An earthquake swarm on the Chagos—Laccadive Ridge and its tectonic implications     

Seth Stein 《Geophysical Journal International》1978,55(3):577-588

Summary. An unusual, isolated swarm of earthquakes occurred on the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge in the Central Indian Ocean between 1965 and 1970. Sixteen earthquakes were "located at approximately 6.0° S, 71.3°E on the steep west facing scarp of the Chagos Bank. This swarm forms the only major seismic activity in the period 1963–76 on the otherwise aseismic ridge. The mechanisms of the three largest earthquakes were studied using body- and surface-wave data. All are extremely similar shallow normal fault events on an east—west fault plane. Such faulting is difficult to reconcile with that expected from either the trend of the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge or the spreading direction at the nearby Central Indian Ridge. The swarm may have occurred at depth on a cross fracture remaining from the breakup of the Chagos Bank and the Mascarene Plateau and the formation of the present Central Indian Ridge.  相似文献   

Some asymptotic properties of kriging when the covariance function is misspecified     

Michael L. Stein  Mark S. Handcock 《Mathematical Geology》1989,21(2):171-190

The impact of using an incorrect covariance function on kriging predictors is investigated. Results of Stein (1988) show that the impact on the kriging predictor from not using the correct covariance function is asymptotically negligible as the number of observations increases if the covariance function used is compatible with the actual covariance function on the region of interestR. The definition and some properties of compatibility of covariance functions are given. The compatibility of generalized covariances also is defined. Compatibility supports the intuitively sensible concept that usually only the behavior near the origin of the covariance function is critical for purposes of kriging. However, the commonly used spherical covariance function is an exception: observations at a distance near the range of a spherical covariance function can have a nonnegligible effect on kriging predictors for three-dimensional processes. Finally, a comparison is made with the perturbation approach of Diamond and Armstrong (1984) and some observations of Warnes (1986) are clarified.  相似文献   

Large earthquakes kill coral reefs at the north-west Gulf of Aqaba     

Y. Shaked  A. Agnon  B. Lazar  S. Marco  U. Avner  M. Stein 《地学学报》2004,16(3):133-138

Down‐faulting at the north‐west margins of the Gulf of Aqaba is inferred to have triggered a catastrophic sedimentary event at 2.3 ka that killed the Elat fringing coral reef. Whereas segments of the Holocene reef were perfectly fossilized and preserved beneath a veneer of siliciclastic sediments, other segments were abraded, settled by nomads, and later re‐submerged under 4 m of water. Repeated damage triggered by down‐throwing earthquakes degenerate the fringing reefs of the north‐west end of the gulf. Conversely, on the north‐eastern and southern parts of the gulf, where earthquakes uplift the margins, modern reefs are thriving, attached to uplifted fossil reef terraces. Therefore, coastal subsidence moderates the development of fringing coral reefs during the late Holocene sea‐level stand still.  相似文献   

Gray swans: comparison of natural and financial hazard assessment and mitigation     

Jerome L. Stein  Seth Stein 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(3):1279-1297

Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated.  相似文献   

Granitic dimensional stones in Uruguay: evaluation and assessment of potential resources   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Manuela Morales Demarco  Pedro Oyhantçabal  Karl-Jochen Stein  Siegfried Siegesmund 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,69(4):1397-1438

In Uruguay commercial granite varieties comprise mafic rocks, granitoids, and syenitoids. There is a long tradition in Uruguay, as well as worldwide, of using dimensional stones in architecture and art, specially granitic ones. Some of the present applications of these dimensional stones are as façade cladding, countertops, and outdoor and indoor floor slabs. The color spectrum of the Uruguayan granitic dimensional stones varies from black to light gray, covering a wide variety of red and pink and minor greenish-gray. The décor of these granitic dimensional stones is mainly determined by their fabric, fundamentally the grain size and the color distribution between the different minerals that compose the rocks. In the present research the most important commercial granites were sampled to analyze their petrography and petrophysical properties. A detailed structural analysis has been performed in several deposits, as well as the application of the software 3D Block Expert for modeling the possible raw block size distribution. Other factors controlling the mining viability of the deposits were also studied (e.g., homogeneity/heterogeneity of color and décor) and the possible reserves were calculated.  相似文献   

Use of GIS for a spatial and temporal analysis of Kenyan wildlife with generalised linear modelling     

Wilson M. Khaemba  Alfred Stein 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):833-853

This paper applies generalised linear statistical techniques in a GIS to analyse wildlife data from a Kenyan wildlife reserve and its surrounding areas. Attention focuses on the spatial distribution of elephant during nine successive surveys, analysing their temporal and spatial relationship to 12 environmental covariates. A principal component analysis identifies five major determining factors, thereby reducing dimensionality in the data, while a simple spatial analysis procedure, suitable for wildlife data obtained from airborne surveys, quantfies clustering for different animal species. The number of explanatory variables appearing in abundance models is found to be subject to large variations during successive surveys with a minimum and maximum of four and eight variables, respectively. Species from highly clustered populations are found to have over 20 times more observations within short distances compared to the rest. The study concludes that a combination of generalised linear modelling and GIS gives deeper insight into the dynamics of wildlife species in and around well-defined nature reserves.  相似文献   

Spatial variability in classification accuracy of agricultural crops in the Dutch national land-cover database     

P. A. J. van Oort  A. K. Bregt  S. de Bruin  A. J. W. de Wit  A. Stein 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(6):611-626

Variability in per cell classification accuracy is predominantly modelled with land-cover class as the explanatory variable, i.e. with users' accuracies from the error matrix. Logistic regression models were developed to include other explanatory variables: heterogeneity in the 3×3 window around a cell, the size of the patch and the complexity of the landscape in which a cell is located. It was found that per cell, the probability of correct classification was significantly (α=0.05) higher for cells with a less heterogeneous neighbourhood, for cells part of larger patches and for cells in regions with a less heterogeneous landscape. To validate the models, a leave-one-out procedure was applied in which the absolute difference between the actual and the model-estimated number of cells correctly classified was summarized over 55 regions in the Netherlands. The sum of differences reduced from 60.9 to 48.1 after adding the variables ‘patch size’ and ‘landscape dominance’ to the land-cover class model. Spatial variability thus modelled therefore led to a substantial improvement in the estimation of the per cell classification accuracy.  相似文献   

An application of problem and product ontologies for the revision of beach nourishments     

D. Van de Vlag  B. Vasseur  A. Stein  R. Jeansoulin 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(10):1057-1072

An ontological approach in GIS serves as a framework for the conceptualization of processes in the real world. In this paper, we examine an application in coastal change in the Netherlands, whereby beaches are subject to artificial nourishment to offset the effect of severe erosion. The use of ontologies helps to define two scenarios: S_I determined by the regulations from the Ministry for Public Works; S_II grounded on the abilities from an existing spatial dataset. A comparison between S_I and S_II shows that 72.8% of the objects suitable and unsuitable for nourishment are correctly classified. A higher overlap is found in areas where actual beach nourishments were carried out. Inaccuracies in attributes influence the determination of the objects. A sensitivity analysis applied to altitude illustrates a significant increase of objects suitable for nourishment for both scenarios, when altitude is decreased within the lower limit of the root mean square error for the 95% confidence interval. Moreover, the sensitivity of altitude shows that artificial boundaries for beach nourishment objects are not reasonable and consequently should be treated as vague objects.  相似文献   

A less‐is‐more approach to geovisualization – enhancing knowledge construction across multidisciplinary teams     

Catherine Emma Jones  Mordechai Haklay  Sam Griffiths  Laura Vaughan 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1077-1093

The ‘less‐is‐more’ concept in interface design for computer applications has recently gained ground. In this article, the concept is adopted for a user‐centered design of geovisualization application. The premise is that using simple and clear design can lead to successful applications with improved ease of use. Over the last three decades, the development of GIS and geovisualization has seen a marked increase in the levels of interaction between the user, the system and the information. However, these enthusiastic advances in technology have not resulted in a significant increase in the number of users.

This article suggests that types of user interaction should not simply emphasize traditional GIS functions such as zooming and panning but move towards interaction based on facilitating the knowledge construction process. Considerations are made for the complexity of the system, the task at hand and the skills and limitations of the users. These elements are particularly important when maps act as the mediators in collaboration with users across disciplinary backgrounds. In such cases, the emphasis on simplicity and usability becomes as important as functionality. In these situations a geovisualization application designed for specific uses can maximize effective development of geographic knowledge.

In this article, a minimalistic design approach to geovisualization is adopted by creating a geographic profiling tool which shifts the emphasis from technological advances or interaction with the map to the interaction elements key to building the spatial knowledge of GIS experts and non‐experts alike. To evaluate this notion of ‘less‐is‐more geovisualization’ the profiling tool is evaluated according to usability matrices: efficiency, effectiveness and learnability. How well the Suburban Profiler contributes to these elements is assessed by conducting a video analysis of the types and forms of user interaction available. The video analysis demonstrates the usefulness and usability of the Suburban Profiler, providing proof of concept for ‘less‐is‐more geovisualization’.  相似文献   

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents          下载免费PDF全文

Mian Liu  Gang Luo  Hui Wang  Seth Stein 《地震科学（英文版）》2014,27(1):27-35

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.  相似文献