Rain-fall modeling: An Application of Bayesian forecasting     

Helio S. Migon  Ana Beatriz S. Monteiro 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(2):115-127

The rainfall-runoff modeling is very useful for forecasting purposes. A good methodology for forecasting the future stream flow is a key requirement for designers and operators of water resources systems. A compromise between conceptual and classical time series modeling is applied to model the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The dynamic nonlinear model is composed of a probability distribution describing the observation, a link function relating its mean to the so called state parameters and a system of equations defining the evolution of these parameters. Its Bayesian nature permits to take into account subjective information, making forward intervention, defining monitoring schemes and introducing smoothing facilities. An application using the data of Fartura river's basin is reported. The assessment of the prior distribution is discussed and the predictive performance of the linear and the non-linear models is reported.  相似文献   

Plasma steroid levels in female flounder (Platichthys flesus) after chronic dietary exposure to single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons     

Monteiro PR  Reis-Henriques MA  Coimbra J 《Marine environmental research》2000,49(5):453-467

The chronic effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on ovary development, total hepatic lipids and plasma sex- and corticosteroid levels in female flounder (Platichthys flesus) were examined. Sexually mature feral female flounder were exposed via the diet to phenanthrene (0.5, 2.5 or 12.5 nmol/g food) or chrysene (0.4 nmol/g food) for 12 weeks, during the previtellogenic phase of the annual reproductive cycle. PAH exposure did not directly affect germ cell development since no structural and/or developmental differences were observed between control and exposed fish. On the contrary, all treatments resulted in altered plasma steroid levels. The most pronounced effect was the significant decrease in plasma 17 beta-estradiol to 19 +/- 11%, 27 +/- 7%, 63 +/- 20% and 61 +/- 12% in relation to control fish, respectively, in flounders exposed to 12.5, 2.5 or 0.5 nmol phenanthrene/g food and 0.4 nmol chrysene/g food. Impaired ovarian growth was not observed, most likely because experiments were ended before the period of vitellogenesis, even though a non-significant general decline in total hepatic lipids could be observed. Moreover, all exposed flounders, except fish fed with the highest amount of phenanthrene, showed a negative correlation between plasma 17 beta-estradiol and 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone levels (r = -0.46). One possible explanation is that PAH action may be mediated by a specific inhibition of steroidogenic enzymes. These findings provide evidence that selected PAHs are antiestrogenic xenobiotics with the capability to impair female teleost reproductive function.  相似文献   

Water quality in Sepetiba Bay,Brazil     

Copeland G  Monteiro T  Couch S  Borthwick A 《Marine environmental research》2003,55(5):385-408

Sepetiba Bay is located at 23 degrees S, 44 degrees W in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Water samples were taken at eight locations adjacent to the north shore of the Bay, near to villages and towns without sewage treatment provision. The samples were analysed and total and faecal coliform concentrations determined. A hydrodynamic model of the Bay was used together with a species dispersion model based on an adaptive quadtree mesh to predict faecal concentrations in the Bay. Effluent sources used in the model were defined using population data from census returns with flow and concentration values estimated using standard values recommended by the World Bank (WB) and the World Health Organisation (WHO). Sufficient agreement was obtained between the measured and predicted concentrations to support the use of WB and WHO summary statistics to estimate sources of sewage.  相似文献   

Influence of mesh size and tooth spacing on the proportion of damaged organisms in the catches of the Portuguese clam dredge fishery     

Gaspar  Miguel B.; Leitao  Francisco; Santos  Miguel N.; Sobral  Manuel; Chicharo  Luis; Chicharo  Alexandra; Monteiro  Carlos C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2002,59(6):1228-1236

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Post-Jurassic tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Northern Lusitanian Basin (Western Iberian margin)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Tiago M. Alves  Robert L. Gawthorpe  David W. Hunt  José H. Monteiro 《Basin Research》2003,15(2):227-249

Seismic reflection and well stratigraphic data are used to investigate the post‐Jurassic evolution of the Northern Lusitanian Basin, offshore west Iberia. Stratigraphic correlations between 11 exploration wells were attained in order to characterize the variations in depositional facies associated with salt tectonics. Latest Triassic–Hettangian salt, which generated multiple salt pillows during the Jurassic rifting, was reactivated after the early Aptian in two main phases. The first phase stretches from the late Turonian to the Maastrichtian. The second relates to Miocene tectonic inversion. The compression of the post‐salt overburden caused the amplification of Jurassic detachment folds, forming barriers to the westward progradation of sediment into distinct salt‐withdrawal sub‐basins. Particularly during the Miocene, thin‐skinned overburden shortening was accommodated by growing salt structures that suffered thrusting and extrusion. This structural style contrasts with that of salt‐scarce areas where a simple westerly tilted, fault‐bounded monocline was generated.  相似文献   

Long-term changes in fish communities of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (southern Portugal) based on two studies made 20 years apart     

Joaquim Ribeiro  Carlos C. Monteiro  Pedro Monteiro  Luis Bentes  Rui Coelho  Jorge M.S. Gonçalves  Pedro G. Lino  Karim Erzini 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

Fish communities of the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon (south Portugal) were sampled on a monthly basis with a beach seine at 4 sites, during two different time periods: 1980–1986 and 2001–2002. Community indices, species ranking and multivariate analysis were used in order to identify changes in the fish community between the two time periods. A total of 153,511 fish representing 57 taxa were recorded. Although species composition was very similar for both sampling periods, multivariate analysis performed on annual species abundance in number and weight revealed differences in fish community structure between the two periods. Structural changes in fish community were related mostly to a sharp decrease in the abundance of Mugilidae from 1980–1986 to 2001–2002. These changes were probably associated to a decrease in organic matter contents and nutrients concentrations due to improvements in sewage treatment and better water circulation inside the lagoon. The changes in fish community structure are more evident in the inner areas of the lagoon than near the inlet. The association between changes in sewage patterns and changes in the ichthyofaunal community structure reinforces the importance of fish communities as a biological indicator of human induced changes in marine systems.  相似文献   

Hydrofluoric Acid‐Free Digestion of Geological Samples for the Quantification of Rare Earth Elements by Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Optical Emission Spectrometry     

Andrey Linhares Bezerra de Oliveira  Júlio Carlos Afonso  Lilian da Silva  Arnaldo Alcover Neto  Manuel Castro Carneiro  Lílian Irene Dias da Silva  Maria Inês Couto Monteiro 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2019,43(4):689-699

Rare earth elements (REEs) are very important to technological development as well as to geochemical and environmental studies. In this work, hydrofluoric acid (HF) was replaced by condensed phosphoric acid (CPA) in the digestion of geological samples, and the quantification of REEs was performed by inductively coupled plasma‐optical emission spectrometry (ICP‐OES). Six international reference materials (RMs), named DC86318, CGL 111, CGL 124, CGL 126, OKA‐2 and COQ‐1 and three Brazilian ore samples, named Araxá, Catalão and Pitinga were analysed. Only zircon and xenotime, which are potential REE‐bearing minerals, were not completely dissolved. Nevertheless, no REE associated with zircon was detected. The investigated digestion method presented many advantages: It was relatively fast (3 h), avoided fluoride precipitation, it was less hazardous because handling diluted H₃PO₄ is safer than HF, NH₄F or NH₄HF₂ aqueous solutions, it preserved the quartz fittings of the measurement equipment and the final solution contained lower levels of total dissolved solids than those produced by the fusion method.  相似文献   

Seismic study of stellar convective regions: the base of the convective envelope in low-mass stars     

Mário J. P. F. G. Monteiro  Jørgen Christensen-Dalsgaard  Michael J. Thompson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,316(1):165-172

The possibility of observing solar-type oscillations on other stars is of great relevance to investigating the uncertain aspects of the internal structure of stars. One of these aspects is the convective overshoot that takes place at the borders of the envelopes of stars of mass similar to, or lower than, the Sun. It affects the temperature stratification, mixing, rotation and magnetic-field generation. Asteroseismology can provide an observational test for the studies of the structure of such overshoot regions.
The seismic study of the transition in the Sun, located at the base of the convection zone, has been successful in determining the characteristics of this layer in the Sun. In this work we consider the extension of the analysis to other solar-type stars (of mass between 0.85 and 1.2 M_⊙) in order to establish a method for determining the characteristics of their convective envelopes. In particular, we hope to be able to establish seismologically that a star does indeed possess a convective envelope, to measure the size of the convective region and also to constrain the properties of an overshoot layer at the bottom of the envelope. The limitations in terms of observational uncertainties and stellar characteristics, and the detectability of an overshoot layer, are discussed.  相似文献   

Comparison Between Kriging Variance and Interpolation Variance as Uncertainty Measurements in the Capanema Iron Mine, State of Minas Gerais—Brazil     

Marcelo Monteiro da Rocha  Jorge Kazuo Yamamoto 《Natural Resources Research》2000,9(3):223-235

The Capanema Mine, an iron ore deposit, is located in the central portion of the Quadrilátero Ferrífero, State of Minas Gerais, southeastern Brazil. Mine development data from approximately 7000 drillholes were used for a comparative study between kriging variance and interpolation variance as uncertainty measurements associated with ordinary kriging estimates. As known, the traditional kriging variance does not depend on local data and, therefore, does not measure the actual dispersion of data. On the other hand, the interpolation variance measures adequately the local dispersion of data used for an ordinary kriging estimate. This paper presents an application of the concept of interpolation variance for measuring uncertainties associated with ordinary kriging estimates of Fe and silica grades. These data were selected for their distinct statistical characteristics with Fe presenting a negatively skewed distribution and, consequently, a low dispersion, and silica a positively skewed distribution and, therefore, a high variability. Comparative studies between the two uncertainty measurements associated with ordinary kriging estimates of Fe and silica proved the superiority of the interpolation variance as a reliable and precise alternative to the kriging variance.  相似文献   

Plasma steroid levels in female flounder (Platichthys flesus) after chronic dietary exposure to single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons     

P. R. R. Monteiro  M. A. Reis-Henriques  J. Coimbra 《Marine environmental research》2000,49(5)

The chronic effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on ovary development, total hepatic lipids and plasma sex- and corticosteroid levels in female flounder (Platichthys flesus) were examined. Sexually mature feral female flounder were exposed via the diet to phenanthrene (0.5, 2.5 or 12.5 nmol/g food) or chrysene (0.4 nmol/g food) for 12 weeks, during the previtellogenic phase of the annual reproductive cycle. PAH exposure did not directly affect germ cell development since no structural and/or developmental differences were observed between control and exposed fish. On the contrary, all treatments resulted in altered plasma steroid levels. The most pronounced effect was the significant decrease in plasma 17β-estradiol to 19±11%, 27±7%, 63±20% and 61±12% in relation to control fish, respectively, in flounders exposed to 12.5, 2.5 or 0.5 nmol phenanthrene/g food and 0.4 nmol chrysene/g food. Impaired ovarian growth was not observed, most likely because experiments were ended before the period of vitellogenesis, even though a non-significant general decline in total hepatic lipids could be observed. Moreover, all exposed flounders, except fish fed with the highest amount of phenanthrene, showed a negative correlation between plasma 17β-estradiol and 17α-hydroxyprogesterone levels (r=−0.46). One possible explanation is that PAH action may be mediated by a specific inhibition of steroidogenic enzymes. These findings provide evidence that selected PAHs are antiestrogenic xenobiotics with the capability to impair female teleost reproductive function.  相似文献