A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Surface temperature differences between minerals in crystalline rocks: Implications for granular disaggregation of granites through thermal fatigue   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Miguel Gmez-Heras  Bernard J. Smith  Rafael Fort 《Geomorphology》2006,78(3-4):236-249

Thermal expansion differences between minerals within rocks under insolation have previously been assumed to drive breakdown by means of granular disaggregation. However, there have been no definitive demonstrations of the efficacy of this weathering mechanism. Different surface temperatures between minerals should magnify thermal expansion differences, and thus subject adjacent minerals to repeated stresses that might cause breakdown through fatigue failure. This work confirms the existence of surface temperature differences between minerals in granitic rocks under simulated short-term temperature fluctuations so as to discriminate their potential for initiating granular disaggregation. The influence of colour, as a surrogate for albedo, and crystal size, as a function of thermal mass are specifically identified because of their ease of quantification. Four rock types with a range of these properties were examined, and subjected to repeated short-term temperature cycles by radiative heating and cooling under laboratory conditions. Results show that while albedo is the main control for overall and individual maximum temperatures, crystal size is the main factor controlling higher temperature differences between minerals. Thus, stones with large differences of mineral sizes can undergo magnified stresses due to thermal expansion differences.  相似文献   

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship     

S-S. Xu  A. F. Nieto-Samaniego  S. A. Alaniz-Álvarez  L. G. Velasquillo-Martínez 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(5):841-853

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.  相似文献   

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils     

Mohamed M. Hantush  Rao. S. Govindaraju  Miguel A. Marioand Zhonglong Zhang 《Journal of Hydrology》2002,260(1-4):58-74

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.  相似文献   

Mixing, sediment accumulation and focusing using 210Pb and 137Cs     

San Miguel  J.P. Bolívar  R. García-Tenorio 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2003,29(1):1-11

The Portil lagoon is a natural freshwater reservoir located at the southwest of Spain, near the coast. In its surroundings an important tourist complex has been developed since the earlier 1970s. This has resulted in increased loads of nutrients, specially during summer months. In order to evaluate the impact from humans on the lagoon caused by anthropogenic activities, we have determined vertical profiles of excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs in a sediment core taken from its bottom. Vertical profile of excess ²¹⁰Pb seems to indicate that the sediment core was affected by large-scale mixing processes. Nevertheless this possibility was ruled out based on the shape of the ¹³⁷Cs vertical distribution after modelling the ¹³⁷Cs profile considering large-scale mixing. The chronology developed from ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs has allowed us to calculate the temporal evolution of the mass sedimentation rate during the last century. This mass sedimentation rate increased in 1973: from 0.08(2) g cm^-2 a^-1 in the period 1900-1973 to 0.17(5) g cm^-2 a^-1 in the period 1973-1995. This increase could be related to land-movements in the drainage area and to permitted sewage inputs into the lagoon, both with its origin in the growing/running of the surrounding tourist complex.  相似文献   

Daily geomagnetic variations on the Iberian Peninsula   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Marta Cueto  Don McKnight  Miguel Herraiz 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,152(1):113-123

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Nest microhabitat selection in larks from a European semi-arid shrub-steppe: the role of sunlight and predation     

Miguel Yanes  Jesús Herranz  Francisco Suárez 《Journal of Arid Environments》1996,32(4):469-478

We analysed nest site selection in two shrub-steppe larks, the lesser short-toed larkCalandrella rufescensand the Thekla larkGalerida theklae. Both species nest on the ground next to a bush preferably facing north or north-east. Nestling growth and fledging weight are greater when the nest faces these directions. Both species prefer to nest next to camephytes with little foliage, and the lesser short-toed lark chooses sites with high visibility. We conclude that sunlight and nest predation are fundamental selective pressures determining nest microhabitat selection in larks in semi-arid areas.  相似文献   

Regional map of earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard using the lateral spreading displacement index D LL     

Miguel A. Jaimes  Mauro Niño  Eduardo Reinoso 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(3):1595-1618

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Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain          下载免费PDF全文

Hassane Moutahir  Pau Bellot  Robert Monjo  Juan Bellot  Miguel Garcia  Issam Touhami 《水文研究》2017,31(1):161-176

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Using the Continuously Disturbed Line to Estimate the Mechanical Behaviour of Unsaturated Compacted Soils     

Kenton C. Power  Julio Ángel Infante Sedano  Sai K. Vanapalli 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(4):833-840

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