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101.
Kayje Booker Lynn Huntsinger James W. Bartolome Nathan F. Sayre William Stewart 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):240-251
Scientific interest in carbon sequestration on rangelands is largely driven by their extent, while the interest of ranchers in the United States centers on opportunities to enhance revenue streams. Rangelands cover approximately 30% of the earth's ice-free land surface and hold an equivalent amount of the world's terrestrial carbon. Rangelands are grasslands, shrublands, and savannas and cover 312 million hectares in the United States. On the arid and semi-arid sites typical of rangelands annual fluxes are small and unpredictable over time and space, varying primarily with precipitation, but also with soils and vegetation. There is broad scientific consensus that non-equilibrium ecological models better explain the dynamics of such rangelands than equilibrium models, yet current and proposed carbon sequestration policies and associated grazing management recommendations in the United States often do not incorporate this developing scientific understanding of rangeland dynamics. Carbon uptake on arid and semi-arid rangelands is most often controlled by abiotic factors not easily changed by management of grazing or vegetation. Additionality may be impossible to achieve consistently through management on rangelands near the more xeric end of a rangeland climatic gradient. This point is illustrated by a preliminary examination of efforts to develop voluntary cap and trade markets for carbon credits in the United States, and options including payment for ecosystem services or avoided conversion, and carbon taxation. A preliminary analysis focusing on cap and trade and payment for avoided conversion or ecosystem services illustrates the misalignment between policies targeting vegetation management for enhanced carbon uptake and non-equilibrium carbon dynamics on arid United States rangelands. It is possible that current proposed carbon policy as exemplified by carbon credit exchange or offsets will result in a net increase in emissions, as well as investment in failed management. Rather than focusing on annual fluxes, policy and management initiatives should seek long-term protection of rangelands and rangeland soils to conserve carbon, and a broader range of environmental and social benefits. 相似文献
102.
D. F. Webb M. M. Bisi C. A. de Koning C. J. Farrugia B. V. Jackson L. K. Jian N. Lugaz K. Marubashi C. Möstl E. P. Romashets B. E. Wood H.-S. Yu 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4173-4208
A distinct magnetic cloud (MC) was observed in-situ at the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO)-B on 20?–?21 January 2010. About three days earlier, on 17 January, a bright flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) were clearly observed by STEREO-B, which suggests that this was the progenitor of the MC. However, the in-situ speed of the event, several earlier weaker events, heliospheric imaging, and a longitude mismatch with the STEREO-B spacecraft made this interpretation unlikely. We searched for other possible solar eruptions that could have caused the MC and found a faint filament eruption and the associated CME on 14?–?15 January as the likely solar source event. We were able to confirm this source by using coronal imaging from the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/EUVI and COR and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph (LASCO) telescopes and heliospheric imaging from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) and the STEREO/Heliospheric Imager instruments. We use several empirical models to understand the three-dimensional geometry and propagation of the CME, analyze the in-situ characteristics of the associated ICME, and investigate the characteristics of the MC by comparing four independent flux-rope model fits with the launch observations and magnetic-field orientations. The geometry and orientations of the CME from the heliospheric-density reconstructions and the in-situ modeling are remarkably consistent. Lastly, this event demonstrates that a careful analysis of all aspects of the development and evolution of a CME is necessary to correctly identify the solar counterpart of an ICME/MC. 相似文献
103.
104.
D. W.Kurtz S. D.Kawaler R. L.Riddle M. D.Reed † M. S.Cunha M.Wood N.Silvestri T. K.Watson N.Dolez P.Moskalik S.Zola E.Pallier J. A.Guzik T. S.Metcalfe A. S.Mukadam R. E.Nather D. E.Winget D. J.Sullivan T.Sullivan K.Sekiguchi X.Jiang R.Shobbrook B. N.Ashoka S.Seetha S.Joshi D.O'Donoghue G.Handler M.Mueller J. M.Gonzalez Perez J.-E.Solheim F.Johannessen A.Ulla S. O.Kepler A.Kanaan A.da Costa L.Fraga O.Giovannini J. M.Matthews 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,330(3):57-61
HR 1217 is a prototypical rapidly oscillating Ap star that has presented a test to the theory of non-radial stellar pulsation. Prior observations showed a clear pattern of five modes with alternating frequency spacings of 33.3 and 34.6 μHz, with a sixth mode at a problematic spacing of 50.0 μHz (which equals 1.5×33.3 μHz) to the high-frequency side. Asymptotic pulsation theory allowed for a frequency spacing of 34 μHz, but Hipparcos observations rule out such a spacing. Theoretical calculations of magnetoacoustic modes in Ap stars by Cunha predicted that there should be a previously undetected mode 34 μHz higher than the main group, with a smaller spacing between it and the highest one. In this Letter, we present preliminary results from a multisite photometric campaign on the rapidly oscillating Ap star HR 1217 using the 'Whole Earth Telescope'. While a complete analysis of the data will appear in a later paper, one outstanding result from this run is the discovery of a newly detected frequency in the pulsation spectrum of this star, at the frequency predicted by Cunha. 相似文献
105.
106.
107.
Eric F. Wood 《Advances in water resources》1978,1(5):299-305
Bayesian Inference and Decision Theory tools are applied to the problem of synthetic hydrology when model and parameter uncertainty exist. Issues such as optimal parameter estimation, use of synthetic generation in design problems, and the effects of parameter uncertainty on statistical estimation are discussed and applied to the problem of reservoir slorage-yield analysis. 相似文献
108.
Kristie?L.?EbiEmail author Jessica?Hartman Nathan?Chan John?Mcconnell Michael?Schlesinger John?Weyant 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):375-393
Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts
to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA
model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100.
The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and
precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human
population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while
the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse
gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used
within or across other African countries. 相似文献
109.
Although there is a large number of constitutive models for sand available in the literature it is believed that a fresh approach, striking a balance between complexity and theoretical rigour, is desirable. The approach here has certain conceptual links with the Cam Clay series of elastic–plastic models, but includes the more general starting assumption that the yield function, plastic potential and failure locus should be given quite distinct mathematical expressions. Possible physical bases for the proposed forms are discussed. Ways in which the parameters required to define the model may be determined are suggested and the use of the model is then demonstrated. Firstly, it is shown that, where a limited set of experimental data is available, the model is flexible enough to be able to match the test results. Secondly, it is shown that, where a wide range of test results has been produced, it is possible to determine the model constitutive parameters from a small number of tests and proceed to make satisfactory predictionsfor other, quite different, types of test. The model is developed for sand at a single initial density, but the way in which the constitutive parameters might be expected to vary with density is discussed. The model is described for conditions of triaxial compression, and extension to more general stress states will be needed before it can be put to the test of incorporation in, for example, a finite element program. 相似文献
110.
Moon: Origin and evolution of multi-ring basins 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper summarizes current data and new observations on lunar basin systems. Parts 1–4 review earlier literature and give new crater-counts used to reconstruct basin histories. Among the results are: basin rings are defined by faults, hills, craters, and/or wrinkle ridges; all of these are inter-related; 2 plays a special role in the ratios of ring diameters; flooding occurred in many basins prior to the formation of the familiar front-side maria; 3 km is a typical depth of lava flooding in basins. Parts 5–11 interpret these results in terms of origin and evolution of basins. Polar concentrations of basins and old, large craters are found (Figures 28 and 29). Basins originated by impacts of very early planetesimals left over from or created during formation of the Moon (6). Concentric fractures were produced by the impacts. Concentric rings developed along fractures during subsequent sagging of the basin into partially melted substrata, along the lines of theory and experiments by Lance and Onat (1962) (Figures 36 and 37). There is marginal empirical evidence that some rings formed significantly after their basins (8). The structure of specific rings depended on the nature of volcanic products extruded. Wrinkle ridges, peak-rings, rings of craters, concentric graben, and central peaks are all consequences of basin-forming evolutionary processes (9, Figure 41), Flooding by lava was a final stage in basin evolution. Lava extruded from concentric ring-faults, wrinkle ridges, and crater and basin rims (10). Mascons are directly correlated with the amount of mare lava, but not correlated with basin age or morphology (11). Section 12 summarizes the results and compares them to those of other authors. 相似文献