‘Telling a different tale’: literary, historical and meteorological readings of a Norfolk heatwave     

Mike Hulme 《Climatic change》2012,113(1):5-21

Articulated initially by physical scientists, the idea of anthropogenic global climate change has been subject to increasingly diverse examinations in recent years. The idea has been appropriated by economists, worked with by engineers and, more recently, scrutinised by social scientists and humanities scholars. Underlying these examinations are different, yet rarely exposed, presumptions about what kind of ??thing?? climate is: a physical abstraction, a statistical construct, an imaginative idea. If the ontological status of climate is rarely made explicit it becomes difficult to know whether the different epistemologies used to reveal climates ?? and their changing properties ?? are appropriate. This study offers one way in which the different worlds inhabited by the idea of climate may be revealed. It does so by examining a heatwave: a powerful meteorological phenomenon one would think and one which scientific accounts of climate change tell us will become more frequent in the future. The heatwave in question occurred in July 1900 in the county of Norfolk, England. This heatwave inhabits three very different worlds: the imaginative world of L P Hartley in his novel The Go Between; the historical world of late Victorian Norfolk; and the digital world of the climate sciences. The traces of the heatwave left in these different worlds are varied and access to them is uneven. Constructing an adequate interpretation of this singular climatic event and its meaning is challenging. The study suggests that grasping the idea of climate may be harder than we think. Climates may be ineffable. Yet the approach to the study of climate illustrated here opens up new ways of thinking about the meaning and significance of climate change.  相似文献   

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ioan Fazey  Mike Kesby  Anna Evely  Ian Latham  Daniel Wagatora  Jude-Edward Hagasua  Mark S. Reed  Mike Christie 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):713-728

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.  相似文献   

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways     

Amy Solomon  Sang-Ik Shin  Michael A. Alexander  Julian P. McCreary 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):315-331

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.  相似文献   

Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Meg A. Krawchuk  Steve G. Cumming  Mike D. Flannigan 《Climatic change》2009,92(1-2):83-97

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.  相似文献   

Unstable climates: Exploring the statistical and social constructions of ‘normal’ climate     

Mike Hulme  Suraje Dessai  Irene Lorenzoni  Donald R. Nelson 《Geoforum》2009,40(2):197-206

The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of ‘normal’ climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline ‘normals’ for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical ‘normals’ reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them.  相似文献   

Stardust impact analogs: Resolving pre‐ and postimpact mineralogy in Stardust Al foils     

Penelope J. WOZNIAKIEWICZ  Hope A. ISHII  Anton T. KEARSLEY  Mark J. BURCHELL  John P. BRADLEY  Mark C. PRICE  Nick TESLICH  Martin R. LEE  Mike J. COLE 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(4):708-728

Abstract– The grains returned by NASA’s Stardust mission from comet 81P/Wild 2 represent a valuable sample set that is significantly advancing our understanding of small solar system bodies. However, the grains were captured via impact at ～6.1 km s^?1 and have experienced pressures and temperatures that caused alteration. To ensure correct interpretations of comet 81P/Wild 2 mineralogy, and therefore preaccretional or parent body processes, an understanding of the effects of capture is required. Using a two‐stage light‐gas gun, we recreated Stardust encounter conditions and generated a series of impact analogs for a range of minerals of cometary relevance into flight spare Al foils. Through analyses of both preimpact projectiles and postimpact analogs by transmission electron microscopy, we explore the impact processes occurring during capture and distinguish between those materials inherent to the impactor and those that are the product of capture. We review existing and present additional data on olivine, diopside, pyrrhotite, and pentlandite. We find that surviving crystalline material is observed in most single grain impactor residues. However, none is found in that of a relatively monodisperse aggregate. A variety of impact‐generated components are observed in all samples. Al incorporation into melt‐derived phases allows differentiation between melt and shock‐induced phases. In single grain impactor residues, impact‐generated phases largely retain original (nonvolatile) major element ratios. We conclude that both surviving and impact‐generated phases in residues of single grain impactors provide valuable information regarding the mineralogy of the impacting grain whilst further studies are required to fully understand aggregate impacts and the role of subgrain interactions during impact.  相似文献   

XUV Photometer System (XPS): Improved Solar Irradiance Algorithm Using CHIANTI Spectral Models     

Thomas N. Woods  Phillip C. Chamberlin  W. K. Peterson  R. R. Meier  Phil G. Richards  Douglas J. Strickland  Gang Lu  Liying Qian  Stanley C. Solomon  B. A. Iijima  A. J. Mannucci  B. T. Tsurutani 《Solar physics》2008,250(2):235-267

Solar soft X-ray (XUV) radiation is highly variable on all time scales and strongly affects Earth’s ionosphere and upper atmosphere; consequently, the solar XUV irradiance is important for atmospheric studies and for space weather applications. Although there have been several recent measurements of the solar XUV irradiance, detailed understanding of the solar XUV irradiance, especially its variability during flares, has been hampered by the broad bands measured in the XUV range. In particular, the simple conversion of the XUV photometer signal into irradiance, in which a static solar spectrum is assumed, overestimates the flare variations by more than a factor of two as compared to the atmospheric response to the flares. To address this deficiency in the simple conversion, an improved algorithm using CHIANTI spectral models has been developed to process the XUV Photometer System (XPS) measurements with its broadband photometers. Model spectra representative of quiet Sun, active region, and flares are combined to match the signals from the XPS and produce spectra from 0.1 to 40 nm in 0.1-nm intervals for the XPS Level 4 data product. The two XPS instruments are aboard NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) satellites. In addition, the XPS responsivities have been updated for the latest XPS data processing version. The new XPS results are consistent with daily variations from the previous simple conversion technique used for XPS and are also consistent with spectral measurements made at wavelengths longer than 27 nm. Most importantly, the XPS flare variations are reduced by factors of 2 – 4 at wavelengths shorter than 14 nm and are more consistent, for the first time, with atmospheric response to solar flares. Along with the details of the new XPS algorithm, several comparisons to dayglow and photoelectron measurements and model results are also presented to help verify the accuracy of the new XUV irradiance spectra.  相似文献   

Value of Information Introduced by a Resource Model Updating Framework     

Yüksel  Cansın  Minnecker  Corinna  Shishvan  Masoud Soleymani  Benndorf  Jörg  Buxton  Mike 《Mathematical Geosciences》2019,51(7):925-943

A primary concern of the mining industry is to meet production targets, which are required and defined by customers. Deviations from these targets, in terms of quality and quantity, highly affect the economical aspect. Recently, an efficient resource model updating framework concept has been proposed aiming for the improvement of raw material quality control and process efficiency in any type of mining operation. The concept integrates online sensor measurements, obtained during production, into the resource model. In this way, due to the spatial variability, quality attributes of the blocks that will be produced in the next days or weeks are being updated based on real-time measurements. The concept has been applied in a lignite field with the aim of identifying local impurities in a lignite seam and to improve the prediction of coal quality attributes in neighbouring blocks. This paper investigates the added value of using the resource model updating framework by using the value of information analysis. The expected benefit of additional information (integration of the online sensor measurements into the resource model) is compared to a case where there is no additional information integrated into the process. These benefits are evaluated based on the economic impact determined by applying the resource model updating framework in mine planning.

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Muscovite dehydration melting: Reaction mechanisms,microstructures, and implications for anatexis     

Brendan Dyck  David J. Waters  Marc R. St-Onge  Mike P. Searle 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(1):29-52

Dehydration melting of muscovite in metasedimentary sequences is the initially dominant mechanism of granitic melt generation in orogenic hinterlands. In dry (vapour-absent) crust, muscovite reacts with quartz to produce K-feldspar, sillimanite, and monzogranitic melt. When water vapour is present in excess, sillimanite and melt are the primary products of muscovite breakdown, and any K-feldspar produced is due to melt crystallization. Here we document the reaction mechanisms that control nucleation and growth of K-feldspar, sillimanite, and silicate melt in the metamorphic core of the Himalaya, and outline the microstructural criteria used to distinguish peritectic K-feldspar from K-feldspar grains formed during melt crystallization. We have characterized four stages of microstructural evolution in selected psammitic and pelitic samples from the Langtang and Everest regions: (a) K-feldspar nucleates epitaxially on plagioclase while intergrowths of fibrolitic sillimanite and the remaining hydrous melt components replace muscovite. (b) In quartzofeldspathic domains, K-feldspar replaces plagioclase by K⁺–Na⁺ cation exchange, while melt and intergrowths of sillimanite+quartz form in the aluminous domains. (c) At 7–8 vol.% melt generation, the system evolves from a closed to open system and all phases coarsen by up to two orders of magnitude, resulting in large K-feldspar porphyroblasts. (d) Preferential crystallization of residual melt on K-feldspar porphyroblasts and coarsened quartz forms an augen gneiss texture with a monzogranitic-tonalitic matrix that contains intergrowths of sillimanite+tourmaline+muscovite+apatite. Initial poikiloblasts of peritectic K-feldspar trap fine-grained inclusions of quartz and biotite by replacement growth of matrix plagioclase. During subsequent coarsening, peritectic K-feldspar grains overgrow and trap fabric-aligned biotite, resulting in a core to rim coarsening of inclusion size. These microstructural criteria enable a mass balance of peritectic K-feldspar and sillimanite to constrain the amount of free H₂O present during muscovite dehydration. The resulting modal proportion of K-feldspar in the Himalayan metamorphic core requires vapour-absent conditions during muscovite dehydration melting and leucogranite formation, indicating that the generation of large volumes of granitic melts in orogenic belts is not necessarily contingent on an external source of fluids.  相似文献   

Mercury: Internal structure and thermal evolution     

Robert W. Siegfried  Sean C. Solomon 《Icarus》1974,23(2):192-205

Astronomical observations and cosmochemical calculations suggest that the planet Mercury may be composed of materials which condensed at relatively high temperatures in the primitive solar nebula and may have a basaltic crust similar to parts of the moon. These findings, plus the long standing inference that Mercury is much richer in metallic iron than the other terrestrial planets, provide important constraints which we apply to models of the thermal evolution and density structure of the planet. The thermal history calculations include explicitly the differing thermal properties of iron and silicates and account for core segregation, melting and differentiation of heat sources, and simulated convection during melting. If the U and Th abundances of Mercury are taken from the cosmochemical model of Lewis, then the planet would have fully differentiated a metal core from the silicate mantle for all likely initial temperature distributions and heat transfer properties. Density distributions for the planet are calculated from the mean density and estimates of the present-day temperature. For the fully differentiated model, the moment of inertia C/MR² is 0.325 (J₂=0.302×10^?6). For models with lower heat source abundances, the planet may not yet have differentiated. The density profiles for such models give C/MR²=0.394 (J₂=0.487×10^?6). These results should be useful for preliminary interpretation of the Mariner 10 measurements of Mercury's gravitational field.  相似文献