Ecohydrological modelling in a deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for application in non-stationary climates     

Adrienne M. Marshall  Timothy E. Link  Gerald N. Flerchinger  Dmitry J. Nicolsky  Melissa S. Lucash 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14251

Soil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this data-sparse region. Parameter estimation is further complicated in regions with rapidly warming climate, where there is a need to minimize model error dependence on interannual climate variations. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied the physically based, one-dimensional ecohydrological Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest stand in interior Alaska over a 13-year period. Using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation parameterisation, SHAW reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture during a five-year validation period quite well, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020 cm³/cm³. Many parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the eight-year validation period, indicating some overfitting and demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based on traditional performance measures such as the RMSE that minimize error in soil moisture simulation, with one that is designed to minimize the dependence of model error on interannual climate variability using a new diagnostic approach we call CSMP, which stands for Climate Sensitivity of Model Performance. Use of the CSMP approach moderately decreases traditional model performance but may be more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is important that model error is independent from climate variability. These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL, can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model parameterisation, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter selection to improve applicability in non-stationary climates.  相似文献   

Science-based and stakeholder-driven marine protected area network planning: A successful case study from north central California     

Mary Gleason  Scott McCreary  Melissa Miller-Henson  John Ugoretz  Evan Fox  Matt Merrifield  Will McClintock  Paulo Serpa  Kathryn Hoffman 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(2):52-68

The planning process for California's Marine Life Protection Act in north central California represents a case study in the design of a regional component of a statewide network of marine protected areas (MPAs) for improved ecosystem protection. We describe enabling factors, such as a legislative mandate, political will, and adequate capacity and funding that fostered a successful planning process. We identify strategic principles that guided the design of a transparent public planning process that delivered regional MPA network proposals, which both met science guidelines and achieved a high level of support among stakeholders. We also describe key decision support elements (spatial data, planning tools, and scientific evaluation) that were essential for designing, evaluating, and refining alternative MPA network proposals and for informing decision-makers.  相似文献   

A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  

Susan L. Cutter  Lindsey Barnes  Melissa Berry  Christopher Burton  Elijah Evans  Eric Tate  Jennifer Webb 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(4):598

There is considerable research interest on the meaning and measurement of resilience from a variety of research perspectives including those from the hazards/disasters and global change communities. The identification of standards and metrics for measuring disaster resilience is one of the challenges faced by local, state, and federal agencies, especially in the United States. This paper provides a new framework, the disaster resilience of place (DROP) model, designed to improve comparative assessments of disaster resilience at the local or community level. A candidate set of variables for implementing the model are also presented as a first step towards its implementation.  相似文献   

Influence of dissolved organic carbon on photochemically mediated cycling of hydrogen peroxide in rainwater     

Robert J. Kieber  Jeremy Smith  Katherine M. Mullaugh  Melissa W. Southwell  G. Brooks Avery Jr.  Joan D. Willey 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2009,64(2-3):149-158

The influence of sunlight and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) on the photochemically mediated cycling of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) was investigated in rainwater samples collected in Wilmington, North Carolina USA. Upon exposure to simulated sunlight 14 of 19 authentic rainwater samples exhibited significant decreases in H₂O₂. The concentration of hydrogen peroxide did not change significantly in organic-free synthetic rainwater spiked with H₂O₂ in the light or in dark controls suggesting that the loss was not due to direct photolysis or dark mediated reactions. There was a significant correlation between pseudo-first order rate constants of H₂O₂ decay and initial H₂O₂ concentrations. There was also a significant correlation between the rate constant and the abundance of DOC suggesting that rainwater organic carbon plays an important role during photolytic decay either via direct reaction or indirectly through production of peroxide reactive species or scavenging of peroxide generating radicals. Several rain samples exhibited an initial increase in H₂O₂ during the first 2 h of irradiation. These increases were generally small and most likely do not represent a significant input of peroxide in precipitation. The photo-induced destruction of H₂O₂ is important because it may partly explain the late afternoon decrease of peroxide concentrations observed in earlier field studies and the substantial under saturation (<10%) of this oxidant in rainwater compared with gas phase concentrations.  相似文献   

Achmed the dead terrorist and humor in popular geopolitics     

Darren Purcell  Melissa Scott Brown  Mahmut Gokmen 《GeoJournal》2010,75(4):373-385

The critical geopolitics literature has engaged popular culture and media in many forms, usually focused on mass media or elite-produced niche media. The issue of humor as a form of popular culture with geopolitical content has been explored only recently by geographers. This paper utilizes disposition theory, with its emphasis on social context, to link humor and geopolitical analyses of humor. The analysis of two Jeff Dunham comedy skits centering on the character Achmed the Dead Terrorist demonstrates the utility of disposition theory as a construct to situate humor in the context of its original production and as a fluid, global phenomenon that is shared through various social networks via the Internet.  相似文献   

Limits on the trapping of atmospheric CH₄ in martian polar ice analogs     

Melissa G. Trainer  Margaret A. Tolbert  Christopher P. McKay 《Icarus》2010,208(1):192-197

Recent detection of methane (CH₄) on Mars has generated interest in possible biological or geological sources, but the factors responsible for the reported variability are not understood. Here we explore one potential sink that might affect the seasonal cycling of CH₄ on Mars - trapping in ices deposited on the surface. Our apparatus consisted of a high-vacuum chamber in which three different Mars ice analogs (water, carbon dioxide, and carbon dioxide clathrate hydrates) were deposited in the presence of CH₄ gas. The ices were monitored for spectroscopic evidence of CH₄ trapping using transmission Fourier-Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, and during subsequent sublimation of the ice films the vapor composition was measured using mass spectrometry (MS). Trapping of CH₄ in water ice was confirmed at deposition temperatures <100 K which is consistent with previous work, thus validating the experimental methods. However, no trapping of CH₄ was observed in the ice analogs studied at warmer temperatures (140 K for H₂O and CO₂ clathrate, 90 K for CO₂ snow) with approximately 10 mTorr CH₄ in the chamber. From experimental detection limits these results provide an upper limit of 0.02 for the atmosphere/ice trapping ratio of CH₄. If it is assumed that the trapping mechanism is linear with CH₄ partial pressure and can be extrapolated to Mars, this upper limit would indicate that less than 1% is expected to be trapped from the largest reported CH₄ plume, and therefore does not represent a significant sink for CH₄.  相似文献   

Spectral Irradiance and Phytoplankton Community Composition in a Blackwater-Dominated Estuary,Winyah Bay,South Carolina,USA     

Evelyn Lawrenz  James L. Pinckney  Melissa L. Ranhofer  Hugh L. MacIntyre  Tammi L. Richardson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2010,33(5):1186-1201

We investigated spatial and temporal relationships between spectral irradiance and phytoplankton community composition in the blackwater-influenced estuary Winyah Bay, South Carolina. Upstream, high concentrations of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorbed blue wavelengths, resulting in a predominantly red light field. Green light prevailed downstream near the lower-CDOM coastal ocean, and phytoplankton community composition was distinct from upstream and mid-estuarine communities. Diatoms were abundant throughout the estuary in January, August, and October, cryptophytes dominated in July, and chlorophytes were abundant in December 2006. Only diatoms and chlorophytes showed significant covariation with the spectral attenuation coefficient (k(λ)): Chlorophytes showed positive relationships with k(442) (blue light) while diatoms were negatively correlated with k(442) and k(490) (violet to blue). Phytoplankton community composition in Winyah Bay appears to be driven by strong horizontal flow rather than gradients in spectral irradiance, but results indicate that water color is likely to play a greater role in blackwater-influenced estuaries with longer residence times.  相似文献   

Earth and space science informatics infrastructure     

Tom Narock  Melissa Cragin 《Earth Science Informatics》2010,3(1-2):1-3

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Changes in the parkland-boreal forest boundary in northwestern Ontario over the Holocene     

Melissa T. Moos  Brian F. Cumming 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(9-10):1232-1242

Changes in vegetation were tracked from a well-dated sediment core from a boreal lake, Lake 239, at ～200-year resolution over the Holocene. This presently oligotrophic lake is located ～100-km east from the present-day parkland-forest ecotone in northwestern Ontario. Near-shore sediment core transects from Lake 239 have previously shown this lake was at least 8-m lower than present in the mid-Holocene, or ～58% less lake volume in comparison to today. Large shifts were expected in the terrestrial vegetation if the low lake levels were related to climate. The core from Lake 239 shows increases in the relative abundance and concentration of pollen such as Cupressaceae and Ambrosia, indicating a more open boreal forest between ～4500–8000 cal yr BP. Pollen-based inferences of average, summer and winter temperatures suggest that temperatures were on average up to 1–2 °C warmer than today, with winter temperatures up to 4 °C warmer. The pollen inferences also suggest enhanced precipitation, likely in the summer, but with an overall increase in evaporation and evapotranspiration resulting in reduced effective moisture. To assess regional climate changes, pollen-based reconstructions of temperature and precipitation were developed and synthesized from sediment cores from eight previously published lakes, from which pollen sites were available to both the west and east of Lake 239, spanning present-day prairie lakes to forested lakes up to 300 km east of the prairie-boreal ecotone. All sites show shifts in pollen assemblages that indicate a warm mid-Holocene period; prairie sites west of the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) show mid-Holocene decreases in precipitation relative to today, whereas sites near or east of ELA show consistent increases in precipitation, but with increased temperatures and enhanced evaporation during the mid-Holocene.  相似文献   

A one hundred and seventeen year coastal water temperature record from Woods Hole,Massachusetts     

Scott?W.?NixonEmail author  Stephen?Granger  Betty?A.?Buckley  Melissa?Lamont  Brenda?Rowell 《Estuaries and Coasts》2004,27(3):397-404

We have compiled what we believe is the longest coherent coastal sea surface temperature record in North America. Near-surface water temperature measurements have been made almost daily at Great Harbon, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, since 1886 with remarkably few gaps. The record shows that there was no significant trend in water temperature at this site for the first 60 yr of observation. There was some cooling during the 1960s that was followed by a significant warming from 1970–2002 at a rate of 0.04°C yr^?1. During the 1990s annual mean temperatures averaged approximately 1.2°C warmer than they had been on average between 1890 and 1970; winter (December, January, and February) temperatures were 1.7°C warmer and summer (June, July, and August) temperatures were 1.0°C warmer. There has not been a statistically significant decrease in the annual number of winter days below 1°C or an increase in the annual number of winter days above 5°C. The number of summer days each year with water temperature above 21°C has not increased significantly. The dates of first observations of 10°C and 20°C water in the spring have not changed sufficiently to be statistically significant. There is a weak positive correlation between annual and winter water temperature and the annual and winter North Atlantic Oscillation index, respectively, during the period of record.  相似文献