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121.
Raja Nussaïbah B. Aydin Olgu Türkoğlu Necla Çiçek Ihsan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):293-304
The purpose of this study is to revaluate the changing spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Turkey. Turkey is located in one of the regions at greatest risk from the potential effects of climate change. Since the 1970s, a decreasing trend in annual precipitation has been observed, in addition to an increasing number of precipitation-related natural hazards such as floods, extreme precipitation, and droughts. An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation is therefore crucial to hazard management as well as planning and managing water resources, which depend heavily on precipitation. The ordinary kriging method was employed to interpolate precipitation estimates using precipitation records from 228 meteorological stations across the country for the period 1976–2010. A decreasing trend was observed across the Central Anatolian region, except for 1996–2000 which saw an increase in precipitation. However, this same period is identified as the driest year in Eastern and South Eastern Anatolia. The Eastern Black Sea region has the highest precipitation in the country; after 1996, an increase in annual precipitation in this region is observed. An overall reduction is also seen in southwest Turkey, with less variation in precipitation.
相似文献122.
T. Kılıç L. Ottemöller J. Havskov K. Yanık Ö. Kılıçarslan F. Alver M. Özyazıcıoğlu 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(1):35-46
Based on the earthquake event data accumulated by the Turkish National Seismic Network between 2007 and 2013, the local magnitude (Richter, Ml) scale is calibrated for Turkey and the close neighborhood. A total of 137 earthquakes (Mw?>?3.5) are used for the Ml inversion for the whole country. Three Ml scales, whole country, East, and West Turkey, are developed, and the scales also include the station correction terms. Since the scales for the two parts of the country are very similar, it is concluded that a single Ml scale is suitable for the whole country. Available data indicate the new scale to suffer from saturation beyond magnitude 6.5. For this data set, the horizontal amplitudes are on average larger than vertical amplitudes by a factor of 1.8. The recommendation made is to measure Ml amplitudes on the vertical channels and then add the logarithm scale factor to have a measure of maximum amplitude on the horizontal. The new Ml is compared to Mw from EMSC, and there is almost a 1:1 relationship, indicating that the new scale gives reliable magnitudes for Turkey. 相似文献
123.
Seismic wavefield modeling is important for improving seismic data processing and interpretation. Calculations of wavefield propagation are sometimes not stable when forward modeling of seismic wave uses large time steps for long times. Based on the Hamiltonian expression of the acoustic wave equation, we propose a structure-preserving method for seismic wavefield modeling by applying the symplectic finite-difference method on time grids and the Fourier finite-difference method on space grids to solve the acoustic wave equation. The proposed method is called the symplectic Fourier finite-difference (symplectic FFD) method, and offers high computational accuracy and improves the computational stability. Using acoustic approximation, we extend the method to anisotropic media. We discuss the calculations in the symplectic FFD method for seismic wavefield modeling of isotropic and anisotropic media, and use the BP salt model and BP TTI model to test the proposed method. The numerical examples suggest that the proposed method can be used in seismic modeling of strongly variable velocities, offering high computational accuracy and low numerical dispersion. The symplectic FFD method overcomes the residual qSV wave of seismic modeling in anisotropic media and maintains the stability of the wavefield propagation for large time steps. 相似文献
124.
The scattering of plane SH-waves by topographic features in a layered transversely isotropic (TI) half-space is investigated by using an indirect boundary element method (IBEM). Firstly, the anti-plane dynamic stiffness matrix of the layered TI half-space is established and the free fields are solved by using the direct stiffness method. Then, Green’s functions are derived for uniformly distributed loads acting on an inclined line in a layered TI half-space and the scattered fields are constructed with the deduced Green’s functions. Finally, the free fields are added to the scattered ones to obtain the global dynamic responses. The method is verified by comparing results with the published isotropic ones. Both the steady-state and transient dynamic responses are evaluated and discussed. Numerical results in the frequency domain show that surface motions for the TI media can be significantly different from those for the isotropic case, which are strongly dependent on the anisotropy property, incident angle and incident frequency. Results in the time domain show that the material anisotropy has important effects on the maximum duration and maximum amplitudes of the time histories. 相似文献
125.
Hydrologists use the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution in peaks-over-threshold (POT) modelling of extremes. A model with similar uses is the two-parameter kappa (KAP) distribution. KAP has had fewer hydrological applications than GP, but some studies have shown it to merit wider use. The problem of choosing between GP and KAP arises quite often in frequency analyses. This study, by comparing some discrimination methods between these two models, aims to show which method(s) is (are) recommended. Three specific methods are considered: one uses the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit (GoF) statistic, another uses the ratio of maximized likelihood (closely related to the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion), and the third employs a normality transformation followed by application of the Shapiro-Wilk statistic. We show this last method to be the most recommendable, due to its advantages with sizes typically encountered in hydrology. We apply the simulation results to some flood POT datasets.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Volpi 相似文献
126.
Seismic behavior of gravity dams has long been evaluated using a representative two‐dimensional (2D) system. Formulated for the gravity dams built in wide canyons, the assumption is nevertheless utilized extensively for almost all concrete dams due to the established procedures as well as the expected computational costs of a three‐dimensional model. However, a significant number of roller‐compacted concrete dams, characterized as such systems, do not conform to the basic assumptions of these methods by violating the conditions on canyon dimensions and joint‐spacing/details. Based on the premise that the 2D modeling assumption is overstretched for practical purposes in a variety of settings, the purpose of this study is to critically evaluate the use of 2D modeling for the prediction of the seismic demands on these systems. Using a rigorous soil–structure interaction approach, the difference between the two and three‐dimensional response for gravity dams was investigated first in the frequency domain for a range of canyon widths and foundation to dam moduli ratios. Then, the time domain differences between the crest displacements and the maximum principal stress were obtained using 70 different ground motions in order to show the possible bias introduced into the analysis results due to the modeling approach. The results of the study show that even for relatively wide canyons, the 2D analysis can lead to misleading predictions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
127.
This paper reports findings of an experimental study conducted on replaceable links for steel eccentrically braced frames (EBFs). A replaceable link detail which is based on splicing the directly connected braces and the beam outside the link is proposed. This detail eliminates the need to use hydraulic jacks and flame cutting operations for replacement purposes. Performance of this proposed replaceable link was studied by conducting eight nearly full‐scale EBF tests under quasi‐static cyclic loading. The link length ratio, stiffening of the link, loading protocol, connection type, bolt pretension, gap size of splice connections, and demand‐to‐capacity ratios of members were considered as the prime variables. The specimens primarily showed two types of failure modes: link web fracture and fracture of the flange at the link‐to‐brace connection. No failures were observed at the splice connections indicating that the proposed replaceable link detail provides an excellent response. The inelastic rotation capacity provided by the replaceable links satisfied the requirements of the AISC Seismic Provisions for Structural Steel Buildings (AISC341–10). The overstrength factor of the links exceeded 2.0, which is larger than the value assumed for EBF links by design provisions. The high level of overstrength resulted in brace buckling in one of the specimens demonstrating the importance of overstrength factor used for EBF links. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
128.
F. Tuba Kadirioğlu Recai F. Kartal Tuğbay Kılıç Doğan Kalafat Tamer Y. Duman Tuba Eroğlu Azak Selim Özalp Ömer Emre 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3317-3338
Many catalogues, agency reports and research articles have been published on seismicity of Turkey and its surrounding since 1950s. Given existing magnitude heterogeneity, erroneous information on epicentral location, event date and time, this past published data however is far from fulfilling the required standards. Paucity of a standardized format in the available catalogues have reinforced the need for a refined and updated catalogue for earthquake related hazard and risk studies. During this study, ~37,000 earthquakes and related parametric data were evaluated by utilizing more than 41 published studies and, an integrated database was prepared in order to analyse all parameters acquired from the catalogues and references for each event. Within the scope of this study, the epicentral locations of M ≥ 5.0 events were firstly reappraised based on the updated Active Fault Map of Turkey. An improved catalogue of 12.674 events for the period 1900–2012 was as a result recompiled for the region between 32–45N° and 23–48E° by analyzing in detail accuracy of all seismological parameters available for each event. The events consist of M ≥ 4.0 are reported in several magnitude scales (e.g. moment magnitude, Mw; surface wave magnitude, MS; body-wave magnitude mb; local magnitude ML and duration magnitude Md) whereas the maximum focal depth reaches up to 225-km. In order to provide homogenous data, the improved catalogue is unified in terms of Mw. Fore-and aftershocks were also removed from the catalogue and completeness analyses were performed both separately for various tectonic sources and as a whole for the study region of interest. Thus, the prepared homogenous and declustered catalogue consisting of 6573 events provides the basis for a reliable input to the seismic hazard assessment studies for Turkey and its surrounding areas. 相似文献
129.
Laurentiu Danciu Karin Şeşetyan Mine Demircioglu Levent Gülen Mehdi Zare Roberto Basili Ata Elias Shota Adamia Nino Tsereteli Hilal Yalçın Murat Utkucu Muhammad Asif Khan Mohammad Sayab Khaled Hessami Andrea N. Rovida Massimiliano Stucchi Jean-Pierre Burg Arkady Karakhanian Hektor Babayan Mher Avanesyan Tahir Mammadli Mahmood Al-Qaryouti Doğan Kalafat Otar Varazanashvili Mustafa Erdik Domenico Giardini 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3465-3496
130.
Ömer Emre Tamer Y. Duman Selim Özalp Fuat Şaroğlu Şeyda Olgun Hasan Elmacı Tolga Çan 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3229-3275
We have updated the active fault map of Turkey and built its database within GIS environment. In the study, four distinct active fault types, classified according to geochronological criteria and character, were delineated on the 1:25,000 base map of Turkey. 176 fault segments not included in the former active fault map of Turkey, have been identified and documented. We infer that there are 485 single fault segments which are substantially potential seismic sources. In total 1964 active-fault base-maps were transferred into the GIS environment. Each fault was attributed with key parameters such as class, activity, type, length, trend, and attitude of fault plane. The fault parameters are also supported by slip-rate and seismogenic depth inferred from available GPS, seismological and paleoseismological data. Additionally, expected maximum magnitude for each fault segment was estimated by empirical equations. We present the database in a parametric catalogue of fault segments to be of interest in earthquake engineering and seismotectonics. The study provides essential geological and seismological inputs for regional seismic hazard analysis of all over Turkey and its vicinity. 相似文献