Définition et datation de la Formation de Venaco (Corse) : dépôt d’origine gravitaire d’âge Priabonien     

Jean Ferrandini  Michelle Ferrandini  Philippe Rossi  Brengre Savary-Sismondini 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(12):921-929

Priabonian age is highlighted for the first time in Corsica in the Venaco Formation using the presence of specific microfauna (in particular some representatives of Turborotalia cerroazulensis lineage). This silicoclastic formation is mainly represented by coarse facies. It is composed of three members from south to north and from oldest towards youngest: member of Uboli, Cardo and Orsu. The sedimentologic analysis reveals a gravity depositional environment, involving different type of currents. Sedimentologic and chronologic characteristics make the Venaco Formation and the Annot Formation (p.p.) equivalent. Dating the Venaco Fm. brings confirmation that the green schist metamorphism of the Variscan batholith and the related deformation are from the pre-Priabonian period.  相似文献   

The Use of Geographically Weighted Regression for Spatial Prediction: An Evaluation of Models Using Simulated Data Sets   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

P. Harris  A. S. Fotheringham  R. Crespo  M. Charlton 《Mathematical Geosciences》2010,42(6):657-680

Increasingly, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is being used for spatial prediction rather than for inference. Our study compares GWR as a predictor to (a) its global counterpart of multiple linear regression (MLR); (b) traditional geostatistical models such as ordinary kriging (OK) and universal kriging (UK), with MLR as a mean component; and (c) hybrids, where kriging models are specified with GWR as a mean component. For this purpose, we test the performance of each model on data simulated with differing levels of spatial heterogeneity (with respect to data relationships in the mean process) and spatial autocorrelation (in the residual process). Our results demonstrate that kriging (in a UK form) should be the preferred predictor, reflecting its optimal statistical properties. However the GWR-kriging hybrids perform with merit and, as such, a predictor of this form may provide a worthy alternative to UK for particular (non-stationary relationship) situations when UK models cannot be reliably calibrated. GWR predictors tend to perform more poorly than their more complex GWR-kriging counterparts, but both GWR-based models are useful in that they provide extra information on the spatial processes generating the data that are being predicted.  相似文献   

Modern influences on chironomid distribution in western Ireland: potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction     

Aaron P. Potito  Craig A. Woodward  Michelle McKeown  David W. Beilman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,52(4):385-404

Ireland provides a unique setting for the study of past climates, as its climate is dominated by westerly airflow from the North Atlantic and readily responsive to changes in North Atlantic circulation patterns. Although there has been substantial research on Ireland’s past environments, quantitative palaeolimnological research, especially chironomid-based research, has been lacking. In order to further develop chironomid-based palaeolimnological investigations, a calibration set was constructed to determine the dominant environmental controls on modern chironomids in western Ireland. Chironomid subfossils were collected from surface sediments of 50 lakes. The lakes were characterised with 36 environmental variables, including physical attributes, lake water characteristics, lake sediment characteristics and land cover within each catchment. In this exploratory study, no specific environmental variable was targeted and lakes were chosen to span gradients of latitude, elevation, depth and trophic status. Redundancy analysis showed that six environmental variables—mean July air temperature, lake depth, dissolved organic carbon, and percentage catchment land cover of agriculture, peat bog and scrubland—captured a large and statistically significant portion of the variance in the chironomid data. July temperature and agricultural land cover were the most dominant environmental variables, with July temperature proving the most suitable for inference model development. A classical weighted-averaging model was developed to estimate July air temperature, with a coefficient of determination (r _jack ² ) of 0.60 and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.57 °C. Results suggest that summer temperature is the dominant influence on chironomid distribution across a wide variety of lake types, and the relatively small RMSEP should allow for more accurate reconstructions of Ireland’s relatively subdued Holocene temperature fluctuations.  相似文献   

Land use dynamics in Brazilian La Plata Basin and anthropogenic climate change     

Ana Carolina F. de Vasconcelos  Sandro L. Schlindwein  Marcos A. Lana  Alfredo C. Fantini  Michelle Bonatti  Luiz R. D’Agostini  Sergio R. Martins 《Climatic change》2014,127(1):73-81

The La Plata Basin (LPB) is one of the most important regions for agriculture and livestock production in South America, playing a central role in the world food production and food security. Within its borders is also located the whole Brazilian Pantanal region. Identifying the most important land use sectors in LPB as well as the changes observed in the past years is fundamental to recognize which areas of the basin might be more vulnerable to climate change in order to design adaptation strategies. A general characterization of land use and livestock production of Brazilian LPB was done by using the System of Automatic Retrieving (SIDRA) of Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) platform as the major source of data. It was observed expressive increases in land areas used for temporary crops, such as soybean, sugarcane, and maize, as well as increases in poultry and swine production. These important changes in agricultural land use and livestock production are currently associated to non-climatic drivers, but this dynamic might be strongly affected by the consequences of climate change and variability, with negative socio-economic impacts for the whole region.  相似文献   

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations     

James M. Murphy  Ben B. B. Booth  Chris A. Boulton  Robin T. Clark  Glen R. Harris  Jason A. Lowe  David M. H. Sexton 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2855-2885

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.  相似文献   

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania     

Michael R. Grose  Paul Fox-Hughes  Rebecca M. B. Harris  Nathaniel L. Bindoff 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):255-269

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.  相似文献   

Trends in Abundance Indices of Fishes in Maryland’s Coastal Bays During 1972–2009     

Jennifer Pincin  Michael J. Wilberg  Lora Harris  Angel Willey 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(4):791-800

Maryland’s coastal bays provide habitat for juveniles of many commercially and recreationally important species of shellfish and finfish. Since 1972, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources has conducted the Maryland Coastal Bays Trawl and Seine Survey to monitor the populations of key species. The survey has undergone substantial spatial and methodological changes affecting the interpretation of simple indices of abundance. We developed generalized linear models to standardize the indices of abundance of five commonly caught fish species: Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus, weakfish Cynoscion regalis, spot Leiostomus xanthurus, bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli, and summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus. Density declined significantly since 1972 for menhaden, bay anchovy, and spot in at least one region within the coastal bays. The northern bays had significantly higher densities than the southern bays for all species. Changes in abundance indices of the five species examined were not related to sea grass coverage, temperature, salinity, nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios, and other habitat variables but were likely a result of stock-wide recruitment processes.  相似文献   

Discovery of possible mega-thrust earthquake along the Seram Trough from records of 1629 tsunami in eastern Indonesian region   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Zac Yung-Chun Liu  Ron A. Harris 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(3):1311-1328

Arthur Wichmann’s “Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago” documents several large earthquakes and tsunami throughout the Banda Arc region that can be interpreted as mega-thrust events. However, the source regions of these events are not known. One of the largest and well-documented events in the catalog is the great earthquake and tsunami affecting the Banda Islands on August 1, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15-m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after violent shaking stopped. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of uncommonly frequent seismic activity in the region that tapered off with time, which can be interpreted as aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use an inverse modeling approach to numerically reconstruct the tsunami, which constrains the likely location and magnitude of the 1629 earthquake. Only, linear numerical models are applied due to the low resolution of bathymetry in the Banda Islands and Ambon. Therefore, we apply various wave amplification factors (1.5–4) derived from simulations of recent, well-constrained tsunami to bracket the upper and lower limits of earthquake moment magnitudes for the event. The closest major earthquake sources to the Banda Islands are the Tanimbar and Seram Troughs of the Banda subduction/collision zone. Other source regions are too far away for such a short arrival time of the tsunami after shaking. Moment magnitudes predicted by the models in order to produce a 15-m tsunami are M_w of 9.8–9.2 on the Tanimbar Trough and M_w 8.8–8.2 on the Seram Trough. The arrival times of these waves are 58 min for Tanimbar Trough and 30 min for Seram Trough. The model also predicts 5-m run-up for Ambon from a Tanimbar Trough source, which is inconsistent with the historical records. Ambon is mostly shielded from a wave generated by a Seram Trough source. We conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. Only one earthquake >M_w 8.0 is recorded instrumentally from the eastern Indonesia region although high rates of strain (50–80 mm/a) are measured across the Seram section of the Banda subduction zone. Enough strain has already accumulated since the last major historical event to produce an earthquake of similar size to the 1629 event. Due to the rapid population growth in coastal areas in this region, it is imperative that the most vulnerable coastal areas prepare accordingly.  相似文献   

A shallow seismic refraction study of the Versailles cryptoexplosion structure,central Kentucky     

James B. Harris  Daniel R. Jones  R. L. Street 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1991,26(1):47-53

Abstract— The Versailles cryptoexplosion structure, located in central Kentucky, contains a partially brecciated central uplift and a boundary marked by arcuate faulting. Seismic refraction data were used to divide the structure into distinct units on the basis of velocity. A zone of brecciated material shows a decrease in velocity compared with surrounding rocks. Locally thickened strata are present on the flanks of the central uplift. An increase of the bedrock velocity in the area surrounding the structure suggests localized dolomization of fractured bedrock, and a plug of fractured strata near the base of the brecciation appears to be uplifted. Based on the geometry of deformation seen in known impact structures, and the integration of this study with previous geological and geophysical work in the area, it is suggested that our results support the interpretation of the Versailles structure as an eroded astrobleme (Black, 1964b; Seeger, 1972).  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia     

Jai Vaze  Paul Barnett  Geoffrey Beale  Warrick Dawes  Ray Evans  Narendra Kumar Tuteja  Brian Murphy  Guy Geeves  Michelle Miller 《水文研究》2004,18(9):1613-1637

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献