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951.
Carracedo P Torres-López S Barreiro M Montero P Balseiro CF Penabad E Leitao PC Pérez-Muñuzuri V 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,53(5-7):350-360
An integrated system named METEOMOHID, developed by MeteoGalicia in the first stage of the Prestige accident in November 2002 was used successfully in an operational form to support decision making and assist in recovering tasks. Afterwards, METEOMOHID has been enhanced with the aim of developing an operational oceanography system to be used in the NW of the Iberian Peninsula. The METEOMOHID system includes local area hydrodynamic coastal ocean modelling (MOHID), real time atmospheric forcing from a local meteorological model (ARPS). Using the available data from the Prestige crisis, a set of simulations were designed in order to reproduce the oil spill drift. The implementation of a detailed vertical resolution in the model has allowed obtaining a detailed surface dynamic, improving our knowledge of the behaviour of tarballs into the water column. Thus, the wind-driven Eckman drift, the direct dragging of the wind were detached, and the possible existence of subsurface oil was assessed. In addition, the present work evaluates the effects of introducing climatologic large scale currents in the METEOMOHID system. 相似文献
952.
Els Hannes Diana Kusumastuti Maikel León Espinosa Davy Janssens Koen Vanhoof Geert Wets 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2012,14(2):143-165
In this paper, the “mental map” concept is positioned with regard to individual travel behaviour to start with. Based on Ogden and Richards’ triangle of
meaning (The meaning of meaning: a study of the influence of language upon thought and of the science of symbolism. International
library of psychology, philosophy and scientific method. Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1966) distinct thoughts, referents and symbols originating from different scientific disciplines are identified and explained
in order to clear up the notion’s fuzziness. Next, the use of this concept in two major areas of research relevant to travel
demand modelling is indicated and discussed in detail: spatial cognition and decision-making. The relevance of these constructs
to understand and model individual travel behaviour is explained and current research efforts to implement these concepts
in travel demand models are addressed. Furthermore, these mental map notions are specified in two types of computational models,
i.e. a Bayesian Inference Network (BIN) and a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). Both models are explained, and a numerical and a
real-life example are provided. Both approaches yield a detailed quantitative representation of the mental map of decision-making
problems in travel behaviour. 相似文献
953.
AGUIRRE-SALADO Carlos Arturo TREVIO-GARZA Eduardo Javier AGUIRRE-CALDERóN Oscar Alberto JIMéNEZ-PéREZ Javier GONZáLEZ-TAGLE Marco Aurelio VALDEZ-LAZALDE José René MIRANDA-ARAGóN Liliana AGUIRRE-SALADO Alejandro Iván 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(4):669-680
Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**). 相似文献
954.
Radovan Pipík Anne-Marie Bodergat Danielle Briot Michal Ková? Ján Král’ Grzegorz Zielinski 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(2):233-249
The Turiec Basin (TB) of Slovakia formed in the Miocene when the West Carpathians escaped from the Alpine region. The 1,250-m-thick
sedimentary Neogene fill of the basin preserved fossil leaves as well as endemic bivalves, gastropods, and ostracodes. The
paleolimnologic changes recorded in the TB infill were derived from the most abundant fossils, the ostracodes. Five contemporaneous
ostracode assemblages within the Late Miocene lacustrine system were distinguished through statistical analysis. These assemblages
have low species similarity, between 2.1 and 24.1%, and are recognized by shape differences among the Candoninae. The ostracode
assemblages, mollusca fossils, and Sr-isotope ratios suggest a low-salinity environment at the beginning of the Late Miocene,
during a brief connection with the Central Paratethys. When the connection ceased, the basin became an isolated freshwater
lake, with five zones differentiated ecologically and bathymetrically using the ostracode assemblages. Taxonomic comparison
of the faunas of the TB and the freshwater to brackish Neogene basins of Europe demonstrates the endemic character of the
TB ostracode fauna. The biologic characteristics of the ostracode families, along with the geology of the lake basin, suggest
that the longevity of the Late Miocene lake probably exceeded 1 Ma. 相似文献
955.
Gabriella Sch?ll-Barna Attila Demény Gábor Serlegi Szilvia Fábián Pál Sümegi István Fórizs Bernadett Bajnóczi 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2012,47(1):87-100
Geochemical records of bivalve shells have been increasingly studied in the last decade to obtain information on climate conditions.
In this paper we present stable isotope compositions of living and prehistoric shells of freshwater mussels (Unionidae) and
their relationships with climate conditions in a shallow lake environment of Lake Balaton, West-Central Hungary. Physical
conditions and stable oxygen isotope compositions of lake water samples were monitored where living bivalves were collected.
Comparisons between seasonal variations in ambient temperature, water composition and within-shell isotopic variations indicate
that the shells of Unio pictorum do reflect local changes at high resolution and thus can be used to study past conditions. Additionally, shells covering
the last two decades were gathered at several locations along the lake in order to determine spatial and temporal variations
in the shells’ isotopic compositions as a function of weather conditions. As an application, prehistoric shells collected
in archaeological excavations were analysed in order to study past environmental variations. Climate variations during the
Late Copper Age (5460–4870 cal. yr BP) have been assumed on the basis of geomorphological and archaeozoological observations
at the site Balatonkeresztúr-Réti-dűlő (south of Lake Balaton), that suggested increasing humidity as a cause of changes in
settlement location and domestic livestock husbandry. Stable carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of prehistoric bivalve
shells were analyzed from excavations representing five archaeological subphases (Boleráz subphase, 5460–5310 cal. yr BP;
two transitional subphases around 5310 cal. yr BP; Early Classic subphase, 5310–5060 cal. yr BP; Late Classic subphase, 5040–4870 cal.
yr BP). The analyses revealed significant negative C and O isotope shifts in the transitional subphases relative to the earlier
and later subphases. The isotopic variations indicate that the local climate became relatively wet and possibly cold around
5310 cal. yr BP, then it returned to drier (and likely warmer) conditions during the Classic subphases. This interpretation
is in agreement with previous studies on climate changes related to the “5.3 ky event” in the European continental area and
the North Atlantic Region, indicating an Atlantic influence in the Carpathian Basin. 相似文献
956.
Federico M. Dávila Mario E. Giménez Julieta C. Nóbile M. Patricia Martínez 《Basin Research》2012,24(6):615-636
The Pipanaco Basin, in the southern margin of the Andean Puna plateau at ca. 28°SL, is one of the largest and highest intermontane basins within the northernmost Argentine broken foreland. With a surface elevation >1000 m above sea level, this basin represents a strategic location to understand the subsidence and subsequent uplift history of high‐elevation depositional surfaces within the distal Andean foreland. However, the stratigraphic record of the Pipanaco Basin is almost entirely within the subsurface, and no geophysical surveys have been conducted in the region. A high‐resolution gravity study has been designed to understand the subsurface basin geometry. This study, together with stratigraphic correlations and flexural and backstripping analysis, suggests that the region was dominated by a regional subsidence episode of ca. 2 km during the Miocene‐Pliocene, followed by basement thrusting and ca. 1–1.5 km of sediment filling within restricted intermontane basin between the Pliocene‐Pleistocene. Based on the present‐day position of the basement top as well as the Neogene‐Present sediment thicknesses across the Sierras Pampeanas, which show slight variations along strike, sediment aggradation is not the most suitable process to account for the increase in the topographic level of the high‐elevation, close‐drainage basins of Argentina. The close correlation between the depth to basement and the mean surface elevations recorded in different swaths indicates that deep‐seated geodynamic process affected the northern Sierras Pampeanas. Seismic tomography, as well as a preliminary comparison between the isostatic and seismic Moho, suggests a buoyant lithosphere beneath the northern Sierras Pampeanas, which might have driven the long‐wavelength rise of this part of the broken foreland after the major phase of deposition in these Andean basins. 相似文献
957.
Francisco Estrada Benjamín Martínez-López Cecilia Conde Carlos Gay-García 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):1029-1046
This paper presents a review of the methodology applied for generating the regional climate change scenarios utilized in important National Documents of Mexico, such as the Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Fourth National Report to the Convention on Biological Diversity and The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico. It is shown that these regional climate change scenarios, which are one of the main inputs to support the assessments presented in these documents, are an example of the erroneous use of statistical downscaling techniques. The arguments presented here imply that the work based on such scenarios should be revised and therefore, these documents are inadequate for supporting national decision- making. 相似文献
958.
Cesar Villanoy Laura David Olivia Cabrera Michael Atrigenio Fernando Siringan Porfirio Aliño Maya Villaluz 《Climatic change》2012,112(2):493-505
Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves are widely recognized to provide protection against
the devastating effects of strong waves associated with tsunamis and storms. The predicted warming climate brings to fore
the role of these ecosystems in providing protection against stronger typhoons that can result in more devastating waves of
greater amplitude. We performed a model simulation of storm generated waves on a Philippine reef, which is located along the
path of tropical storms, i.e., at least 10 typhoons on the average pass through the study site yearly. A model to simulate
wave propagation was developed using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and DELFT3D-WAVE computer simulation software. Scenarios
involving local monsoonal wind forcing and storm conditions were simulated. In addition, as climate change may also result
to increased relative sea level, a 0.3 m and 1 m rise in sea level scenarios were also used in the wave model simulations.
Results showed that the extensive reef system in the site helped dissipate wave energy that in turn reduced wave run-up on
land. A significant reduction in wave energy was observed in both climate change, i.e., stronger wind and higher sea level,
and non-climate change scenarios. This present study was conducted in a reef whose coral cover is in excellent condition (i.e.,
50 to 80% coral cover). Estimates of coral reef growth are in the same order of magnitude as estimates of relative sea level
rise based on tide gauge and satellite altimeter data, thus it is possible that the role of reefs in attenuating wave energy
may be maintained if coral reef growth can keep up with the change in sea level. Nonetheless, to maintain reef growth, it
is imperative to manage coral reef ecosystems sustainably and to eliminate the stressors that are within human control. Minimizing
activities such as illegal and destructive blast and poison fishing methods, pollution and siltation, is crucial to minimize
the impacts of high-energy waves that may increase with climate change. 相似文献
959.
Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks. 相似文献
960.
Assessment of global warming on the island of Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). Trends in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures since 1944 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Temperature variation is studied at different altitudes and orientation on the island of Tenerife, according to the trends in the mean, maximum and minimum at 21 meteorological stations. Reference series are obtained by sectors, along with a representative overall series for Tenerife, in which temperature shows a statistically significant growth trend of 0.09?±?0.04°C/decade since 1944. Night-time temperatures have risen most (0.17°C?±?0.04°C/decade), while by day they have been more stable. Consequently, the diurnal temperature range between day and night has narrowed. By regions, warming has been much more intense in the high mountains than the other sectors below the inversion layer between 600 and 1,400?m altitude, and progressively milder towards the coast. The temperature rise on the windward (north-northeast) slopes is greater than on the leeward side and could be related to the increase in cloudiness on the northern side. The general warming of the island is less than in continental areas at between 24 and 44oN, being closer to the sea surface temperature in the same area. This is probably explained largely by the insular conditions. In fact warming is more evident in the high mountains (0.14?±?0.07°C/decade), where the tempering effect of the ocean and the impact of changes in the stratocumulus is weaker, being similar to the mean continental values in the northern hemisphere. 相似文献