Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world     

Matthias Jonas  Gregg Marland  Volker Krey  Fabian Wagner  Zbigniew Nahorski 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):459-476

Our study focuses on uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources, including land use and land-use change activities. We aim to understand the relevance of diagnostic (retrospective) and prognostic (prospective) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature setting that seeks to constrain global warming and to link uncertainty consistently across temporal scales. We discuss diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty in a systems setting that allows any country to understand its national and near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context. Cumulative emissions are not only constrained and globally binding but exhibit quantitative uncertainty; and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target will be achieved is also uncertain. To facilitate discussions, we focus on two countries, the USA and China. While our study addresses whether or not future increase in global temperature can be kept below 2, 3, or 4 °C targets, its primary aim is to use those targets to demonstrate the relevance of both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty. We show how to combine diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty to take more educated (precautionary) decisions for reducing emissions toward an agreed temperature target; and how to perceive combined diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty-related risk. Diagnostic uncertainty is the uncertainty contained in inventoried emission estimates and relates to the risk that true GHG emissions are greater than inventoried emission estimates reported in a specified year; prognostic uncertainty refers to cumulative emissions between a start year and a future target year, and relates to the risk that an agreed temperature target is exceeded.  相似文献   

Reply to Preusser et al. on Frechen et al. “Late Pleistocene fluvial dynamics in the Hochrhein Valley in the upper Rhine Graben: chronological frame”     

Manfred Frechen  Dietrich Ellwanger  Matthias Hinderer  J?rg L?mmermann-Barthel  Inge Neeb  Astrid Techmer 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(1):389-392

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Gas migration through Opouawe Bank at the Hikurangi margin offshore New Zealand     

Stephanie Koch  Henning Schroeder  Matthias Haeckel  Christian Berndt  Joerg Bialas  Cord Papenberg  Dirk Klaeschen  Andreia Plaza-Faverola 《Geo-Marine Letters》2016,36(3):187-196

This study presents 2D seismic reflection data, seismic velocity analysis, as well as geochemical and isotopic porewater compositions from Opouawe Bank on New Zealand’s Hikurangi subduction margin, providing evidence for essentially pure methane gas seepage. The combination of geochemical information and seismic reflection images is an effective way to investigate the nature of gas migration beneath the seafloor, and to distinguish between water advection and gas ascent. The maximum source depth of the methane that migrates to the seep sites on Opouawe Bank is 1,500–2,100 m below seafloor, generated by low-temperature degradation of organic matter via microbial CO₂ reduction. Seismic velocity analysis enabled identifying a zone of gas accumulation underneath the base of gas hydrate stability (BGHS) below the bank. Besides structurally controlled gas migration along conduits, gas migration also takes place along dipping strata across the BGHS. Gas migration on Opouawe Bank is influenced by anticlinal focusing and by several focusing levels within the gas hydrate stability zone.  相似文献   

A new velocity field from the analysis of the Egyptian Permanent GPS Network (EPGN)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mohamed Saleh  Matthias Becker 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(11):4665-4682

For studying recent crustal movements and their relation to earthquake occurrence in large scales, the National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), Helwan, Cairo, Egypt started in 2006 the establishment of the Egyptian Permanent GPS Network (EPGN). Beginning with 4 stations in 2007, 15 stations were operational at the end of 2011. In addition, a station in Alexandria of the French “Centre d'Études Alexandrines” (CEALX) was added as station to the EPGN. Nowadays, 16 stations are operational and an extension to 20 in the near future is expected. The collected EPGN data of the last 6 years are used in this work to throw light upon the present state of recent crustal movement of the whole of Egypt. Bernese software V. 5.0 was used for processing the collected data according to the IGS standards. In addition, selected IGS, AFREF, and EPN sites are processed for reference frame definition. In this first comprehensive analysis of the permanent network, a complete and consistent evaluation resulted in the first estimates of present day horizontal velocities and coordinate time series.  相似文献   

Stars beyond galaxies: the origin of extended luminous haloes around galaxies     

Mario G. Abadi †  Julio F. Navarro ‡  Matthias Steinmetz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(3):747-758

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Nickel abundance in stony cosmic spherules: Constraining precursor material and formation mechanisms     

Carole CORDIER  Matthias Van GINNEKEN  Luigi FOLCO 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2011,46(8):1110-1132

Abstract– We report bulk and olivine compositions in 66 stony cosmic spherules (Na₂O < 0.76 wt%), 200–800 μm in size, from the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica. In porphyritic cosmic spherules, relict olivines that survived atmospheric entry heating are always Ni‐poor and similar in composition to the olivines in carbonaceous or unequilibrated ordinary chondrites (18 spherules), and equilibrated ordinary chondrites (one spherule). This is consistent with selective survival of high temperature, Mg‐rich olivines during atmospheric entry. Olivines that crystallized from the melts produced during atmospheric entry have NiO contents that increase with increasing NiO in the bulk spherule, and that range from values similar to those observed in chondritic olivines (NiO generally <0.5 wt%) to values characteristic of olivines in meteoritic ablation spheres (NiO > 2 wt%). Thus, NiO content in olivine cannot be used alone to distinguish meteoritic ablation spheres from cosmic spherules, and the volatile element contents have to be considered. We propose that the variation in NiO contents in cosmic spherules and their olivines is the result of variable content of Fe, Ni metal in the precursor. NiO contents in olivines and in cosmic spherules can thus be used to discuss their parent body. Ni‐poor spherules can be derived from C‐rich and/or metal‐poor precursors, either related to CM, CI, CR chondrites or to chondritic fragments dominated by silicates, regardless of the parent body. Ni‐rich spherules (NiO > 0.7 wt%) that represent 55% of the 47 barred‐olivine spherules we studied, were derived from the melting of C‐poor, metal‐rich precursors, compatible with ordinary chondrite or CO, CV, CK carbonaceous chondrite parentages.  相似文献   

Lithium isotope geochemistry of marine pore waters - Insights from cold seep fluids     

Florian Scholz  Christian Hensen  Matthias Haeckel  Anette Meixner  Rolf L. Romer 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(12):3459-206

Lithium concentration and isotope data (δ⁷Li) are reported for pore fluids from 18 cold seep locations together with reference fluids from shallow marine environments, a sediment-hosted hydrothermal system and two Mediterranean brine basins. The new reference data and literature data of hydrothermal fluids and pore fluids from the Ocean Drilling Program follow an empirical relationship between Li concentration and δ⁷Li (δ⁷Li = −6.0(±0.3) · ln[Li] + 51(±1.2)) reflecting Li release from sediment or rocks and/or uptake of Li during mineral authigenesis. Cold seep fluids display δ⁷Li values between +7.5‰ and +45.7‰, mostly in agreement with this general relationship. Ubiquitous diagenetic signals of clay dehydration in all cold seep fluids indicate that authigenic smectite-illite is the major sink for light pore water Li in deeply buried continental margin sediments. Deviations from the general relationship are attributed to the varying provenance and composition of sediments or to transport-related fractionation trends. Pore fluids on passive margins receive disproportionally high amounts of Li from intensely weathered and transported terrigenous matter. By contrast, on convergent margins and in other settings with strong volcanogenic input, Li concentrations in pore water are lower because of intense Li uptake by alteration minerals and, most notably, adsorption of Li onto smectite. The latter process is not accompanied by isotope fractionation, as revealed from a separate study on shallow sediments. A numerical transport-reaction model was applied to simulate Li isotope fractionation during upwelling of pore fluids. It is demonstrated that slow pore water advection (order of mm a⁻¹) suffices to convey much of the deep-seated diagenetic Li signal into shallow sediments. If carefully applied, Li isotope systematics may, thus, provide a valuable record of fluid/mineral interaction that has been inherited several hundreds or thousands of meters below the actual seafloor fluid escape structure.  相似文献   

Cretaceous reactivation and intensified erosion in the Archean–Proterozoic Limpopo Belt,demonstrated by apatite fission track thermochronology     

David X. Belton  Matthias J. Raab 《Tectonophysics》2010,480(1-4):99-108

Cratons are generally assumed to be regions of long-lasting tectonic stability. In particular the study of the Phanerozoic exhumation history of cratons has been largely hampered by the scarcity of suitable stratigraphic controls onshore. This fact is even more pronounced in terranes lacking Mesozoic or younger penetrative structural fabrics and metamorphic overprinting. Our study in the Limpopo belt shows that modern apatite fission track thermochronology provides a hitherto unavailable perspective in the study of these rocks, and has profound implications for the crustal evolution of the Zimbabwe Craton.Apatite fission track data from 35 samples taken along two transects, in the southern edge of the Zimbabwe Craton and in the Central Zone of the Limpopo Belt, suggest that extensive regions experienced kilometer-scale exhumation in two discrete events, as recently as the Cretaceous. The first occurred at around 130 Ma, and the second at around 90 Ma. Basin subsidence and sedimentation loads on the Mozambique margin support the timing of these events and provide strong indications of the source and pathways for the eroded material. Further, the results indicate that young and old “surfaces” (in a geomorphological sense) may be structurally juxtaposed in regions of high elevation in Zimbabwe. This is contrary to early ideas of surface chronologies based on summit accordances or invoking pediplanation.  相似文献   

Sponges (Porifera) as living metazoan witnesses from the Neoproterozoic: biomineralization and the concept of their evolutionary success     

Xiaohong Wang  Shixue Hu  Lu Gan  Matthias Wiens  Werner E.G. Müller 《地学学报》2010,22(1):1-11

The emergence of the Metazoa can be dated back to the Neoproterozoic Era which comprises the Cryogenian Period during which two major glaciations occurred, the Sturtian and the Varanger-Marinoan. At that time, the phylum Porifera (sponges) evolved as the first animals and developed a hard skeleton. The two classes of siliceous sponges, the Hexactinellida and the Demospongiae, are already provided with the major genetic repertoire and gene regulatory networks that also exist in modern multicellular animals. Besides these metazoan innovations, the siliceous sponges display one autapomorphic character, silicatein, an enzyme which mediates bio-silica formation. Well preserved siliceous sponge fossils have been excavated from the Cambrian Burgess Shale- and Chengjiang deposits. It is concluded that it was the hard skeleton of the siliceous sponges that contributed to the successful evolution and survival of the Porifera during the last 500 Ma.  相似文献