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Bayesian Inference and Decision Theory tools are applied to the problem of synthetic hydrology when model and parameter uncertainty exist. Issues such as optimal parameter estimation, use of synthetic generation in design problems, and the effects of parameter uncertainty on statistical estimation are discussed and applied to the problem of reservoir slorage-yield analysis.  相似文献   
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Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.  相似文献   
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Although there is a large number of constitutive models for sand available in the literature it is believed that a fresh approach, striking a balance between complexity and theoretical rigour, is desirable. The approach here has certain conceptual links with the Cam Clay series of elastic–plastic models, but includes the more general starting assumption that the yield function, plastic potential and failure locus should be given quite distinct mathematical expressions. Possible physical bases for the proposed forms are discussed. Ways in which the parameters required to define the model may be determined are suggested and the use of the model is then demonstrated. Firstly, it is shown that, where a limited set of experimental data is available, the model is flexible enough to be able to match the test results. Secondly, it is shown that, where a wide range of test results has been produced, it is possible to determine the model constitutive parameters from a small number of tests and proceed to make satisfactory predictionsfor other, quite different, types of test. The model is developed for sand at a single initial density, but the way in which the constitutive parameters might be expected to vary with density is discussed. The model is described for conditions of triaxial compression, and extension to more general stress states will be needed before it can be put to the test of incorporation in, for example, a finite element program.  相似文献   
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Moon: Origin and evolution of multi-ring basins   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
This paper summarizes current data and new observations on lunar basin systems. Parts 1–4 review earlier literature and give new crater-counts used to reconstruct basin histories. Among the results are: basin rings are defined by faults, hills, craters, and/or wrinkle ridges; all of these are inter-related; 2 plays a special role in the ratios of ring diameters; flooding occurred in many basins prior to the formation of the familiar front-side maria; 3 km is a typical depth of lava flooding in basins. Parts 5–11 interpret these results in terms of origin and evolution of basins. Polar concentrations of basins and old, large craters are found (Figures 28 and 29). Basins originated by impacts of very early planetesimals left over from or created during formation of the Moon (6). Concentric fractures were produced by the impacts. Concentric rings developed along fractures during subsequent sagging of the basin into partially melted substrata, along the lines of theory and experiments by Lance and Onat (1962) (Figures 36 and 37). There is marginal empirical evidence that some rings formed significantly after their basins (8). The structure of specific rings depended on the nature of volcanic products extruded. Wrinkle ridges, peak-rings, rings of craters, concentric graben, and central peaks are all consequences of basin-forming evolutionary processes (9, Figure 41), Flooding by lava was a final stage in basin evolution. Lava extruded from concentric ring-faults, wrinkle ridges, and crater and basin rims (10). Mascons are directly correlated with the amount of mare lava, but not correlated with basin age or morphology (11). Section 12 summarizes the results and compares them to those of other authors.  相似文献   
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We examine hypotheses for the formation of light-toned layered deposits in Juventae Chasma using a combination of data from Mars Global Surveyor's Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Odyssey's Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS). We divide Juventae Chasma into geomorphic units of (i) chasm wall rock, (ii) heavily cratered hummocky terrain, (iii) a mobile and largely crater-free sand sheet on the chasm floor, (iv) light-toned layered outcrop (LLO) material, and (v) chaotic terrain. Using surface temperatures derived from THEMIS infrared data and slopes from MOLA, we derive maps of thermal inertia, which are consistent with the geomorphic units that we identify. LLO thermal inertias range from ∼400 to 850 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2. Light-toned layered outcrops are distributed over a remarkably wide elevation range () from the chasm floor to the adjacent plateau surface. Geomorphic features, the absence of small craters, and high thermal inertia show that the LLOs are composed of sedimentary rock that is eroding relatively rapidly in the present epoch. We also present evidence for exhumation of LLO material from the west wall of the chasm, within chaotic and hummocky terrains, and within a small depression in the adjacent plateau. The data imply that at least some of the LLO material was deposited long before the adjacent Hesperian plateau basalts, and that Juventae Chasma underwent, and may still be undergoing, enlargement along its west wall due to wall rock collapse, chaotic terrain evolution, and exposure and removal of LLO material. The new data allow us to reassess possible origins of the LLOs. Gypsum, one of the minerals reported elsewhere as found in Juventae Chasma LLO material, forms only at low temperatures () and thus excludes a volcanic origin. Instead, the data are consistent with either multiple occurrences of lacustrine or airfall deposition over an extended period of time prior to emplacement of Hesperian lava flows on the plateau above the chasm.  相似文献   
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Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.  相似文献   
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