Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Katharine Haynes  Jenni Barclay  Nick Pidgeon 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,70(2):123-138

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

Katharine HaynesEmail:

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Temporal and geochemical evolution of the Cenozoic intraplate volcanism of Zealandia     

Christian Timm  Kaj Hoernle  Reinhard Werner  Folkmar Hauff  Paul van den Bogaard  James White  Nick Mortimer  Dieter Garbe-Schönberg 《Earth》2010,98(1-2):38-64

In order to constrain better the distribution, age, geochemistry and origin of widespread Cenozoic intraplate volcanism on Zealandia, the New Zealand micro-continent, we report new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and geochemical (major and trace element and Sr–Nd–Hf–Pb isotope) data from offshore (Chatham Rise, Campbell and Challenger Plateaus) and onland (North, South, Auckland, Campbell, Chatham and Antipodes Islands of New Zealand) volcanism on Zealandia. The samples include nephelinite, basanite through phonolite, alkali basalt through trachyte/rhyolite, and minor tholeiite and basaltic andesite, all of which have ocean island basalt (OIB)-type trace element signatures and which range in age from 64.8 to 0.17 Ma. Isotope ratios show a wide range in composition (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7027–0.7050, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.5128–0.5131, ¹⁷⁷Hf/¹⁷⁶Hf = 0.2829–0.2831, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.62–20.67, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.54–15.72 and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.27–40.34) with samples plotting between mid-ocean-ridge basalts (MORB) and Cretaceous New Zealand intraplate volcanic rocks.Major characteristics of Zealandia's Cenozoic volcanism include longevity, irregular distribution and lack of age progressions in the direction of plate motion, or indeed any systematic temporal or spatial geochemical variations. We believe that these characteristics can be best explained in the context of lithospheric detachment, which causes upwelling and melting of the upper asthenospheric mantle and portions of the removed lithosphere. We propose that a large-scale seismic low-velocity anomaly, that stretches from beneath West Antarctica to Zealandia at a depth of > 600 km may represent a geochemical reservoir that has been in existence since the Cretaceous, and has been supplying the upper mantle beneath Zealandia with HIMU-type plume material throughout the Cenozoic. In addition, the sources of the Cenozoic intraplate volcanism may be at least partially derived through melting of locally detached Zealandia lower lithosphere.  相似文献   

A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm for rapid quantification of geologic uncertainty     

Faruk O. Alpak  Mark D. Barton  Jef Caers 《Computational Geosciences》2010,14(4):603-621

Geologic uncertainties and limited well data often render recovery forecasting a difficult undertaking in typical appraisal and early development settings. Recent advances in geologic modeling algorithms permit automation of the model generation process via macros and geostatistical tools. This allows rapid construction of multiple alternative geologic realizations. Despite the advances in geologic modeling, computation of the reservoir dynamic response via full-physics reservoir simulation remains a computationally expensive task. Therefore, only a few of the many probable realizations are simulated in practice. Experimental design techniques typically focus on a few discrete geologic realizations as they are inherently more suitable for continuous engineering parameters and can only crudely approximate the impact of geology. A flow-based pattern recognition algorithm (FPRA) has been developed for quantifying the forecast uncertainty as an alternative. The proposed algorithm relies on the rapid characterization of the geologic uncertainty space represented by an ensemble of sufficiently diverse static model realizations. FPRA characterizes the geologic uncertainty space by calculating connectivity distances, which quantify how different each individual realization is from all others in terms of recovery response. Fast streamline simulations are employed in evaluating these distances. By applying pattern recognition techniques to connectivity distances, a few representative realizations are identified within the model ensemble for full-physics simulation. In turn, the recovery factor probability distribution is derived from these intelligently selected simulation runs. Here, FPRA is tested on an example case where the objective is to accurately compute the recovery factor statistics as a function of geologic uncertainty in a channelized turbidite reservoir. Recovery factor cumulative distribution functions computed by FPRA compare well to the one computed via exhaustive full-physics simulations.  相似文献   

Géomorphologie de Tromelin,océan Indien     

Nick Marriner  Max Guérout  Thomas Romon  Philippe Dussouillez 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(10):766-777

Tromelin is a small coral reef island (1 km²) located in the Indian Ocean, approximately 440 km east of Madagascar and 580 km north of La Réunion. Despite the presence of a permanent Météo France weather station on Tromelin since the 1950 s, a detailed geomorhological study of the island has never been undertaken. In this paper, we describe results from the 2008 field season, which enabled us to map and describe seven geomorphological zones on the atoll. (1) Tromelin's bathymetry is characterised by a pronounced submarine slope, which attains depths of 1000 m at only 2.5 km from the island's coastline. This geomorphology is typical of volcanic hotspots. (2) A coral platform borders the emerged crown of the island. This platform is exposed at low tide and has been fashioned in an ancient Pleistocene substratum. The substratum has been eroded by abrasive marine action to its present shape since the stabilisation of relative sea level around 6000 years ago. Erosion of the reef yields most of the biogenic sediment supply to the island. (3) The upper foreshore is characterised by outcrops of beachrock. These formations show a stratfication in slabs and dip gently towards the sea in the same manner as the contemporary clastic sediments. (4) Tromelin's beaches are divided into three sub-units, which reflect the different energy dynamics around the island, in addition to the transfer of sediment from the windward to the leeward side: (i) the southern storm beaches are characterised by coral blocks reworked during episodic high-energy events; they form boulder ramparts. Four perched rampart ridges have been recorded at ∼1 m, ∼3 m, ∼4.5 m and ∼7 m above mean sea level; (ii) transitional beaches are observed between the south and the north, constituting storm blocks and coarse sands and gravels; and (iii) sandy beaches are noted on the northern leeward side, comprising rounded gravels and coarse sands. The northern tip of the island is characterised by a sand spit (∼125 × ∼225 m), whose geometry varies based on the seasonal and meteo-marine contexts. (5) On Tromelin, a number of dune formations are observed. These are best developed in the north of the island due to the south-north translation of clastic sediments by aeolian wind action, and the trapping of sands by the well-developed vegetation. The height of the dunes varies between 10 cm (the southern micro-dunes) to 250 cm in the Northeast of Tromelin. (6) Exceptional waves have deposited storm tracts up to 250 m from the foreshore zone, comprising coarse gravels and coral blocks. The storm tract deposits are most prevalent on the windward side of the island, due not only to the high-energy dynamics, but also to the absence of vegetation cover in this area. (7) The southern depression covers an area of ∼40,000 m². At its lowest point it is only 1.2 m above sea level.  相似文献   

Lithological and geochemical record of mining-induced changes in sediments from Macquarie Harbour,southwest Tasmania,Australia     

Paul Augustinus  Charles E. Barton  Atun Zawadzki  Kate Harle 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(3):625-639

Macquarie Harbour in southwest Tasmania, Australia, has been affected severely by the establishment of mines in nearby Queenstown in the 1890s. As well as heavy metal-laden acid rock drainage from the Mount Lyell mine area, over 100 Mt of mine tailings and slag were discharged into the Queen and Ring Rivers, with an estimated 10 Mt of mine tailings building a delta of ca. 2.5 km² and ca. 10 Mt of fine tailings in the harbour beyond the delta. Coring of sediments throughout Macquarie Harbour indicated that mine tailings accreted most rapidly close to the King River delta source with a significant reduction in thickness of tailings and heavy metal contamination with increasing distance from the King River source. Close to the King River delta the mine tailings are readily discriminated from the background estuarine sediments on the basis of visual logging of the core (laminations, colour), sediment grain size, sediment magnetic susceptibility and elemental geochemistry, especially concentrations of the heavy metals Cu, Zn and Pb. The high heavy metal concentrations are demonstrated by the very high contamination factors (CF > 6) for Cu and Zn, with CF values mostly >50 for Cu for the mine-impacted sediments. Although the addition of mine waste into the King River catchment has ceased, the catchment continues to be a source of these heavy metals due to acid rock drainage and remobilisation of mine waste in storage in the river banks, river bed and delta. The addition of heavy metals to the harbour sourced from the Mount Lyell mines preceded the advent of direct tailings disposal into the Queen River in 1915 with the metals probably provided by acid rock drainage from the Mount Lyell mining area.  相似文献   

An assessment of geologic sequestration potential in the panhandle of Florida USA     

Christopher J. Brown  Brandon K. Poiencot  Nick Hudyma  Barry Albright  Richard A. Esposito 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(2):793-806

One alternative to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is to store the emissions in underground geologic sequestration repositories. The efficacy of this approach has been favorably evaluated by numerous authors over the last 15 years. This paper discusses an assessment of the overall feasibility of storing emissions in three different repositories in the Florida panhandle located in the Southeastern United States. The feasibility assessment evaluates both saline aquifers and oil reservoirs located in the panhandle region. The overall feasibility is driven by the available geologic sequestration capacity, the transportation cost to deliver emissions to a respective repository, and other engineering and regulatory issues. The geologic sequestration capacity is generally controlled by the so-called storage efficiency, a variable dependent on the site-specific geology, reservoir conditions, and the injected fluid characteristics. For this paper, storage efficiency for saline repositories was assessed in more detail using numerical modeling. Based on the work completed, the 3 repositories studied have at least 4.55 gigatonnes of capacity to sequester CO₂.  相似文献   

Archean to Recent aeolian sand systems and their sedimentary record: Current understanding and future prospects     

Juan Pedro Rodríguez‐López  Lars B. Clemmensen  Nick Lancaster  Nigel P. Mountney  Gonzalo D. Veiga 《Sedimentology》2014,61(6):1487-1534

The sedimentary record of aeolian sand systems extends from the Archean to the Quaternary, yet current understanding of aeolian sedimentary processes and product remains limited. Most preserved aeolian successions represent inland sand‐sea or dunefield (erg) deposits, whereas coastal systems are primarily known from the Cenozoic. The complexity of aeolian sedimentary processes and facies variability are under‐represented and excessively simplified in current facies models, which are not sufficiently refined to reliably account for the complexity inherent in bedform morphology and migratory behaviour, and therefore cannot be used to consistently account for and predict the nature of the preserved sedimentary record in terms of formative processes. Archean and Neoproterozoic aeolian successions remain poorly constrained. Palaeozoic ergs developed and accumulated in relation to the palaeogeographical location of land masses and desert belts. During the Triassic, widespread desert conditions prevailed across much of Europe. During the Jurassic, extensive ergs developed in North America and gave rise to anomalously thick aeolian successions. Cretaceous aeolian successions are widespread in South America, Africa, Asia, and locally in Europe (Spain) and the USA. Several Eocene to Pliocene successions represent the direct precursors to the present‐day systems. Quaternary systems include major sand seas (ergs) in low‐lattitude and mid‐latitude arid regions, Pleistocene carbonate and Holocene–Modern siliciclastic coastal systems. The sedimentary record of most modern aeolian systems remains largely unknown. The majority of palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of aeolian systems envisage transverse dunes, whereas successions representing linear and star dunes remain under‐recognized. Research questions that remain to be answered include: (i) what factors control the preservation potential of different types of aeolian bedforms and what are the characteristics of the deposits of different bedform types that can be used for effective reconstruction of original bedform morphology; (ii) what specific set of controlling conditions allow for sustained bedform climb versus episodic sequence accumulation and preservation; (iii) can sophisticated four‐dimensional models be developed for complex patterns of spatial and temporal transition between different mechanisms of accumulation and preservation; and (iv) is it reasonable to assume that the deposits of preserved aeolian successions necessarily represent an unbiased record of the conditions that prevailed during episodes of Earth history when large‐scale aeolian systems were active, or has the evidence to support the existence of other major desert basins been lost for many periods throughout Earth history?  相似文献   

A system for line profile studies at the 150-foot tower on Mount Wilson     

Roger K. Ulrich  Larry Webster  John E. Boyden  Nick Magnone  Richard S. Bogart 《Solar physics》1991,135(2):211-241

We describe enhancements to the hardware and software for the 150-foot tower system on Mt. Wilson which make possible the acquisition of high precision line profile measurements. This system utilizes the 75-foot pit spectrograph with a photomultiplier detector system to scan line profiles repeatedly in order to study variations induced by the passage of waves vertically through the solar atmosphere. Oscillations of line profile parameters with an amplitude as low as 1.7 m s^–1 have been detected with this system using integrated sunlight. Phase relations between oscillations of different parts of the line profile are appropriate to upward energy transport. Consistent with the previous conclusion by Mein and Schmieder (1981), we find that the magnitude of the energy transport is compatible with the 5-min oscillations making an important contribution to the heating of the low chromosphere.The Mount Wilson Observatory is operated by the Mount Wilson Institute under agreement with the Carnegie Institution of Washington.  相似文献   

Modelling the advance–retreat cycle of a tidewater glacier with simple sediment dynamics     

J. Oerlemans  F.M. Nick 《Global and Planetary Change》2006,50(3-4):148-160

We present a simple coupled glacier-sediment model to simulate the evolution of a tidewater glacier. The model is based on a consideration of the total mass budget of a glacier, whereas ice mechanics are fully parameterized. The calving rate at the glacier terminus is assumed to be proportional to the water depth. We show that the formation of a morainic shoal has a profound influence on the response of a tidewater glacier to climatic forcing. For a slow periodic forcing of the equilibrium-line altitude, the model glacier advances steadily into the estuary, builds up a submarine terminal moraine, and then retreats rapidly when a critical point is hit. For a slowly increasing equilibrium-line altitude, at a rate as low as 1 m per 5 years, we find terminus retreat rates of up to 10 km in 50 years. Our model suggests that, although the response of tidewater glaciers to external forcing is strongly nonlinear, the onset of retreat is controlled by climate change.  相似文献   

Characteristics of rain events at an inland locality in northeastern Borneo,Malaysia     

Kawi Bidin  Nick A. Chappell 《水文研究》2006,20(18):3835-3850

Understanding the intensity and duration of tropical rain events is critical to modelling the rate and timing of wet‐canopy evaporation, the suppression of transpiration, the generation of infiltration‐excess overland flow and hence to erosion, and to river responsiveness. Despite this central role, few studies have addressed the characteristics of equatorial rainstorms. This study analyses rainfall data for a 5 km² region largely comprising of the 4 km² Sapat Kalisun Experimental Catchment in the interior of northeastern Borneo at sampling frequencies from 1 min^?1 to 1 day^?1. The work clearly shows that most rainfall within this inland, forested area is received during regular short‐duration events (<15 min) that have a relatively low intensity (i.e. less than two 0·2 mm rain‐gauge tips in almost all 5 min periods). The rainfall appears localized, with significant losses in intergauge correlations being observable in minutes in the case of the typical mid‐afternoon, convective events. This suggests that a dense rain‐gauge network, sampled at a high temporal frequency, is required for accurate distributed rainfall‐runoff modelling of such small catchments. Observed rain‐event intensity is much less than the measured infiltration capacities, and thus supports the tenet of the dominance of quick subsurface responses in controlling river behaviour in this small equatorial catchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献