Disaster risk management in agriculture: tragedies of the smallholders     

Raza Ullah  Ganesh P. Shivakoti  Farhad Zulfiqar  Muhammad Nadeem Iqbal  Ashfaq Ahmad Shah 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(3):1361-1375

Agriculture sector is exposed to a variety of risks and uncertainties which can lead to sizeable losses in crop yields and alter farm incomes. Risk management is, therefore, an essential element of the overall farm management process. Farmers have number of options in managing farm risks; however, smallholders, due to their small operations and limited financial capabilities, find it difficult to adopt sophisticated risk management strategies to overcome yield and income instabilities at farm level. This study is, therefore, designed to investigate the enabling environment for small farmers to manage climatic risks at farm level. A total of 330 sampled respondents from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan are randomly selected for the study using multistage sampling technique. Analysis of variance technique is employed to compare the risk management adoption decision of small, medium and large farmers. A post hoc analysis is also performed to highlight the difference in means and the magnitude of differences. The results indicate that smallholders have significantly lower access to credit (both formal and informal), formal information sources along with significantly higher perceptions of pest and diseases. Smallholders are also at the tail end in the adoption of precautionary savings and agricultural credit to manage climatic risk at farm level. The study urges for risk management policies particularly in favor of the small farmers and intervention in the existing information and credit provision programs to facilitate smallholders in managing farm risks.  相似文献   

Delineation of three-dimensional well capture zones for complex multi-aquifer systems   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

Frind EO  Muhammad DS  Molson JW 《Ground water》2002,40(6):586-598

The delineation of well capture zones is a basic component of ground water protection. The conventional methodology for capture zone delineation is backward advective particle tracking, often applied under the assumption of a two-dimensional aquifer. The suitability of the conventional approach for complex heterogeneous multi-aquifer systems was investigated, using the Waterloo Moraine aquifer system as an example. It was found that the conventional approach produces irregular particle tracks that require judgment to interpret in a meaningful way, and it can raise questions that may affect the credibility of the capture zone delineation. As an alternative, the potentially powerful but little-used backward-in-time advective-dispersive transport approach was investigated. A key advantage of this approach is its capability to represent local heterogeneities through the dispersion term. The dispersion process has a natural smoothing effect that results in unambiguous capture zones without the need for interpretation, thus enhancing credibility. The question of capture zone validation is also addressed. The meaning of a three-dimensional capture zone is considered, and it is shown that a fully three-dimensional representation of the system is crucial for valid results. The distinction between the maximum extent capture zone and the surface capture zone is also explained. In the case of complex heterogeneous systems, advective particle tracking can be used as an initial screening tool, whereas the more realistic backward-transport modeling approach can be used for final capture-zone delineation.  相似文献   

September 2004 Flood Event in Southwestern Bangladesh: A Study of its Nature,Causes, and Human Perception and Adjustments to a New Hazard     

Abu Muhammad Shajaat Ali 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(1):89-111

This paper examines the nature and causes of September 2004 hazardous flood that affected the dry and drought prone southwestern region of Bangladesh. It also examines human perception of this new hazard and their methods of adjustments to its negative impacts. Field research for this study includes personal interviews of 453 victim families living in four thanas (lowest administrative units) in Jessore and Satkhira districts of southwestern Bangladesh. Findings of the study suggest that all victim respondents viewed this flood event as a natural hazard, which has caused severe damage to standing crops, fish ponds, permanent trees and homesteads, and deteriorated human health and sanitation conditions. Its long-term impacts on fish farming, soil quality degradation, as well as changing land use/land coverage are also noteworthy but yet to be adequately explored. Both perceived and scientific causes of this flood event include high rainfall for a week before the flood, unusual movement of low pressure system into the affected area, cloudy weather and low evaporation, siltation of the regional riverbeds, and rolling back of the Ganges River water through the Ichamati and Bhagirati rivers. These factors also caused hazardous flooding at the same time in the Ichamati and Bhagirati Rivers and their floodplains in the West Bengal province of India. To release the overflow of flood water inside India, the Indian border patrol breached the Ichamati river embankment in several places along Satkhira and Jessore international border which had aggravated the flood situation in the study area.  相似文献   

Electrostatic solitons in rotating dusty plasmas with anisotropic ion pressure     

Muhammad Adnan  S. Mahmood  Anisa Qamar 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,341(2):551-558

The Zakharov-Kuznetsov (ZK) equation is derived for electrostatic wave in a rotating magnetoplasma with anisotropic ion pressure and in the presence of stationary charged dust particles. The anisotropic ion pressure is defined using double adiabatic Chew-Golberger-Low (CGL) theory. The reductive perturbation method is employed to study the dynamics of obliquely propagating low frequency ion acoustic wave with adiabatic ions. It is found that the ion pressure anisotropy, polarity, density of the dust particles and rotational frequency have significant effects on the formation nonlinear structures in rotating magnetized dusty plasmas. The numerical results are also presented for illustration.  相似文献   

Prediction of future situation of land use/cover change and modeling sensitivity to pollution in Edku Lake,Egypt based on geospatial analyses     

Abd El-Hamid  Hazem T.  El-Alfy  Muhammad A.  Elnaggar  Abdelhamid A. 《GeoJournal》2021,86(4):1895-1913

GeoJournal - Assessing land use/cover (LULC) change in coastal lakes is an essential process for sustainable development. Edku Lake is one of the most important lakes in the northern part of Nile...  相似文献   

Land suitability analysis for maize production in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and GIS-based multicriteria decision support system     

Habibie  Muhammad Iqbal  Noguchi  Ryozo  Shusuke  Matsushita  Ahamed  Tofael 《GeoJournal》2021,86(2):777-807

GeoJournal - Maize is one of the potential crops can help in regional food production with self-sufficiency of foods in the drought prone areas of East Java in Indonesia. The purpose of this...  相似文献   

Investigating the flood damages in Lower Indus Basin since 2000: Spatiotemporal analyses of the major flood events     

Atif  Salman  Umar  Muhammad  Ullah  Fahim 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(2):2357-2383

While historically significant for ancient civilizations, the Indus basin is also known for its floods and complex anthropogenic management history. Resulting from years of modifications by the pre-British era Mughal rulers followed by the post-partition division of river waters among the two neighbors, India and Pakistan, Pakistan faces severe management and financial challenges of water management. This study investigates the intricacies arising from this complicated management doctrine for the lower Indus basin. A detailed remote sensing-based analysis of the significant floods to hit the lower Indus basin since 2000 has been provided. Flood years were identified, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the years 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2016 were used to map their spatiotemporal extents. Almost all the flood water accumulated in the north is released in one river channel of the lower Indus basin. Further, the challenges were exacerbated due to the excessive rainfall in 2011 and 2012 in southeastern Sindh. A trend analysis of rainfall data shows an increase in the southern basin in the last 21 years, particularly toward the central plains and Sindh Province. The floodwater accumulated in the lower basin for as many as?~?425 days on average, stretching to?~?800 days of stagnancy in some places. The water stagnation period has been the highest in the river floodplain, highly populated and cultivated. The analyses of the current study suggest that the riverine channel has been better managed after the 2010 floods; however, the monsoon’s shift in 2011 and 2012 led to widespread disaster in low-lying regions of Sindh Province.

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Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan     

Muhammad Waseem  Carlo Giovanni Lai  Enrico Spacone 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(2):563-600

This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region.  相似文献   

A Paleogeographic and Depositional Model for the Neogene Fluvial Succession,Pishin Belt,Northwest Pakistan: Effect of Post Collisional Tectonics on Sedimentation in a Peripheral Foreland Setting     

Aimal K. KASI  Akhtar M. KASSI  Muhammad UMAR  Henrik FRIIS  Mohibullah MOHIBULLAH  Razzaq A. MANAN 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(2):499-518

Detailed facies analysis of the Neogene successions of the Pishin Belt (Katawaz Basin) has enabled documentation of successive depositional systems and paleogeographic settings of the basin formed by the collision of the northwestern continental margin of the Indian Plate and the Afghan Block. During the Early Miocene, subaerial sedimentation started after the final closure of the Katawaz Remnant Ocean. Based on detailed field data, twelve facies were recognized in Neogene successions exposed in the Pishin Belt. These facies were further organized into four facies associations i.e. channels, crevasse splay, natural levee and floodplain facies associations. Facies associations and variations provided ample evidence to recognize a number of fluvial architectural components in the succession e.g., low‐sinuosity sandy braided river, mixed‐load meandering, high‐sinuosity meandering channels, single‐story sandstone and/or conglomerate channels, lateral accretion surfaces (point bars) and alluvial fans. Neogene sedimentation in the Pishin Belt was mainly controlled by active tectonism and thrusting in response to the oblique collision of the Indian Plate with the Afghan Block of the Eurasian Plate along the Chaman‐Nushki Fault. Post Miocene deformation of these formations successively caused them to contribute as an additional source terrain for the younger formations.  相似文献   

Rock Mass Characterization and Support Assessment along Power Tunnel of Hydropower in Kohistan Area,KPK, Pakistan     

Mian Sohail Akram  Muhammad Zeeshan 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2018,91(2):221-226

This paper encompasses the engineering geological properties of rock mass along the power tunnel of hydropower in Kohistan, Khayber Pakhtun Khawa (KPK), Pakistan. The major geological units of the study area are Chilas complex (CC) and Gilgit complex (GC) that consists mostly of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Discontinuity surveys were conducted to classify the rock mass by utilizing rock mass rating (RMR) and tunneling quality index (Q) classification systems. RMR system involves collection of data for parameters of rock strength, RQD, spacing of discontinuities, condition of discontinuities, groundwater condition and Q system involves rock quality designation (RQD), joint roughness (J_r), joint sets (J_s), joint alteration (J_a), stress reduction factor (SRF) and joint water reduction (J_w). RMR values ranges from 46 to 66 (fair to good) for rock unit of Chilas complex (CC) and 50 to 58 (fair) for rock unit of Gilgit complex (GC). The evaluated values of tunnel quality by Q-system are 1.55 to 6.4 (poor to fair) for Chilas complex (CC) and 1.35 to 1.84 (poor) for Gilgit complex (GC). The required support along the tunnel route is also estimated by both classification systems. Unwedge program is used to analyze the unstable zones due to the intersection of different joint sets. Total 14 cases are analyzed in Unwedge from which 3 cases have failure potential with FOS less than 1. These failure potential blocks can become stable by applying further support of rock bolting and shotcrete layer.  相似文献