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71.
Boris Kargoll Mohammad Omidalizarandi Ina Loth Jens-André Paffenholz Hamza Alkhatib 《Journal of Geodesy》2018,92(3):271-297
In this paper, we investigate a linear regression time series model of possibly outlier-afflicted observations and autocorrelated random deviations. This colored noise is represented by a covariance-stationary autoregressive (AR) process, in which the independent error components follow a scaled (Student’s) t-distribution. This error model allows for the stochastic modeling of multiple outliers and for an adaptive robust maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the unknown regression and AR coefficients, the scale parameter, and the degree of freedom of the t-distribution. This approach is meant to be an extension of known estimators, which tend to focus only on the regression model, or on the AR error model, or on normally distributed errors. For the purpose of ML estimation, we derive an expectation conditional maximization either algorithm, which leads to an easy-to-implement version of iteratively reweighted least squares. The estimation performance of the algorithm is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations for a Fourier as well as a spline model in connection with AR colored noise models of different orders and with three different sampling distributions generating the white noise components. We apply the algorithm to a vibration dataset recorded by a high-accuracy, single-axis accelerometer, focusing on the evaluation of the estimated AR colored noise model. 相似文献
72.
Landslides - The accurate prediction of landslide tsunami amplitudes has been a challenging task given large uncertainties associated with landslide parameters and often the lack of enough... 相似文献
73.
Landslides - Natural soils often exhibit an anisotropic fabric pattern as a result of soil deposition, weathering, or filling. This paper aims to investigate the effect of soil interdependent... 相似文献
74.
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Making a decision on the post-earthquake functionality of structures has always been one of the most challenging issues in earthquake engineering. There is an... 相似文献
75.
Natural Hazards - Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells affect people’s lives. This study develops a probabilistic framework to evaluate heat waves and cold spells. As... 相似文献
76.
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78.
Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
H. Zafarani S. M. M. Ghafoori M. R. Adlparvar P. Rajaeian A. Hasankhani 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):155-178
The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M f = 5.8) and 15 (M f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau. 相似文献
79.
This paper discusses a geostatistical approach to model a groundwater aquifer in 3-D. The study aims at utilizing geostatistics as a tool for characterizing zones of better-water quality in a brackish-saline aquifer. In particular, the geostatistical model was constructed to characterize the aquifer’s salinity, represented by total dissolved solids (TDS), using logs of porosity and resistivity. Quality-checked estimated TDS vertical profiles were employed to construct and model horizontal and vertical semivariograms. Parameters of semivariogram models were used to develop both the kriging plan and the generated model. Results of this modeling process are shown in the form of horizontal salinity distribution maps. The aquifer was sliced into 20 layers, each 20 m thick, to represent its overall thickness. Salinity layers maps reflect vertical stratification of TDS concentrations in the aquifer and show that water quality deteriorates with depth and toward the northern part of the aquifer. Relatively better-quality water (TDS ≤10,000 mg/l) can be found at depths between 100 and 250 m below the aquifer’s top in both eastern and southeastern parts. Water in the same interval to the western and southwestern parts reflects the presence of higher TDS concentration. From a planning point of view, it is more feasible to target the eastern part of the aquifer for pumping and desalination purposes. In addition, the generated model could be utilized as an initial condition for flow simulation. 相似文献
80.
Ghourchaei Shemshad Ghasemi-Nejad Ebrahim Vahidinia Mohammad Ashouri Alireza 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(4):2153-2168
Arabian Journal of Geosciences - In order to reconstruct sea surface water productivity and sea floor oxygenation during late Campanian-Maastrichtian, planktonic and benthic foraminiferal... 相似文献