Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models     

Emilia K. Jin  James L. Kinter III  B. Wang  C.-K. Park  I.-S. Kang  B. P. Kirtman  J.-S. Kug  A. Kumar  J.-J. Luo  J. Schemm  J. Shukla  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(6):647-664

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.  相似文献   

Petrographic and mineralogical study of hydrothermal alteration of the Rokko Granite at Hakusui-kyo and Horai-kyo along the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line in western Japan     

Toru Shimizu  Mitsuo Manaka  Kohei Kazahaya  Hitoshi Tsukamoto 《Island Arc》2021,30(1):e12407

Field, hand specimen, and microscopic investigations alongside X-ray diffraction analyses revealed four types of hydrothermal alteration (Type-A, -B, -C, and -D) based on the mode of occurrence of altered rocks and alteration mineral assemblage at Hakusui-kyo and Horai-kyo along the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) in western Japan. Type-A alteration locally occurred as gray alteration halos with sulfide minerals. Type-B and -C alterations were confined to fault gouge veins and occurred as greenish-gray veins and brown veins, respectively. Type-C alteration crosscut Type-B alteration. These alterations were associated with a number of granitic fragments including cohesive breccia and micrographic facies. Type-D alteration occurred locally in brown sediments. Different mineralogical features in the four alterations are summarized as (Type-A) illite; (Type-B) chlorite; (Type-C) limonite (Fe³⁺ hydroxides and goethite) and calcite; and (Type-D) limonite. We propose that the alterations can be broadly divided into Paleocene hydrothermal alteration (Type-A) and post-Late Miocene hydrothermal alteration (Type-B, -C, and -D): Type-A alteration occurred at approximately 200 °C during hydrothermal activity after a granitic intrusion in Late Cretaceous; Type-B, -C and -D alterations occurred under hydrothermal activity accompanying deep fluids with repeated ascents invoked by the seismicity of the ATTL after the Late Miocene. The fluids may have been the “Arima-type thermal waters” (i.e., mixtures of convective groundwater and Na-Ca-Cl-HCO₃-type fluids). Type-B alteration occurred in fractures at depths where the temperature was ≥150 °C. Type-C alteration overprinted Type-B alteration as a result of mixing of new deep fluids and descending oxidized meteoric water near the surface. Fe³⁺ hydroxides and calcite precipitated from the fluids due to the oxidation of Fe²⁺ and the degassing of CO₂, respectively, at ambient to near-boiling temperatures. When the ascending fluids gushed out from the fractures, they generated Type-D alteration at the surface under similar temperature conditions due to the oxidation of Fe²⁺.  相似文献   

Numerical analysis on seismic response of Shinkansen bridge-train interaction system under moderate earthquakes     

Mitsuo Kawatani  Toshiro Hayashikawa  Takashi Matsumoto 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2011,10(1):85-97

This study is intended to evaluate the influence of dynamic bridge-train interaction (BTI) on the seismic response of the Shinkansen system in Japan under moderate earthquakes. An analytical approach to simulate the seismic response of the BTI system is developed. In this approach, the behavior of the bridge structure is assumed to be within the elastic range under moderate ground motions. A bullet train car model idealized as a sprung-mass system is established. The viaduct is modeled with 3D finite elements. The BTI analysis algorithm is verified by comparing the analytical and experimental results. The seismic analysis is validated through comparison with a general program. Then, the seismic responses of the BTI system are simulated and evaluated. Some useful conclusions are drawn, indicating the importance of a proper consideration of the dynamic BTI in seismic design.  相似文献   

134Cs and 137Cs in the North Pacific Ocean derived from the March 2011 TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident,Japan. Part one: surface pathway and vertical distributions     

Michio Aoyama  Yasunori Hamajima  Mikael Hult  Mitsuo Uematsu  Eitarou Oka  Daisuke Tsumune  Yuichiro Kumamoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2016,72(1):53-65

  相似文献   

An anthophyllite-hornblende pair from Japan     

Tokiko Tiba  Mitsuo Hashinoto  Akira Kato 《Lithos》1970,3(4):335-340

Chemical, optical and X-ray powder data on coexisting anthophyllite and hornblende in an amphibolite are presented. Some chemical features of amphibole pairs are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

On the recent development of simple,coupled ocean-atmosphere models of ENSO   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Toshio Yamagata 《Journal of Oceanography》1986,42(4):299-307

Based on simple model results, I describe the recent progress in our understanding of physical mechanisms directly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In particular, I extract two extremes from recent simple coupled models in order to interprete two complementary phases of interannual ENSO events. I also discuss what is most necessary for more complete model studies useful to improve forecasting skills.  相似文献   

Structure of a pair of anticyclonic vortices in northern part of the South China Sea in autumn of 1994     

Fu Gang  Toshio Yamagata 《海洋学报(英文版)》2002,21(2):203-216

A pair of remarkable meso-scale anticyclonic vortices, one formed closely to another, inthe northern part of the South China Sea during the period from the later August to early September of 1994 were documented by the in situ observation data. Their spatial structures were examined in detail from the horizontal and two nearly perpendicular/vertical angles of view. It was shown that the horizontal scales of these two vortices were around 100, 50 km, and their vertical scales were about 500, 1000 m, respectively. Two "warm core" structures associated with these two vortices were found in their horizontal and vertical analyses. The closer spacing of these two vortices (namely, 60 km), which was smaller than the Rossby radius of deformation, suggested that they might merge with each other during their next evolution stages and form into a larger vortex eventually.  相似文献   

The Increase of Biogenic Sulfate Aerosol and Particle Number in Marine Atmosphere over the Northwestern North Pacific     

Atsushi Ooki  Kazuhiko Miura  Mitsuo Uematsu 《Journal of Oceanography》2003,59(6):799-807

During a cruise aboard the R/V Hakuho-maru in the northwestern North Pacific in the summer of 1998 the particle number concentrations and the major ionic components of size fractionated aerosols were measured to investigate the aerosol produced by marine biological activity. Continuous low concentrations of nitrate (<1.8 nmol m⁻³), similar to the marine air background level, were found over the northwestern North Pacific (40–45°N) and the Sea of Okhotsk (44–45°N). Over the Sea of Okhotsk, a high concentration of chlorophyll-a (5.4 mg m⁻³) in seawater was observed, and atmospheric concentrations of non sea-salt (nss-) sulfate (44 nmol m⁻³), methane sulfonic acid (MSA) (1.8 nmol m⁻³) and particle number in the size range of 0.1 < D < 0.5 μm (199 cm⁻³) were found to be 9, 7, and 2 times, respectively, higher than those in the background marine air. The increase in particle number concentrations mainly in the size range of 0.2 < D < 0.3 μm was likely caused by the increase of biogenic sulfate over the high productive region of the Sea of Okhotsk. In humid air conditions (R.H. > 96%), the increased biogenic sulfate that condensed the large amount of water vapor would not have sufficient solute mass to activate as cloud condensation nuclei (CNN) and would remain as aerosol particles in the marine air with frequent sea-fogs over the high productive region. Biogenic sulfate originating from dimethyl sulfide (DMS) would gradually grow into the CCN size and continuously supply a great number of CCN to the marine air in the northwestern North Pacific. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Further study of synoptic variability in Wakasa Bay, Japan     

Shin-ichiro Umatani  Noriaki Masunaga  Toshio Yamagata 《Progress in Oceanography》1986,17(3-4)

Observations of synoptic variability from CTD and current meter measurements in Wakasa Bay, Japan in summer of 1980 and 1981 are compared with the results of 1979 reported by Yamagata, Umatani, Masunaga and Matsuura (1984). It is suggested that the speed and direction of propagation can basically be explained in terms of shelf wave dynamics.In the 1980 event, a dense (colder and more saline) water advanced eastward along the north coast at about 10 km day⁻¹. The lateral scale of the phenomenon was about 30 to 40 km, in agreement with the Rossby internal radius of deformation. The T-S and current data suggest that the 1980 cold event was dominated by phase propagation. In the 1981 event, a light (warmer and less saline) water area advanced eastward at the speed similar to the 1980 cold event, but the T-S and current data suggest that Lagrangian drift of water particles associated with strong eddy motions was not negligible.  相似文献   

Interannual variability of the Kuroshio Extension and its relation to the Southern Oscillation/El Niño     

Toshio Yamagata  Yoshiaki Shibao  Shin-ichiro Umatanit 《Journal of Oceanography》1985,41(4):274-281

The interannual variability of the temperature structure of the Kuroshio Extension is studied by establishing time series for the period 1950 to 1970 and then comparing it with the time series of sea level differences across the North Equatorial Current obtained by Wyrtki (1975). First, the present analysis shows a significant correlation between the interannual fluctuation of the Kuroshio Extension and the eddy activity south of the Kuroshio axis, suggesting the importance of the eddy-driven mechanism. Secondly, spectral analysis shows close connections between the Kuroshio Extension and the North Equatorial Current with a reasonable time lag of about 1.5 years. This time lag of the mid-latitude variability is also supported by other independent data. In particular, the present preliminary study strongly suggests that the bimodal behavior of the Kuroshio path south of Japan and the intensity of the Kuroshio Countercurrent are closely connected with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño.  相似文献