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71.
We describe a combined dynamic atmosphere and maser propagation model of SiO maser emission in Mira variables. This model rectifies many of the defects of an earlier model of this type, particularly in relation to the infrared (IR) radiation field generated by dust and various wavelength-dependent, optically thick layers. Modelled masers form in rings with radii consistent with those found in very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations and with earlier models. This agreement requires the adoption of a radio photosphere of radius approximately twice that of the stellar photosphere, in agreement with observations. A radio photosphere of this size renders invisible certain maser sites with high amplification at low radii, and conceals high-velocity shocks, which are absent in radio continuum observations. The SiO masers are brightest at an optical phase of 0.1–0.25, which is consistent with observed phase lags. Dust can have both mild and profound effects on the maser emission. Maser rings, a shock and the optically thick layer in the SiO pumping band at 8.13 μm appear to be closely associated in three out of four phase samples.  相似文献   
72.

Background

No consensus has been reached how to measure the effectiveness of climate change mitigation in the land-use sector and how to prioritize land use accordingly. We used the long-term cumulative and average sectorial C stocks in biomass, soil and products, C stock changes, the substitution of fossil energy and of energy-intensive products, and net present value (NPV) as evaluation criteria for the effectiveness of a hectare of productive land to mitigate climate change and produce economic returns. We evaluated land management options using real-life data of Thuringia, a region representative for central-western European conditions, and input from life cycle assessment, with a carbon-tracking model. We focused on solid biomass use for energy production.

Results

In forestry, the traditional timber production was most economically viable and most climate-friendly due to an assumed recycling rate of 80% of wood products for bioenergy. Intensification towards "pure bioenergy production" would reduce the average sectorial C stocks and the C substitution and would turn NPV negative. In the forest conservation (non-use) option, the sectorial C stocks increased by 52% against timber production, which was not compensated by foregone wood products and C substitution. Among the cropland options wheat for food with straw use for energy, whole cereals for energy, and short rotation coppice for bioenergy the latter was most climate-friendly. However, specific subsidies or incentives for perennials would be needed to favour this option.

Conclusions

When using the harvested products as materials prior to energy use there is no climate argument to support intensification by switching from sawn-wood timber production towards energy-wood in forestry systems. A legal framework would be needed to ensure that harvested products are first used for raw materials prior to energy use. Only an effective recycling of biomaterials frees land for long-term sustained C sequestration by conservation. Reuse cascades avoid additional emissions from shifting production or intensification.  相似文献   
73.
Widespread mud volcanism across the thick (≤ 14 km) seismically active sedimentary prism of the Gulf of Cadiz is driven by tectonic activity along extensive strike–slip faults and thrusts associated with the accommodation of the Africa–Eurasia convergence and building of the Arc of Gibraltar, respectively. An investigation of eleven active sites located on the Moroccan Margin and in deeper waters across the wedge showed that light volatile hydrocarbon gases vented at the mud volcanoes (MVs) have distinct, mainly thermogenic, origins. Gases of higher and lower thermal maturities are mixed at Ginsburg and Mercator MVs on the Moroccan Margin, probably because high maturity gases that are trapped beneath evaporite deposits are transported upwards at the MVs and mixed with shallower, less mature, thermogenic gases during migration. At all other sites except for the westernmost Porto MV, δ13C–CH4 and δ2H–CH4 values of ~ − 50‰ and − 200‰, respectively, suggest a common origin for methane; however, the ratio of CH4/(C2H6 + C3H8) varies from ~ 10 to > 7000 between sites. Mixing of shallow biogenic and deep thermogenic gases cannot account for the observed compositions which instead result mainly from extensive migration of thermogenic gases in the deeply-buried sediments, possibly associated with biodegradation of C2+ homologues and secondary methane production at Captain Arutyunov and Carlos Ribeiro MVs. At the deep-water Bonjardim, Olenin and Carlos Ribeiro MVs, generation of C2+-enriched gases is probably promoted by high heat flux anomalies which have been measured in the western area of the wedge. At Porto MV, gases are highly enriched in CH4 having δ13C–CH4 ~ − 50‰, as at most sites, but markedly lower δ2H–CH4 values < − 250‰, suggesting that it is not generated by thermal cracking of n-alkanes but rather that it has a deep Archaeal origin. The presence of petroleum-type hydrocarbons is consistent with a thermogenic origin, and at sites where CH4 is predominant support the suggestion that gases have experienced extensive transport during which they mobilized oil from sediments ~ 2–4 km deep. These fluids then migrate into shallower, thermally immature muds, driving their mobilization and extrusion at the seafloor. At Porto MV, the limited presence of petroleum in mud breccia sediments further supports the hypothesis of a predominantly deep microbial origin of CH4.  相似文献   
74.
Tufa domes and towers are common around the margins of Winnemucca Dry Lake, Nevada, USA, a desiccated sub‐basin of pluvial Lake Lahontan. A 2·5 m diameter concentrically‐layered tufa mound from the southern end of the playa was sampled along its growth axis to determine timing, rate and geochemical conditions of tufa growth. A radiocarbon‐based age model indicates an 8200‐year tufa depositional record that begins near the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 23 400 cal yr bp ) and concludes at the end of the most recent Lahontan highstand (ca 15 200 cal yr bp ). Petrography, stable isotopes and major and minor elemental compositions are used to evaluate the rate and timing of tufa growth in the context of the depositional environment. The deposit built radially outward from a central nucleation point, with six decimetre‐scale layers defined by variations in texture. Two distinct tufa types are observed: the inner section is composed of two layers of thinolite pseudomorphs after ikaite, with the innermost layer comprised of very small pseudomorphs (<0·25 cm) and an outer layer composed of larger, ca 3 cm long pseudomorphs, followed by a transitional layer where thinolite pseudomorphs grade into calcite fans. The outer section consists of three distinct layers of thrombolitic micrite with a branching mesofabric. The textural change occurred as lake levels began to rise towards the most recent Lahontan highstand interval and probably was prompted by warming of lake waters caused by increased groundwater flux during highstand lake levels. The Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca variations suggest a warming trend in the tufa growth environment and may also reflect increasing growth rates of tufa associated with increased fluxes of groundwater. This systematic study of tufa deposition indicates the importance of the hydrology of the lacustrine tufa system for reconstructing palaeoenvironmental records, and particularly the interaction of ground and surface waters.  相似文献   
75.
New sediment core data from a unique slow-sedimentation rate site in Lake Tanganyika contain a much longer and continuous record of limnological response to climate change than have been previously observed in equatorial regions of central Africa. The new core site was first located through an extensive seismic reflection survey over the Kavala Island Ridge (KIR), a sedimented basement high that separates the Kigoma and Kalemie Basins in Lake Tanganyika.Proxy analyses of paleoclimate response carried out on core T97-52V include paleomagnetic and index properties, TOC and isotopic analyses of organic carbon, and diatom and biogenic silica analyses. A robust age model based on 11 radiocarbon (AMS) dates indicates a linear, continuous sedimentation rate nearly an order of magnitude slower here compared to other core sites around the lake. This age model indicates continuous sedimentation over the past 79 k yr, and a basal age in excess of 100 k yr.The results of the proxy analyses for the past 20 k yr are comparable to previous studies focused on that interval in Lake Tanganyika, and show that the lake was about 350 m lower than present at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Repetitive peaks in TOC and corresponding drops in 13C over the past 79 k yr indicate periods of high productivity and mixing above the T97-52V core site, probably due to cooler and perhaps windier conditions. From 80 through 58 k yr the 13C values are relatively negative (–26 to –28 l) suggesting predominance of algal contributions to bottom sediments at this site during this time. Following this interval there is a shift to higher values of 13C, indicating a possible shift to C-4 pathway-dominated grassland-type vegetation in the catchment, and indicating cooler, dryer conditions from 55 k yr through the LGM. Two seismic sequence boundaries are observed at shallow stratigraphic levels in the seismic reflection data, and the upper boundary correlates to a major discontinuity near the base of T97-52V. We interpret these discontinuities to reflect major, prolonged drops in lake level below the core site (393 m), with the lower boundary correlating to marine oxygen isotope Stage 6. This suggests that the previous glacial period was considerably cooler and more arid in the equatorial tropics than was the last glacial period.  相似文献   
76.
A plane strain model for a fault is presented that takes into account the inelastic deformation involved in fault growth. The model requires that the stresses at the tip of the fault never exceed the shear strength of the surrounding rock. This is achieved by taking into account a zone, around the perimeter of the fault surface, where the fault is not well developed, and in which sliding involves frictional work in excess of that required for sliding on the fully developed fault. The displacement profiles predicted by the fault model taper out gradually towards the tip of the fault and compare well with observed displacement profiles on faults. Using this model it is found that both (1) the shape of the displacement profile, and (2) the ratio of maximum displacement to fault length are a function of the shear strength of the rock in which the fault forms. For the case of a fault loaded by a constant remote stress, the displacement is linearly related to the length of the fault and the constant of proportionality depends on the shear strength of the surrounding rock normalized by its shear modulus. Using data from faults in different tectonic regions and rock types, the in situ strength of intact rock surrounding a fault is calculated to be on the order of 100 MPa (or a few kilobars). These estimates exceed, by perhaps a factor of 10, the strength of a well developed fault and thus provide an upper bound for the shear strength of the crust. It is also shown that the work required to propagate a fault scales with fault length. This result can explain the observation that the fracture energy calculated for earthquake ruptures and natural faults are several orders of magnitude greater than that for fractures in laboratory experiments.  相似文献   
77.
The gross distribution of seismicity in North America suggests the interior platform and shield provinces are relatively stable and significantly affect the intraplate stress field. Focal mechanisms and in-situ stress measurements indicate the cratonic areas of North America must be relatively immobile with respect to the eastern and western portions of the continent. Simple kinematic models are presented to illustrate the importance of the craton in any attempt to explain the general pattern of intraplate stress and seismicity in North America.  相似文献   
78.
In contrast to overpopulated Java the neighbouring island of Sumatra still provides huge unused land reserves. However, by far not all of these reserves can be regarded as real agricultural potentials, e.g. for resettlement projects. Especially the poor soils often prove an agricultural handicap. Besides soil fertility the existing vegetation has to be conidered. Thus, for example, the so called “alang alang grass savannas” in general show better potentialities than forest areas, while most of the swamps prove rather unsuitable for agricultural development. With regard to the already existing landuse types the cultivation of perennial bush- and tree crops, for instance rubber, seems to be best suited for further expansions. An expansion of annual food crops would be feasible too, however only be applying heavy capital inputs; here wet rice cultivation would be more appropiate than the permanent cultivation of annual upland crops like cassava, maize, etc. The traditional shifting cultivation does not serve as an alternative any longer. Animal breeding will have its difficulties, with the exception of certain highland areas. Taking into account all ecological, social, and economic reservations it is concluded that, in spite of considerable restrictions, a good part of the land reserves in southern Sumatra could still be opened and used successfully for agricultural purposes.  相似文献   
79.
Rethinking Earthquake Prediction   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
—We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and their possible societal uses differ for those time scales. Earthquake prediction should not be equated solely with short-term prediction—those with time scales of hours to weeks—nor should it be assumed that only short-term warnings either are or might be useful to society. A variety of "consumers" or stakeholders are likely to take different mitigation measures in response to each type of prediction. A series of recent articles in scientific literature and the media claim that earthquakes cannot be predicted and that exceedingly high accuracy is needed for predictions to be of societal value. We dispute a number of their key assumptions and conclusions, including their claim that earthquakes represent a self-organized critical (SOC) phenomenon, implying a system maintained on the edge of chaotic behavior at all times. We think this is correct but only in an uninteresting way, that is on global or continental scales. The stresses in the regions surrounding the rupture zones of individual large earthquakes are reduced below a SOC state at the times of those events and remain so for long periods. As stresses are slowly re-established by tectonic loading, a region approaches a SOC state during the last part of the cycle of large earthquakes. The presence of that state can be regarded as a long-term precursor rather than as an impediment to prediction. We examine other natural processes such as volcanic eruptions, severe storms and climate change that, like earthquakes, are also examples of complex processes, each with its own predictable, possibly predictable and inherently unpredictable elements. That a natural system is complex does not mean that predictions are not possible for some spatial, temporal and size regimes. Long-term, and perhaps intermediate-term, predictions for large earthquakes appear to be possible for very active fault segments. Predicting large events more than one cycle into the future appears to be inherently difficult, if not impossible since much of the nonlinearity in the earthquake process occurs at or near the time of large events. Progress in earthquake science and prediction over the next few decades will require increased monitoring in several active areas.  相似文献   
80.
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