Examining Granger causality between atmospheric parameters and radon     

Alessandro Attanasio  Maurizio Maravalle  Giulia Fioravanti 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(2):723-731

In this paper, we study the relationship between atmospheric parameters (i.e., temperature and humidity) and radon data. We use the linear Granger causality in order to observe possible connections, on short and mid time scale periods, between radon time series and meteorological parameters that strongly influence radon emissions. The analysis suggests radon emission is not affected by these atmospheric parameters on short periods, while there is an evidence of Granger causality on mid periods.  相似文献   

Bombs behaving badly: unexpected trajectories and cooling of volcanic projectiles     

Lo?c Vanderkluysen  Andrew J. L. Harris  Karim Kelfoun  Costanza Bonadonna  Maurizio Ripepe 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(8):1849-1858

We collected thermal infrared video of two explosive eruptions at Stromboli in June 2008 and manually traced the trajectories of 95 particles launched during two eruptions. We found that 10–15?% of the analyzed trajectories deviated from predicted curves due to collisions, causing one particle to travel horizontally more than twice as far as expected. Furthermore, we observed an oscillatory cooling behavior for the airborne pyroclasts, with a median period of 0.46?s. Measured cooling was typically much faster than model-predicted cooling with discrepancies of up to 40?% between measured cooling and theoretical modeling. We interpret the measured cooling curves as resulting from the spinning and twisting and tearing of particles during travel: the periodic re-exposing of the hotter core of the pyroclasts to the atmosphere may cause the observed oscillations, and the spinning may accelerate cooling by enhancing convective heat transfer. Current volcanic trajectory and cooling models do not account for projectile collisions, spinning, or tearing and can thus severely underestimate the maximum landing distance and cooling rates of large pyroclasts.  相似文献   

Frequency of debris flows and their relation with precipitation: A case study in the Central Alps, Italy     

Manuela Pelfini  Maurizio Santilli 《Geomorphology》2008,101(4):721-730

Debris flows are very important and widespread mass movements, and represent a remarkable geomorphological hazard. This research deals with debris flows in an alpine environment, studied using dendrogeomorphological dating techniques, outlining their relation with precipitation, and analysing possible changes in their frequency and intensity over time. The study area is the upper Valle del Gallo (Northern Italy), a typical high mountain environment dominated by mass wasting processes, where many debris-flow fans occupy the valley bottom. Dendrogeomorphological research was conducted on twelve of these fans and two channels located on slopes. Tree growth anomalies (abrasion scars, compression wood and abrupt growth changes) were used as dating methods. Two hundred and thirty nine debris debris-flow events between 1875 and 2003 were dated using 757 trees (Pinus montana Mill.). Analysis between dated events and precipitation suggests that debris flows in the study area could be triggered by 20–30 mm of rain concentrated in a few hours. The debris-flow frequency tends to increase gradually, but the highest value seems to have occurred in the period 1974–1983. This trend agrees with the historical occurrence of flooding events in Northern Italy as inferred by literature, and with similar studies conducted in the Swiss Alps. The results of this research are intended as a contribution for understanding the response of geomorphological processes to climatic changes.  相似文献   

Modelling river and riparian vegetation interactions and related importance for sustainable ecosystem management     

Paolo Perona  Carlo Camporeale  Eliana Perucca  Maurizio Savina  Peter Molnar  Paolo Burlando  Luca Ridolfi 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2009,71(3):266-278

We discuss the importance of modelling riparian vegetation and river flow interactions under differing hydrologic regimes. Modelling tools have notable implications with regard to the understanding of riverine ecosystem functioning and to promote sustainable management of water resources. We present both deterministic and stochastic approaches with different levels of simplification, and discuss their use in relation to river and vegetation dynamics at the related scale of interest. We apply such models to both meandering and braided rivers, in particular focusing on the floodplain dynamics of an alpine braided river affected by water impoundment. For this specific case we show what the expected changes in riparian vegetation may be in a ‘controlled release’ scenario for the postdam river Maggia, Switzerland. Finally, the use of these models is discussed in the context of current research efforts devoted to river restoration practice.  相似文献   

Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment          下载免费PDF全文

Giuliano F. Panza  Fabio Romanelli 《地震科学（英文版）》2014,27(5):567-576

A global cross-section of the Earth parallel to the tectonic equator (TE) path, the great circle representing the equator of net lithosphere rotation, shows a difference in shear wave velocities between the western and eastern flanks of the three major oceanic rift basins. The low-velocity layer in the upper asthenosphere, at a depth range of 120 to 200 km, is assumed to represent the decoupling between the lithosphere and the underlying mantle. Along the TE-perturbed (TE-pert) path, a ubiquitous LVZ, about 1,000-km-wide and 100-km-thick, occurs in the asthenosphere. The existence of the TE-pert is a necessary prerequisite for the existence of a continuous global flow within the Earth. Ground-shaking scenarios were constructed using a scenario-based method for seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA), using realistic and duly validated synthetic time series, and generating a data bank of several thousands of seismograms that account for source, propagation, and site effects. Accordingly, with basic self-organized criticality concepts, NDSHA permits the integration of available information provided by the most updated seismological, geological, geophysical, and geotechnical databases for the site of interest, as well as advanced physical modeling techniques, to provide a reliable and robust background for the development of a design basis for cultural heritage and civil infrastructures. Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the NDSHA and standard probabilistic approaches are compared for the Italian territory, and a case-study is discussed. In order to enable a reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered, resulting in a new, very efficient, analytical procedure for computing the broadband seismic wave-field in a 3-D anelastic Earth model.  相似文献   

The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy)   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Maurizio Polemio  Francesco Sdao 《Engineering Geology》1999,53(3-4):297-309

Mass movements varying in type and size, some of which are periodically reactivated, affect the urban area of Avigliano. The disturbed and remoulded masses consist of sandy–silty or silty–clayey plastic material interbedded with stone fragments and conglomerate blocks. Five landslides that were markedly liable to rainfall-associated instability phenomena were selected.

The relationships between landslides and rainfall were investigated using a hydrological and statistical model based on long-term series of daily rainfall data. The model was used to determine the return period of cumulative daily rainfall over 1–180 days. The resulting hydrological and statistical findings are discussed with the aim of identifying the rainfall duration most critical to landslides.

The concept of a precipitation threshold was generalized by defining some probability classes of cumulative rainfall. These classes indicate the thresholds beyond which reactivation is likely to occur. The probability classes are defined according to the return period of the cumulative rainfall concomitant with landslide reactivation.  相似文献   

The Finero phlogopite-peridotite massif: an example of subduction-related metasomatism   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

Alberto Zanetti  Maurizio Mazzucchelli  Giorgio Rivalenti  Riccardo Vannucci 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1999,134(2-3):107-122

The Finero peridotite massif is a harzburgite that suffered a dramatic metasomatic enrichment resulting in the pervasive presence of amphibole and phlogopite and in the sporadic occurrence of apatite and carbonate (dolomite)-bearing domains. Pyroxenite (websterite) dykes also contain phlogopite and amphibole, but are rare. Peridotite bulk-rock composition retained highly depleted major element characteristics, but was enriched in K, Rb, Ba, Sr, LREE (light rare earth elements) (La_N/Yb_N = 8–17) and depleted in Nb. It has high radiogenic Sr (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr₍₂₇₀₎ = 0.7055–0.7093), low radiogenic Nd (ɛNd₍₂₇₀₎= −1 to −3) and EMII-like Pb isotopes. Two pyroxenite – peridotite sections examined in detail show the virtual absence of major and trace element gradients in the mineral phases. In both rock types, pyroxenes and olivines have the most unfertile major element composition observed in Ivrea peridotites, spinels are the richest in Cr, and amphibole is pargasite. Clinopyroxenes exhibit LREE-enriched patterns (La_N/Yb_N ∼16), negative Ti and Zr and generally positive Sr anomaly. Amphibole has similar characteristics, except a weak negative Sr anomaly, but incompatible element concentration ∼1.9 (Sr) to ∼7.9 (Ti) times higher than that of coexisting clinopyroxene. Marked geochemical gradients occur toward apatite and carbonate-bearing domains which are randomly distributed in both the sections examined. In these regions, pyroxenes and amphibole (edenite) are lower in mg## and higher in Na₂O, and spinels and phlogopite are richer in Cr₂O₃. Both the mineral assemblage and the incompatible trace element characteristics of the mineral phases recall the typical signatures of “carbonatite” metasomatism (HFSE depletion, Sr, LILE and LREE enrichment). Clinopyroxene has higher REE and Sr concentrations than amphibole (^amph/cpxD_REE,Sr = 0.7–0.9) and lower Ti and Zr concentrations. It is proposed that the petrographic and geochemical features observed at Finero are consistent with a subduction environment. The lack of chemical gradients between pyroxenite and peridotite is explained by a model where melts derived from an eclogite-facies slab infiltrate the overhanging harzburgitic mantle wedge and, because of the special thermal structure of subduction zones, become heated to the temperature of the peridotite. If the resulting temperature is above that of the incipient melting of the hydrous peridotite system, the slab-derived melt equilibrates with the harzburgite and a crystal mush consisting of harzburgite and a silica saturated, hydrous melt is formed. During cooling, the crystal mush crystallizes producing the observed sequence of mineral phases and their observed chemical characteristics. In this context pyroxenites are regions of higher concentration of the melt in equilibrium with the harzburgite and not passage-ways through which exotic melts percolated. Only negligible chemical gradients can appear as an effect of the crystallization process, which also accounts for the high amphibole/clinopyroxene incompatible trace element ratios. The major element refractory composition is explained by an initially high peridotite/melt ratio. The apatite, carbonate-bearing domains are the result of the presence of some CO₂ in the slab-derived melt. The CO₂/H₂O ratio in the peridotite mush increased by crystallization of hydrous phases (amphibole and phlogopite) locally resulting in the unmixing of a late carbonate fluid. The proposed scenario is consistent with subduction of probably Variscan age and with the occurrence of modal metasomatism before peridotite incorporation in the crust. Received: 20 July 1998 / Accepted: 28 October 1998  相似文献   

Seismic risk assessment for developing countries: Pakistan as a case study     

Shaukat A. Khan  Kypros Pilakoutas  Iman Hajirasouliha  Reyes Garcia  Maurizio Guadagnini 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2018,17(4):787-804

Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region.  相似文献   

The use of the slope–area function to analyse process domains in complex badland landscapes     

Francesca Vergari  Francesco Troiani  Hazel Faulkner  Maurizio Del Monte  Marta Della Seta  Sirio Ciccacci  Paola Fredi 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(1):273-286

This paper explores the effectiveness of the widely-used functional relationship between drainage area (A in m²) and slope (S in m/m) to identify local process domains and aid interpretation of process interactions in a complex badland landscape. In order to perform this investigation, a series of sub-basins tributary to the Formone River in the Orcia catchment (central Italy) were selected as a suitable study area within which to explore our questions, given these basins' general representativeness of local terrain, the availability of a high resolution digital terrain model and previous extensive geomorphological research. Eroding basins containing both calanchi and landslides are common in the sub-humid badland landscape of central Italy, where field observation identifies a complex pattern of erosive processes associated with a history of uplift, despite which parts of the local landscape appear disconnected. Results reveal that the shape of all S–A curves (plotted using S data binned on log A) is comparable with that described in the literature, although sub-basins containing calanchi generally plot with higher S values than non-calanchi ones, except in the ‘fluvial’ section of the plots. Second, when viewed on total data (non-binned) S–A plots, landslide source area domains and calanchi domains are entirely coincident in all basins, supporting a cause–effect relationship. Additional plotting of the frequency characteristics of the raw data in a new way supports the interpretation that calanchi frequently initiate in landslide scars. In general though, although the S–A plots can contribute to the disentanglement of geomorphological behaviour in some complex erosional landscapes, it became apparent that in this landscape, process domains do not separate out with clarity along the A axis as suggested by theory. Despite this, an alternative, broader-scale morphoevolutive model can be proposed for the development of within-landslide calanchi, driven by changes to basin connectivity to the base channel. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A methodology for defining seismic scenario‐structure‐based limit state criteria for rc high‐rise wall buildings using net drift          下载免费PDF全文

Wael Alwaeli  Aman Mwafy  Kypros Pilakoutas  Maurizio Guadagnini 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(8):1325-1344

As a result of population growth and consequent urbanization, the number of high‐rise buildings is rapidly growing worldwide resulting in increased exposure to multiple‐scenario earthquakes and associated risk. The wide range in frequency contents of possible strong ground motions can have an impact on the seismic response, vulnerability and limit states definitions of RC high‐rise wall structures. Motivated by the pressing need to derive more accurate fragility relations to be used in seismic risk assessment and mitigation of such structures, a methodology is proposed to obtain reliable, Seismic Scenario‐Structure‐Based (SSSB) definitions of limit state criteria. A 30‐story wall building, located in a multi‐seismic scenario study region, is utilized to illustrate the methodology. The building is designed following modern codes and then modeled using nonlinear fiber‐based approach. Uncertainty in ground motions is accounted for by the selection of forty real earthquake records representing two seismic scenarios. Seismic scenario‐based building local response at increasing earthquake intensities is mapped using Multi‐Record Incremental Dynamic Analyses (MRIDAs) with a new scalar intensity measure. Net Inter‐Story Drift (NISD) is selected as a global damage measure based on a parametric study involving seven buildings ranging from 20 to 50 stories. This damage measure is used to link local damage events, including shear, to global response under different seismic scenarios. While the study concludes by proposing SSSB limit state criteria for the sample building, the proposed methodology arrives at a reliable definition of limit state criteria for an inventory of RC high‐rise wall buildings under multiple earthquake scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献