Flood Forecasting and Warning at the River Basin and at the European Scale   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

Micha Werner  Paolo Reggiani  Ad De Roo  Paul Bates  Eric Sprokkereef 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(1-2):25-42

Application of recent advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has the potential of allowing delivery of flood warning to extend well beyond the typical lead times of operational flood warning at the river basin scale. A prototype system, a European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS) developed to deliver such pre-warnings, aiming at providing a pre-warning at lead times of between 5 and 10 days is described. Considerable uncertainty in the weather forecast at these lead times, however, means that resulting forecasts must be treated probabilistically, and although probabilistic forecasts may be easy to disseminate, these are difficult to understand. This paper explores the structure of operational flood warning, and shows that integration in the flood warning process is required if the pre-warning is to fulfil its potential. A simple method of summarising the information in the pre-warning is presented, and the system in hindcast mode is shown to give clear indication of an upcoming major event in the Rhine basin up to 10 days before the actual event. Finally recommendations on the use of data assimilation to embed the EFFS system within an operational environment are given.  相似文献   

Monitoring changes in shoreline position adjacent to the Hadera power station, Israel   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Micha Klein  Michal Lichter 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2006,26(3-4):210-226

The paper focuses on the shoreline changes following the construction of a power station cooling harbor in Hadera, Israel, and uses a statistical analysis method capable of mitigating the effect of short-term changes on the measurement of long-term changes. The changes in shoreline position detected 25 years after the harbor's construction were compared with forecasts of the Central Lab for Hydraulics of France (LCHF) in 1976, which correctly predicted the effects of the construction on the nearby coast and with studies conducted a few years after the construction. A comparison between later studies and the study described herein shows a spatial effect of the harbor on shoreline position of 750 m north of the northern breakwater. No effect was found south of the harbor. The harbor's temporal effects extend over a few years from the beginning of the construction until the coast reaches a new sedimentary equilibrium. The statistical analysis method employed was found useful for the detection of long-term changes in shoreline position such as those caused by the construction of coastal structures; it will not be suitable for the detection of long-term changes resulting from a rise in sea-level.  相似文献   

Résultats préliminaires d'études sur des méthodes de détermination de l'âge individuel par l'histologie chez quelques Téléostéens     

Par C. Grieder-Kuhn  Ch. Ruhlé 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1986,48(2):122-134

The study discusses the potential of various histological methods for enhancing the readability of the lines of arrested growth (LAC, annuli) in different bony elements, particularly fin rays, of some freshwater fish species.   相似文献   

The trispectrum of the cosmic microwave background on subdegree angular scales: an analysis of the BOOMERanG data     

G. De Troia  P. A. R. Ade  J. J. Bock  J. R. Bond  A. Boscaleri  C. R. Contaldi  B. P. Crill  P. de Bernardis  P. G. Ferreira  M. Giacometti  E. Hivon  V. V. Hristov  M. Kunz  A. E. Lange  S. Masi  P. D. Mauskopf  T. Montroy  P. Natoli  C. B. Netterfield  E. Pascale  F. Piacentini  G. Polenta  G. Romeo  J. E. Ruhl 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(1):284-292

  相似文献   

Energy conditions and inhomogeneities in the Universe     

Michaël Heller 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1975,33(2):L33-L35

The so-called dominant energy condition and the strong energy condition (of singularity theorems) cannot be violated by the negative effective ‘pressure’ arising from the inhomogeneous distribution of matter in the Universe.  相似文献   

Measurement of a Peak in the Cosmic Microwave Background Power Spectrum from the North American Test Flight of Boomerang     

Mauskopf PD  Ade PA  de Bernardis P  Bock JJ  Borrill J  Boscaleri A  Crill BP  DeGasperis G  De Troia G  Farese P  Ferreira PG  Ganga K  Giacometti M  Hanany S  Hristov VV  Iacoangeli A  Jaffe AH  Lange AE  Lee AT  Masi S  Melchiorri A  Melchiorri F  Miglio L  Montroy T  Netterfield CB  Pascale E  Piacentini F  Richards PL  Romeo G  Ruhl JE  Scannapieco E  Scaramuzzi F  Stompor R  Vittorio N 《The Astrophysical journal》2000,536(2):L59-L62

We describe a measurement of the angular power spectrum of anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at scales of 0&fdg;3 to 5 degrees from the North American test flight of the Boomerang experiment. Boomerang is a balloon-borne telescope with a bolometric receiver designed to map CMB anisotropies on a long-duration balloon flight. During a 6 hr test flight of a prototype system in 1997, we mapped more than 200 deg(2) at high Galactic latitudes in two bands centered at 90 and 150 GHz with a resolution of 26&arcmin; and 16&farcm;5 FWHM, respectively. Analysis of the maps gives a power spectrum with a peak at angular scales of 1 degrees with an amplitude 70 μK(CMB).  相似文献   

Cytochrome P450 1A1 expression in cetacean skin biopsies from the Indian Ocean     

Jauniaux T  Farnir F  Fontaine M  Kiszka J  Sarlet M  Coignoul F 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(6):1317-1319

The study describes cytochrome P450 1A1 (CYPA1) expression in the skin of different cetacean species (Megaptera novaeangliae, n = 15; Stenella attenuata, n = 7 and Stenella longirostris, n = 24) from the Mozambique Channel island of Mayotte. Immunohistochemical examination was performed with a monoclonal antibody against scup cytochrome CYPA1. The sex was determined using a molecular approach consisting in the genotyping sex-specific genes. CYPA1 was detected at the junction between epidermis and blubber on dolphins only, mostly in the endothelial cells. Similar observation was obtained in the dermis of one M. novaeangliae. Immunohistochemical slides were scored to evaluate the expression of the CYPA1 and a higher expression was observed in S. longirostris, suggesting a higher exposure to pollutants for this species. The difference of expression between sexes was not significant.  相似文献   

Societal need for improved understanding of climate change, anthropogenic impacts, and geo-hazard warning drive development of ocean observatories in European Seas     

Henry A. Ruhl  Michel AndréLaura Beranzoli  M. Namik Ça?atayAna Colaço  Mathilde CannatJuanjo J. Dañobeitia  Paolo FavaliLouis Géli  Michael GilloolyJens Greinert  Per O.J. HallRobert Huber  Johannes KarstensenRichard S. Lampitt  Kate E. LarkinVasilios Lykousis  Jürgen MienertJ. Miguel Miranda  Roland PersonImants G. Priede  Ingrid PuillatLaurenz Thomsen  Christoph Waldmann 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,91(1):1-33

Society’s needs for a network of in situ ocean observing systems cross many areas of earth and marine science. Here we review the science themes that benefit from data supplied from ocean observatories. Understanding from existing studies is fragmented to the extent that it lacks the coherent long-term monitoring needed to address questions at the scales essential to understand climate change and improve geo-hazard early warning. Data sets from the deep sea are particularly rare with long-term data available from only a few locations worldwide. These science areas have impacts on societal health and well-being and our awareness of ocean function in a shifting climate.Substantial efforts are underway to realise a network of open-ocean observatories around European Seas that will operate over multiple decades. Some systems are already collecting high-resolution data from surface, water column, seafloor, and sub-seafloor sensors linked to shore by satellite or cable connection in real or near-real time, along with samples and other data collected in a delayed mode. We expect that such observatories will contribute to answering major ocean science questions including: How can monitoring of factors such as seismic activity, pore fluid chemistry and pressure, and gas hydrate stability improve seismic, slope failure, and tsunami warning? What aspects of physical oceanography, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems will be most sensitive to climatic and anthropogenic change? What are natural versus anthropogenic changes? Most fundamentally, how are marine processes that occur at differing scales related?The development of ocean observatories provides a substantial opportunity for ocean science to evolve in Europe. Here we also describe some basic attributes of network design. Observatory networks provide the means to coordinate and integrate the collection of standardised data capable of bridging measurement scales across a dispersed area in European Seas adding needed certainty to estimates of future oceanic conditions. Observatory data can be analysed along with other data such as those from satellites, drifting floats, autonomous underwater vehicles, model analysis, and the known distribution and abundances of marine fauna in order to address some of the questions posed above. Standardised methods for information management are also becoming established to ensure better accessibility and traceability of these data sets and ultimately to increase their use for societal benefit. The connection of ocean observatory effort into larger frameworks including the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) is integral to its success. It is in a greater integrated framework that the full potential of the component systems will be realised.  相似文献   

First results from the arcminute cosmology bolometer array receiver     

M. C. Runyan  P. A. R. Ade  J. J. Bock  J. R. Bond  C. Cantalupo  C. R. Contaldi  M. D. Daub  J. H. Goldstein  P. L. Gomez  W. L. Holzapfel  C. L. Kuo  A. E. Lange  M. Lueker  M. Newcomb  J. B. Peterson  D. Pogosyan  A. K. Romer  J. Ruhl  E. Torbet  D. Woolsey 《New Astronomy Reviews》2003,47(11-12):915

We review the first science results from the Arcminute Cosmology Bolometer Array Receiver (ACBAR); a multi-frequency millimeter-wave receiver optimized for observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) effect in clusters of galaxies. ACBAR was installed on the 2 m Viper telescope at the South Pole in January 2001 and the results presented here incorporate data through July 2002. We present the power spectrum of the CMB at 150 GHz over the range ℓ=150–3000 measured by ACBAR as well as estimates for the values of the cosmological parameters within the context of ΛCDM models. We find that the inclusion of Ω_Λ greatly improves the fit to the power spectrum. We also observe a slight excess of small-scale anisotropy at 150 GHz; if interpreted as power from the SZ effect of unresolved clusters, the measured signal is consistent with CBI and BIMA within the context of the SZ power spectrum models tested.  相似文献   

Possible evidence for continued ejection of RR telescopii     

Michaël Friedjung 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1974,29(1):L5-L6

FeII and [FeII] intensity measures enable the size of the region containing singly ionized iron to be estimated, calculations for a phase near maximum light support a continued ejection model.  相似文献