Using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for finding the best rainfall-runoff model in mountainous watersheds(Case study: the Navrood watershed in Iran)     

Arash ADIB  Morteza LOTFIRAD  Ali HAGHIGHI 《山地科学学报》2019,(3)

In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models.  相似文献   

巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面近地层湍流强度和陆面过程特征     

郑新倩  杨帆  李超凡  潘红林  吉春容  买买提艾力&#  买买提依明  霍文  杨兴华  周成龙 《中国沙漠》2019,39(4):103-112

利用巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖流沙下垫面2013年7、10月和2014年1、4月的湍流通量资料,计算并分析了研究区近地层湍流强度,同时针对风速分量、温度、水汽和CO₂归一化标准差随稳定度的变化关系和总体输送系数等陆面过程特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）风速各分量的湍流强度均随风速的增加逐渐减小,风速处于2 m·s^-1以下时湍流发展最为旺盛。湍流强度主要由水平方向风速分量决定,垂直方向风速的作用较小,且近中性和不稳定层结利于湍流的发展。与其他地区相比,平坦且没有建筑物的沙漠地区,机械湍流较弱,湍流强度相应较小。（2）风速各分量的归一化标准差与稳定度（z/L）均满足1/3次方函数规律,其中垂直方向风速分量的拟合曲线方程较好。（3）动量输送系数C_d具有明显的夏季高、冬季低的变化状态且各月的日变化形态均呈夜间低、日间高的循环形态。热量输送系数C_h的不同月份日变化间并没有明显的排列次序,且日出日落前后具有明显的波动。不稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随风速的增加逐渐减小;稳定层结时,C_d和C_h均随着风速的增加逐渐上升。  相似文献   

塔克拉玛干荒漠-绿洲过渡带尘卷风活动特征——以肖塘为例     

马明杰  杨兴华  何清  买买提艾力&#  买买提依明  周成龙  霍文 《中国沙漠》2019,39(2):115-121

利用1992—2011年塔克拉玛干沙漠北缘荒漠-绿洲过渡带肖塘气象站的观测资料,分析了该地区尘卷风的年、月变化规律及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明:(1) 1992—2011年尘卷风发生日数总体呈波动递减趋势;尘卷风主要发生在3—9月,占全年总日数的90.9%,其中4—7月占全年总日数的70%左右。(2)尘卷风月发生日数随月平均地表与1.5 m高处温差的增大而线性增加(r=0.875,P<0.01)。(3)尘卷风月发生日数随着月平均风速的增大而幂函数增加(r=0.89,P<0.01)。(4)尘卷风月发生日数随月平均相对湿度的增大而线性减少(r=-0.869,P<0.01)。  相似文献   

Geological and geophysical studies of the Agoudal impact structure (Central High Atlas,Morocco): New evidence for crater size and age     

Houda El Kerni  Hasnaa Chennaoui Aoudjehane  David Baratoux  Mohammed Aoudjehane  Andr Charrire  Hassan Ibouh  Pierre Rochette  Yoann Quesnel  Minoru Uehara  Thomas Kenkmann  Gerwin Wulf  Michael Poelchau  Van Binh Nguyen  Maria Aboulahris  Samira Makhoukhi  Georges Aumaître  Didier Bourls  Karim Keddadouche 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(10):2483-2509

Since the discovery of shatter cones (SCs) near the village of Agoudal (Morocco, Central High Atlas Mountains) in 2013, the absence of one or several associated circular structures led to speculation about the age of the impact event, the number, and the size of the impact crater or craters. Additional constraints on the crater size, age, and erosion rates are obtained here from geological, structural, and geophysical mapping and from cosmogenic nuclide data. Our geological maps of the Agoudal impact site at the scales of 1:30,000 (6 km²) and 1:15,000 (2.25 km²) include all known occurrences of SCs in target rocks, breccias, and vertical to overturned strata. Considering that strata surrounding the impact site are subhorizontal, we argue that disturbed strata are related to the impact event. Three types of breccias have been observed. Two of them (br1‐2 and br2) could be produced by erosion–sedimentation–consolidation processes, with no evidence for impact breccias, while breccia (br1) might be impact related. The most probable center of the structure is estimated at 31°59′13.73?N, 5°30′55.14?W using the concentric deviation method applied to the orientation of strata over the disturbed area. Despite the absence of a morphological expression, the ground magnetic and electromagnetic surveys reveal anomalies spatially associated with disturbed strata and SC occurrences. The geophysical data, the structural observations, and the area of occurrence of SCs in target rocks are all consistent with an original size of 1.4–4.2 km in diameter. Cosmogenic nuclide data (³⁶Cl) constrain the local erosion rates between 220 ± 22 m Ma^?1 and 430 ± 43 m Ma^?1. These erosion rates may remove the topographic expression of such a crater and its ejecta in a time period of about 0.3–1.9 Ma. This age is older than the Agoudal iron meteorite age (105 ± 40 kyr). This new age constraint excludes the possibility of a genetic relationship between the Agoudal iron meteorite fall and the formation of the Agoudal impact site. A chronolgy chart including the Atlas orogeny, the alternation of sedimentation and erosion periods, and the meteoritic impacts is presented based on all obtained and combined data.  相似文献   

Experimental Evaluation of A New Developed Algorithm for An Autonomous Surface Vehicle and Comparison with Simulink Results     

Mousazadeh  Hossein  Kiapey  Ali 《中国海洋工程》2019,33(3):268-278

China Ocean Engineering - Performing repeatable duties automatically was the dreams of human being for centuries. Although full autonomy has long been dreamed of by visionaries, many researches...  相似文献   

Use of genetic algorithm in new approach to modeling of flood routing     

El Alaoui El Fels  Abdelhafid  Alaa  Noureddine  Bachnou  Ali 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2019,37(1):72-78

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - The hydrological models and simplified methods of Saint-venant equations are used extensively in hydrological modeling, in particular for the simulation of the...  相似文献   

Estimation of crowd density from UAVs images based on corner detection procedures and clustering analysis     

Ali Almagbile 《地球空间信息科学学报》2019,22(1):23-34

With rapid developments in platforms and sensors technology in terms of digital cameras and video recordings, crowd monitoring has taken a considerable attentions in many disciplines such as psychology, sociology, engineering, and computer vision. This is due to the fact that, monitoring of the crowd is necessary to enhance safety and controllable movements to minimize the risk particularly in highly crowded incidents (e.g. sports). One of the platforms that have been extensively employed in crowd monitoring is unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), because UAVs have the capability to acquiring fast, low costs, high-resolution and real-time images over crowd areas. In addition, geo-referenced images can also be provided through integration of on-board positioning sensors (e.g. GPS/IMU) with vision sensors (digital cameras and laser scanner). In this paper, a new testing procedure based on feature from accelerated segment test (FAST) algorithms is introduced to detect the crowd features from UAV images taken from different camera orientations and positions. The proposed test started with converting a circle of 16 pixels surrounding the center pixel into a vector and sorting it in ascending/descending order. A single pixel which takes the ranking number 9 (for FAST-9) or 12 (for FAST-12) was then compared with the center pixel. Accuracy assessment in terms of completeness and correctness was used to assess the performance of the new testing procedure before and after filtering the crowd features. The results show that the proposed algorithms are able to extract crowd features from different UAV images. Overall, the values of Completeness range from 55 to 70 % whereas the range of correctness values was 91 to 94 %.  相似文献   

Causes of rockfalls in Al-Huwayshah area, Yemen          下载免费PDF全文

Aref M. O. AL-JABALI  NIE Lei  Abdo S. AL-MAQTARY  Hussein AL-AKHALI  Mohammed HAZAEA  Fadel AL-AGHBARI 《世界地质(英文版)》2009,12(1):5-12

According to topography of Yemen, most areas and villages are located at obligated crest, toe of mountain and under cliffs. Therefore Al-Huwayshah consisting of Tawilah sandstone group is characterized by steep slope reach to 90° in some areas. This area is affected by strong tectonic movements and faults that occurred during the geological epochs. This effect enhances to find out fractures and joints as well as the rocks become brittle and ready to slide depending on the position of area. And there are some fractures and joints on the surface of the areas due to tectonic movement associated with opening the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The rainfalls, fractures, joints, earthquakes, gravity, vegetations, temperatures and human activities play a big role in the processes of rockfalls and landslides in this area. All those factors are considered as the basic causes and catalyzed factors for occurrence of rockfall in the studide area. In addition, the authors carried out laboratory test for many rock samples to get the physical properties of the rocks.  相似文献   

Implementation of baroclinic terms in a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and its application to Anzali Port, Iran     

Ali Khosh Kholgh  Peyman Badiei 《Ocean Engineering》2009,36(11):810-820

Baroclinic terms have been implemented in a three-dimensional fully hydrodynamic model developed by Badiei et al. [2008. A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic boundary fitted model for free surface flows. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 56(6), 607-627] modifying its momentum equations to account for density gradients and utilizing the scalar (salinity, temperature, etc.) conservation equation (SCE) and a state equation for the calculation of density. In the solution of advection-diffusion terms of the governing Navier-Stokes equations (NSE) and SCE, a symmetric splitting method was applied to ensure the long-term stability of simulations. Correction terms proposed by Ruddic et al. (1995) were applied to SCE to ensure the conservation of the scalar quantity. In the presence of baroclinic terms, the zero gradient pressure in the vertical direction in the vicinity of surface and bottom boundaries assumed by Badiei et al. [2008. A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic boundary fitted model for free surface flows. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 56(6), 607-627] created spurious currents. This problem was solved by assuming a hydrostatic pressure variation at those boundaries. The ability of extended model was validated by comparing its results with an experimental test case. The simulation of hydrodynamic and salt intrusion at Anzali Port located at the southern coasts of Caspian Sea in Iran was carried out by the model with both barotropic and baroclinic modes. The simulated results with baroclinic mode show a better agreement with measured data as compared to the results of barotropic mode that clearly demonstrate the significance of baroclinic terms in the simulation of cyclic intrusion of salt wedge into the Port Basin.  相似文献   

Late quaternary seismic stratigraphy and active faults of the Gulf of İzmit (NE Marmara Sea)     

Mahmut Okyar  Ali Pinar  Devrim Tezcan  Züheyr Kamaci 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2008,29(2):89-107

The Upper Quaternary seismic stratigraphy and active faults of the Gulf of İzmit were investigated by means of high-resolution shallow seismic profiling data in the source region of 1999 İzmit earthquake. High-resolution seismic reflection data correlated with borehole data indicate that the stratigraphy of İzmit Bay consists of three distinct depositional sequences formed in response to middle Pleistocene-Holocene sea-level changes. Reflector R, separating the pre-Holocene sequences (1 and 2) from the Holocene sequence (3), represents an erosional unconformity produced by the subaerial fluvial erosion of the continental shelves at the time of the last glacial maximum. Occasional, anomalous reflections (acoustic turbidity) observed within the Holocene sequence are interpreted as gas accumulations. The maximum thickness of the Holocene sediments is found to be about 25 m. The isopach map of Holocene sediment implies that the thickness of the Holocene decreases from the east towards the central and western basins of İzmit Bay. Two distinct fault systems are interpreted in İzmit Bay. The main fault system extending roughly in an E-W direction along the Gulf of İzmit is an active right lateral strike slip fault with a normal component. The secondary faults are normal faults striking in different directions and these are identified as being both active and inactive. In addition, prominent compressive features are identified in the seismic cross-sections of some profiles acquired to the east of Hersek Peninsula where the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks of the 1999 İzmit earthquake also reveal predominantly reverse faulting mechanisms, as identified by a local dense seismic network.  相似文献