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排序方式: 共有329条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
Annemarie Christophersen Nicola Litchfield Kelvin Berryman Richard Thomas Roberto Basili Laura Wallace William Ries Gavin P. Hayes Kathleen M. Haller Toshikazu Yoshioka Richard D. Koehler Dan Clark Monica Wolfson-Schwehr Margaret S. Boettcher Pilar Villamor Nick Horspool Teraphan Ornthammarath Ramon Zuñiga Robert M. Langridge Mark W. Stirling Tatiana Goded Carlos Costa Robert Yeats 《Natural Hazards》2015,79(1):111-135
32.
Philipp Matzneller Francesca Ventura Nicola Gaspari Paola Rossi Pisa 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):717-731
Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952–2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk. 相似文献
33.
Claudio Cassardo ;Nicola Loglisci ;Min Wei Qian ;Silvia Ferrarese ;Arnaldo Longhetto ;Gianpaolo Balsamo 《气象与减灾研究》2008,31(2):6-13
对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m/s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m/s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m/s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统(RAMS)模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。 相似文献
34.
X. Ribeyre P. Nicolaï S. Galera V. T. Tikhonchuk 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,322(1-4):85-90
Supersonic plasma jets are ubiquitous in astrophysics. Our study focus on the jets emanated from Herbig-Haro (HH) objects. They have velocities of a few hundred km/s and are extending over the distances more than a parsec. Interaction of the jets with surrounding matter produces two specific structures in the jet head: the bow shock and the Mach disk. The radiative cooling of these shocks affects strongly the jet dynamics. A tool to understand the physics of these jets is the laboratory experiment. A supersonic jet interaction with surrounding plasma was studied on the PALS laser facility. A collimated high-Z plasma jet with a velocity exceeding 400 km/s was generated and propagated over a few millimeters length. Here we report on study the effect of radiative cooling on the head jet structure with a 2D radiative hydrodynamic code. The simulation results demonstrated the scalability of the experimental observations to the HH jets. 相似文献
35.
A multi‐storage groundwater concept for the SWAT model to emphasize nonlinear groundwater dynamics in lowland catchments 下载免费PDF全文
Hydrological models are useful tools to analyze present and future conditions of water quantity and quality. The integrated modelling of water and nutrients needs an adequate representation of the different discharge components. In common with many lowlands, groundwater contribution to the discharge in the North German lowlands is a key factor for a reasonable representation of the water balance, especially in low flow periods. Several studies revealed that the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performs poorly for low flow periods. This paper deals with the extension of the groundwater module of the SWAT model to enhance low flow representation. The current two‐storage concept of SWAT was further developed to a three‐storage concept. This was realized due to modification of the groundwater module by splitting the active groundwater storage into a fast and a slow contributing aquifer. The results of this study show that the groundwater module with three storages leads to a good prediction of the overall discharge especially for the recession limbs and the low flow periods. The improved performance is reflected in the signature measures for the mid‐segment (percent bias ?2.4% vs ?15.9%) and the low segment (percent bias 14.8% vs 46.8%) of the flow duration curve. The three‐storage groundwater module is more process oriented than the original version due to the introduction of a fast and a slow groundwater flow component. The three‐storage version includes a modular approach, because groundwater storages can be activated or deactivated independently for subbasin and hydrological response unit level. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
36.
正1.Introduction The impacts arising from climate change and climate variability pose major challenges to global and regional security and economic prosperity(UNFCCC,2015).Some regions are more at risk than others,through heightened exposure to climatic hazards,and high vulnerability and exposure to such hazards.China,with its rapid economic development,large 相似文献
37.
Vincenzo Lipari Domenico Urbano Emmanuel Spadavecchia Jacopo Panizzardi Nicola Bienati 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(1):305-315
Reflection tomography is the industry standard tool for velocity model building, but it is also an ill‐posed inverse problem as its solution is not unique. The usual way to obtain an acceptable result is to regularize tomography by feeding the inversion with some a priori information. The simplest regularization forces the solution to be smooth, implicitly assuming that seismic velocity exhibits some degree of spatial correlation. However, velocity is a rock property; thus, the geometry and structure of rock formations should drive correlation in velocity depth models. This observation calls for constraints driven by geological models. In this work, we present a set of structural constraints that feed reflection tomography with geometrical information. These constraints impose the desired characteristics (flatness, shape, position, etc.) on imaged reflectors but act on the velocity update. Failure to respect the constraints indicates either velocity inaccuracies or wrong assumptions concerning the constraints. Reflection tomography with structural constraints is a flexible framework that can be specialized in order to achieve different goals: among others, to flatten the base of salt bodies or detachment surfaces, to recover the horizontalness of oil–water contacts, or to impose the co‐location of the same imaged horizon between PP and PS images. The straightforward application of structural constraints is that of regularizing tomography through geological information, particularly at the latest stages of the depth imaging workflow, when the depth migration structural setting reached a consistent geological interpretation. Structural constraints are also useful in minimizing the well‐to‐seismic mis‐ties. Moreover, they can be used as a tool to check the consistency of interpreters' hypothesis with seismic data. Indeed, inversion with structural constraints will preserve image focusing only if the interpreters' insights are consistent with the data. Results from synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of reflection tomography with structural constraints. 相似文献
38.
Mechanisms linking active rock glaciers and impounded surface water formation in high‐mountain areas 下载免费PDF全文
Nicola Colombo Luigi Sambuelli Cesare Comina Chiara Colombero Marco Giardino Stephan Gruber Gaetano Viviano Livia Vittori Antisari Franco Salerno 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(2):417-431
Rock glaciers are slowly flowing mixtures of debris and ice occurring in mountains. They can represent a reservoir of water, and melting ice inside them can affect surface water hydrochemistry. Investigating the interactions between rock glaciers and water bodies is therefore necessary to better understand these mechanisms. With this goal, we elucidate the hydrology and structural setting of a rock glacier–marginal pond system, providing new insights into the mechanisms linking active rock glaciers and impounded surface waters. This was achieved through the integration of waterborne geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography and self‐potentials) and heat tracing. Results of these surveys showed that rock glacier advance has progressively filled the valley depression where the pond is located, creating a dam that could have modified the level of impounded water. A sub‐surface hydrological window connecting the rock glacier to the pond was also detected, where an inflow of cold and mineralised underground waters from the rock glacier was observed. Here, greater water contribution from the rock glacier occurred following intense precipitation events during the ice‐free season, with concomitant increasing electrical conductivity values. The outflowing dynamic of the pond is dominated by a sub‐surface seepage where a minor fault zone in bedrock was found, characterised by altered and highly‐fractured rocks. The applied approach is evaluated here as a suitable technique for investigating logistically‐complex hydrological settings which could be possibly transferred to wider scales of investigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
39.
Filippo Ubertini Nicola Cavalagli Alban Kita Gabriele Comanducci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):775-801
The response of the San Pietro monumental bell-tower located in Perugia, Italy, to the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence is investigated, taking advantage of the availability of field data recorded by a vibration-based SHM system installed in December 2014 to detect earthquake-induced damages. The tower is located about 85 km in the NW direction from the epicenter of the first major shock of the sequence, the Accumoli Mw6.0 earthquake of August 24th, resulting in a small local PGA of about 30 cm/s2, whereby near-field PGA was measured as 915.97 cm/s2 (E–W component) and 445.59 cm/s2 (N–S component). Similar PGA values also characterized the two other major shocks of the sequence (Ussita Mw5.9 and Norcia Mw6.5 earthquakes of October 26th and 30th, respectively). Despite the relatively low intensity of such earthquakes in Perugia, the analysis of long-term monitoring data clearly highlights that small permanent changes in the structural behavior of the bell-tower have occurred after the earthquakes, with decreases in all identified natural frequencies. Such natural frequency decays are fully consistent with what predicted by non-linear finite element simulations and, in particular, with the development of microcracks at the base of the columns of the belfry. Microcracks in these regions, and in the rest of tower, are however hardly distinguishable from pre-existing ones and from the physiological cracking of a masonry structure, what validates the effectiveness of the SHM system in detecting earthquake-induced damage at a stage where this is not yet detectable by visual inspections. 相似文献
40.
Alexander Eleftheriou Carolina Filizzola Nicola Genzano Teodosio Lacava Mariano Lisi Rossana Paciello Nicola Pergola Filippos Vallianatos Valerio Tramutoli 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(1):285-303
Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth’s emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004–2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space–time window around (M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered on a so long testing period, seems already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST approach and RETIRA index) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to t-DASH. 相似文献