Thermodynamics of rare events and impulsive relaxation events in the magnetospheric substorm dynamics     

Giuseppe Consolini  Matthieu Kretzschmar 《Planetary and Space Science》2007,55(15):2244-2250

The magnetosphere dynamics shows fast relaxation events following power-law distribution for many observable quantities during magnetic substorms. The emergence of such power-law distributions has been widely discussed in the framework of self-organized criticality and/or turbulence. Here, a different approach to the statistical features of these impulsive dynamical events is proposed in the framework of the thermodynamics of rare events [Lavenda, B.H., Florio, A., 1992. Thermodynamics of rare events, Int. J. Theor. Phys. 31, 1455–1475; Lavenda, B.H., 1995. Thermodynamics of Extremes. Albion]. In detail, an application of such a novel approach to the magnetospheric substorm avalanching dynamics as monitored by the auroral electroject index is discussed.  相似文献   

A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part I: Forcing Fields and Initial Conditions     

J. Morrison  W. Callendar  D. Masson  I. Fine 《大气与海洋》2014,52(1):1-19

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Impacts of Indian Ocean SST biases on the Indian Monsoon: as simulated in a global coupled model     

Chloé Prodhomme  Pascal Terray  Sébastien Masson  Takeshi Izumo  Tomoki Tozuka  Toshio Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):271-290

In this study, the impact of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the atmospheric mean state over the Indian Ocean and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is examined in the framework of the SINTEX-F2 coupled model through forced and coupled control simulations and several sensitivity coupled experiments. During boreal winter and spring, most of the Indian Ocean biases are common in forced and coupled simulations, suggesting that the errors originate from the atmospheric model, especially a dry islands bias in the Maritime Continent. During boreal summer, the air-sea coupling decreases the ISM rainfall over South India and the monsoon strength to realistic amplitude, but at the expense of important degradations of the rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) mean states in the Indian Ocean. Strong SST biases of opposite sign are observed over the western (WIO) and eastern (EIO) tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall amounts over the ocean (land) are systematically higher (lower) in the northern hemisphere and the south equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall band is missing in the control coupled simulation. During boreal fall, positive dipole-like errors emerge in the mean state of the coupled model, with warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the WIO (EIO), suggesting again a significant impact of the SST errors. The exact contributions and the distinct roles of these SST errors in the seasonal mean atmospheric state of the coupled model have been further assessed with two sensitivity coupled experiments, in which the SST biases are replaced by observed climatology either in the WIO (warm bias) or EIO (cold bias). The correction of the WIO warm bias leads to a global decrease of rainfall in the monsoon region, which confirms that the WIO is an important source of moisture for the ISM. On the other hand, the correction of the EIO cold bias leads to a global improvement of precipitation and circulation mean state during summer and fall. Nevertheless, all these improvements due to SST corrections seem drastically limited by the atmosphere intrinsic biases, including prominently the unimodal oceanic position of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) during summer and the enhanced westward wind stress along the equator during fall.  相似文献   

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Agathe Germe  Matthieu Chevallier  David Salas y Mélia  Emilia Sanchez-Gomez  Christophe Cassou 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2519-2538

The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.  相似文献   

Revisiting wintertime cold air intrusions at the east of the Andes: propagating features from subtropical Argentina to Peruvian Amazon and relationship with large-scale circulation patterns     

Jhan Carlo Espinoza  Josyane Ronchail  Matthieu Lengaigne  Nelson Quispe  Yamina Silva  Maria Laura Bettolli  Grinia Avalos  Alan Llacza 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):1983-2002

This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold surges that propagates northward along the eastern flank of the Andes from subtropical to tropical South America analysing wintertime in situ daily minimum temperature observations from Argentina, Bolivia and Peru and ERA-40 reanalysis over the 1975–2001 period. Cold surges usually last 2 or 3 days but are generally less persistent in the southern La Plata basin compared to tropical regions. On average, three to four cold surges are reported each year. Our analysis reveals that 52 % of cold episodes registered in the south of La Plata basin propagate northward to the northern Peruvian Amazon at a speed of around 20 m s^?1. In comparison to cold surges that do not reach the tropical region, we demonstrate that these cold surges are characterized, before they reach the tropical region, by a higher occurrence of a specific circulation pattern associated to southern low-level winds progression toward low latitudes combined with subsidence and dry condition in the middle and low troposphere that reinforce the cold episode through a radiative effect. Finally, the relationship between cold surges and atmosphere dynamics is illustrated for the two most severe cold intrusions that reached the Peruvian and Bolivian Amazon in the last 20 years.  相似文献   

Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate     

Aude Lemonsu  Raphaëlle Kounkou-Arnaud  Julien Desplat  Jean-Luc Salagnac  Valéry Masson 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):679-692

The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches +?2.0/2.4°C in winter and +?3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating.  相似文献   

INGRID: A near-infrared camera for the William Herschel Telescope     

Christopher Packham  Keith L. Thompson  Almudena Zurita  Johan H. Knapen  Ian Smail  Robert Greimel  Daniel F. M. Folha  Chris Benn  rew Humphrey  Rene Rutten  David Ciardi  Matthieu Bec  Richard Bingham  Simon Craig  Kevin Dee  Derek Ives  Paul Jolley  Peter Moore  Marti Pi i Puig  Simon Rees  Gordon Talbot  Sue Worswick 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(2):395-405

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Gravity Meter Primary Station Net in East and Central Africa     

D. Masson Smith  E. M. Andrew 《Geophysical Journal International》1962,7(1):65-86

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Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model     

Matthieu?LengaigneEmail author  Eric?Guilyardi  Jean-Philippe?Boulanger  Christophe?Menkes  Pascale?Delecluse  Pete?Inness  Jeff?Cole  Julia?Slingo 《Climate Dynamics》2004,23(6):601-620

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.  相似文献   

Prediction of heavy metal solubility in agricultural topsoils around two smelters by the physico-chemical parameters of the soils   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Matthieu?Fran?oisEmail author  Henri-Charles?Dubourguier  Dongyan?Li  Francis?Douay 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2004,66(1):78-85

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