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Najmeh?Khalili Saeed?Reza?KhodashenasEmail author Kamran?Davary Mohammad?Mousavi?Baygi Fatemeh?Karimaldini 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(13):624
In this paper, we have utilized ANN (artificial neural network) modeling for the prediction of monthly rainfall in Mashhad synoptic station which is located in Iran. To achieve this black-box model, we have used monthly rainfall data from 1953 to 2003 for this synoptic station. First, the Hurst rescaled range statistical (R/S) analysis is used to evaluate the predictability of the collected data. Then, to extract the rainfall dynamic of this station using ANN modeling, a three-layer feed-forward perceptron network with back propagation algorithm is utilized. Using this ANN structure as a black-box model, we have realized the complex dynamics of rainfall through the past information of the system. The approach employs the gradient decent algorithm to train the network. Trying different parameters, two structures, M531 and M741, have been selected which give the best estimation performance. The performance statistical analysis of the obtained models shows with the best tuning of the developed monthly prediction model the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.93, 0.99, and 6.02 mm, respectively, which confirms the effectiveness of the developed models. 相似文献
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Evaluating the support vector machine for suspended sediment load forecasting based on gamma test 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sharareh Rashidi Mehdi Vafakhah Elham Kakaei Lafdani Mohammad Reza Javadi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(11):583
Due to the various influencing factors on river suspended sediment transportation, determining an appropriate input combination for developing the suspended sediment load forecasting model is very important for water resources management. The influence of pre-processing of input variables by Gamma Test (GT) was investigated on performance of Support Vector Machine (SVM) with two kernels; Radial Basis Function (RBF) and polynomial in order to forecast daily suspended sediment amount in the period between 1983 and 2014 at Korkorsar basin, northern Iran. The best input combination was identified using GT and correlation coefficient analysis. Then, the SVM model was developed and the suspended sediment amount was forecasted with RBF and polynomial kernels. The obtained results in testing phase showed that GT-SVM (RBF kernel) model can estimate suspended sediment more accurately with the lowest RMSE (14.045 ton/day), highest correlation coefficient (0.88) and highest NSEC coefficient (0.88) than SVM (RBF kernel) model (RMSE?=?18.36ton/day, \( {R}^2=0.79, \) \( NSEC=0.73 \)) and had a better performance than the other models. The results indicated that in forecasting the first nine maximum values of suspended sediment load, GT-SVM (RBF) had a higher capability than the other models and could provide a more accurate estimation from the maximum rate of suspended sediment. The results of this study showed the capability of identifying the priority of the input parameters can change GT to a useful and technical test for input variables pre-processing to forecast the amount of suspended sediments. 相似文献
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Saeed Sharafi Mahmud Ramroudi Mehdi Nasiri Mohammad Galavi Gholam Ali Kamali 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(19):734
Drought is a complex phenomenon in meteorology and can affect agriculture. Its impacts vary greatly since they depend not only on the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of rainfall deficits but also on the differing responses of various plants to water stress. The essence of good drought management is to use this range of responses to the best advantage. Iran is one of the world’s largest and most productive suppliers of food and fiber. The objective of this study was, therefore, to gather and analyze standardized information on the Role of Early Warning Systems for Sustainable Agriculture for cereals and leguminous and industrial crops in Iran environmental zones. Annual average rainfall (mm year?1) and ETO (mm year?1) are 76.56 and 3001, respectively, in stations with very dry climate; 195.41 and 2249, respectively, in stations with dry climate; 343.9 and 1351, respectively, in stations with semi-dry climate; 583.8 and 1153, respectively, in stations with semi-humid climate; and 1272 and 949, respectively, in stations with humid climate. The maximum and minimum of annual average rainfall happened in Rasht (1337 mm year?1) and Zabol (57 mm year?1) stations, and the maximum and minimum for annual average ETO happened in Chabahar (3909.15 mm year?1) and Anzali harbor (890.6 mm year?1), respectively. Therefore, 13.63 % of stations have suitable conditions for crop productions and 86.37 % are in critical conditions. 相似文献
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Haris Ahmed KHAN Ali Asghar SHAHID Muhammad Jahangir KHAN Taher ZOUAGHI Maria Dolores ALVAREZ Syed Danial Mehdi NAQVI 《《地质学报》英文版》2023,97(1):256-268
This research is focused on the analysis of the sequence stratigraphic units of F3 Block, within a wave-dominated delta of Plio–Pleistocene age. Three wells of F3 block and a 3D seismic data, are utilized in this research. The conventional techniques of 3D seismic interpretation were utilized to mark the 11 surfaces on the seismic section. Integration of seismic sequence stratigraphic interpretation, using well logs, and subsequent 3D geostatistical modeling, using seismic data, aided to evaluat... 相似文献
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Ashraf Samaneh AghaKouchak Amir Nazemi Ali Mirchi Ali Sadegh Mojtaba Moftakhari Hamed R. Hassanzadeh Elmira Miao Chi-Yuan Madani Kaveh Mousavi Baygi Mohammad Anjileli Hassan Arab Davood Reza Norouzi Hamid Mazdiyasni Omid Azarderakhsh Marzi Alborzi Aneseh Tourian Mohammad J. Mehran Ali Farahmand Alireza Mallakpour Iman 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):379-391
Climatic Change - By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change... 相似文献
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Saeid Pourmorad Harami Reza Mousavi Solgi Ali Aleali Mohsen 《Lithology and Mineral Resources》2021,56(1):89-112
Lithology and Mineral Resources - The alluvial-fan sediments play a very important role in mineral reserves and underground water resources, though a comprehensive study on such sediments,... 相似文献