradients. However, it may stagnate and when converging it does not prove competitive with a global projection method such as Bi‐CGSTAB, which may take full advantage of its flexibility in working on scaled and reordered equations, and thus may greatly improve its computational performance in terms of both robustness and convergence rate. The Bi‐CGSTAB superiority to the other approaches is discussed and demonstrated with a few representative examples in two‐dimensional (2‐D) and three‐dimensional (3‐D) coupled consolidation problems. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
77.
Surveys in Geophysics - Petrophysical seismic inversion, aided by rock physics, aims at estimating reservoir properties based on reflection events, but it is generally based on the Gassmann... 相似文献
78.
Modern fluvial meander plains exhibit complex planform transformations in response to meander‐bend expansion, downstream migration and rotation. These transformations exert a fundamental control on lithology and reservoir properties, yet their stratigraphic record has been poorly evaluated in ancient examples due to the lack of extensive three‐dimensional exposures. Here, a unique exhumed meander plain exposed to the north of Scarborough (Yorkshire, UK) is analysed in terms of architecture and morphodynamics, with the aim of developing a comprehensive model of facies distribution. The studied outcrop comprises tidal platforms and adjacent cliffs, where the depositional architecture of un‐tilted deposits was assessed on planform and vertical sections, respectively. In its broader perspective, this study demonstrates the potential of architectural mapping of extensive planform exposures for the reconstruction of ancient fluvial morphodynamics. The studied exhumed meander plain is part of the Scalby Formation of the Ravenscar Group, and originally drained small coastal incised valleys within the Jurassic Cleveland Basin. The meander plain is subdivided into two storeys that contain in‐channel and overbank architectural elements. In‐channel elements comprise expansional and downstream‐migrating point bars, point‐bar tails and channel fills. Overbank elements comprise crevasse complexes, levées, floodplain fines and lake fills. The evolution of the point bars played a significant role in dictating preserved facies distributions, with high flood‐stage nucleation and accretion of meander scrolls later reworked during waning flood‐stages. At a larger scale, meander belt morphodynamics were also a function of valley confinement and contrasts in substrate erodibility. Progressive valley infilling decreased the valley confinement, promoting the upward transition from prevalently downstream migrating to expansional meander belts, a transition associated with enhanced preservation of overbank elements. Strikingly similar relations between valley confinement, meander‐bend transformations and overbank preservation are observed in small modern meandering streams such as the Beaver River of the Canadian prairies and the Powder River of Montana (USA). 相似文献
79.
Massimiliano Ghinassi Wojciech Nemec Mauro Aldinucci Slavomir Nehyba Volkan Özaksoy Francesco Fidolini 《Sedimentology》2014,61(4):952-977
The mode of channel‐bend transformation (i.e. expansion, translation, rotation or a combination thereof) has a direct bearing on the dimensions, shape, bedding architecture and connectivity of point‐bar sandstone bodies within a fluvial meander belt, but is generally difficult to recognize in vertical outcrops. This study demonstrates how the bend transformation mode and relative rate of channel‐floor aggradation can be deciphered from longitudinal outcrop sections aligned parallel to the meander‐belt axis, as a crucial methodological aid to the reconstruction of ancient fluvial systems and the development of outcrop analogue models for fluvial petroleum reservoirs. The study focuses on single‐storey and multi‐storey fluvial meander‐belt sandstone bodies in the Palaeogene piggyback Boyabat Basin of north‐central Turkey. The sandstone bodies are several hundred metres wide, 5 to 40 m thick and encased in muddy floodplain deposits. The individual channel‐belt storeys are 5 to 9 m thick and their transverse sections show lateral‐accretion bed packages representing point bars. Point bars in longitudinal sections are recognizable as broad mounds whose parts with downstream‐inclined, subhorizontal and upstream‐inclined bedding represent, respectively, the bar downstream, central and upstream parts. The inter‐bar channel thalweg is recognizable as the transition zone between adjacent point‐bar bedsets with opposing dip directions into or out of the outcrop section. The diverging or converging adjacent thalweg trajectories, or a trajectory migrating in up‐valley direction, indicate point‐bar broadening and hence channel‐bend expansion. A concurrent down‐valley migration of adjacent trajectories indicates channel‐bend translation. Bend rotation is recognizable from the replacement of a depositional riffle by an erosional pool zone or vice versa along the thalweg trajectory. The steepness of the thalweg trajectory reflects the relative rate of channel‐floor aggradation. This study discusses further how the late‐stage foreland tectonics, with its alternating pulses of uplift and subsidence and a progressive narrowing of the basin, has forced aggradation of fluvial channels and caused vertical stacking of meander belts. 相似文献
80.
This paper illustrates the main characteristics of the newly developed landslide model r.massmov, which is based on the shallow water equations, and is capable of simulating the landslide propagation over complex topographies. The model is the result of the reimplementation of the MassMov2D into the free and open-source GRASS GIS with a series of enhancements aiming at allowing its possible integration into innovative early warning monitoring systems and specifically into Web processing services. These improvements, finalized at significantly reducing computational times, include the introduction of a new automatic stopping criterion, fluidization process algorithm, and the parallel computing. Moreover, the results of multi-spatial resolution analysis conducted on a real case study located in the southern Switzerland are presented. In particular, this analysis, composed by a sensitivity analysis and calibration process, allowed to evaluate the model capabilities in simulating the phenomenon at different input data resolution. The results illustrate that the introduced modifications lead to important reductions in the computational time (more than 90 % faster) and that, using the lower dataset resolution capable of guaranteeing reliable results, the model can be run in about 1 s instead of the 3.5 h required by previous model with not optimized dataset resolution. Aside, the results of the research are a series of new GRASS GIS modules for conducting sensitivity analysis and for calibration. The latter integrates the automated calibration program “UCODE” with any GRASS raster module. Finally, the research workflow presented in this paper illustrates a best practice in applying r.massmov in real case applications. 相似文献