Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model     

Xiaoyong Zhang  Georg Hörmann  Junfeng Gao  Nicola Fohrer 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):854-869

Abstract

A major goal in hydrological modelling is to identify and quantify different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process. This paper analyses the structural uncertainty in a streamflow modelling system by investigating a set of models with increasing model structure complexity. The models are applied to two basins: Kielstau in Germany and XitaoXi in China. The results show that the model structure is an important factor affecting model performance. For the Kielstau basin, influences from drainage and wetland are critical for the local runoff generation, while for the XitaoXi basin accurate distributions of precipitation and evapotranspiration are two of the determining factors for the success of the river flow simulations. The derived model uncertainty bounds exhibit appropriate coverage of observations. Both case studies indicate that simulation uncertainty for the low-flow period contributes more to the overall uncertainty than that for the peak-flow period, although the main hydrological features in these two basins differ greatly.

Citation Zhang, X. Y., Hörmann, G., Gao, J. F. & Fohrer, N. (2011) Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 854–869.  相似文献   

A simple method to help determine landslide susceptibility from spaceborne InSAR data: the Montescaglioso case study     

Tommaso Carlà  Federico Raspini  Emanuele Intrieri  Nicola Casagli 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(24):1492

On December 3, 2013, a large complex landslide was triggered SW of the town of Montescaglioso (Southern Italy), causing the destruction of roads, commercial buildings and private dwellings, as well as several direct and indirect economic losses. A set of interferometric ground measurements acquired by the Cosmo-SkyMed satellite constellation and processed by means of the SqueeSAR algorithm was used to study the pre-event slope displacements in the entire Montescaglioso municipal area. Data span from January 30, 2012, to December 2, 2013, and show average line-of-sight velocities of 1–10 mm/year in the slope sector ultimately affected by the collapse. In retrospect, a time series analysis of the radar targets was performed in order to identify and characterize all the slope instabilities in proximity of the town. This was based on the setup of characteristic thresholds of displacement. The procedure permitted to locate several areas which recurrently exceeded these previously established thresholds, in consistency with the amount of precipitation. In particular, the major source of potential hazard in the area was indeed found where the December 3, 2013, landslide eventually occurred. The results of this quick data processing technique were validated through comparison with two independently developed landslide maps. This simple method, which is not supposed to diminish the importance of geomorphologic field surveys, could improve both the accuracy and the update rate of landslide susceptibility maps. Not relying on arbitrary or empirically derived approaches, it has the advantage of computing statistically based thresholds specific for each time series. By indicating the slope sectors in higher need of deeper in situ investigation, more support could be provided to administrative bodies for the processes of risk assessment and management.  相似文献   

Nephelines from the Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex (Southern Italy): crystal-chemical,structural and genetic investigations     

Giuseppina Balassone  Volker Kahlenberg  Angela Altomare  Angela Mormone  Rosanna Rizzi  Michele Saviano  Nicola Mondillo 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,108(1):71-90

Sixteen nephelines from different geological occurrences were sampled at the type-locality, the Somma-Vesuvius volcanic complex (southern Italy), and investigated for their chemistry and crystal structure obtained by both single-crystal and powder X-ray diffraction. Nepheline-bearing samples are metamorphic or from magmatic ejecta and pumice deposits. The lower K contents characterize the pumice- and some metamorphic-derived nephelines, whereas the higher ones are found in some samples from magmatic nodules. The amount of the anorthite molecule, quite low on average, can be more variable in the metamorphic nephelines. The crystal-structure investigations on Somma-Vesuvius samples compare well with previous studies of natural nephelines. All 16 nepheline samples adopt space group P6₃. The observed lattice parameters vary between 9.9768–9.9946 Å (for a) and 8.3614–8.3777 Å (for c), respectively. Furthermore, chemical analysis revealed that all specimens exhibit an excess of Si relative the ideal Si:Al ratio of 1:1. The analysis of the T-O distances in our samples clearly indicates a distinct ordering process of aluminium and silicon on the tetrahedral sites which is an agreement with Loewenstein’s rule. A linear correlation between the distance of symmetry equivalent split atoms O(1)-O(1)’ and the T(1)-O(1)-T(2) tilt angle was observed. The average <B-O> (B = Na) distances of all crystals are very similar which is consistent with the outcome of the site population refinement indicating full occupancy with sodium. Oriented precession-type sections of reciprocal space indicated the presence of at least the most intense family of satellite peaks, demonstrating that this group of satellite reflections can occur not only in nephelines from pegmatites and ijolites but also in rocks from completely different petrological settings.  相似文献   

Terrestrial laser scanner and geomechanical surveys for the rapid evaluation of rock fall susceptibility scenarios   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Giovanni Gigli  Stefano Morelli  Simone Fornera  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2014,11(1):1-14

The primary objective of this paper is to present a semiautomatic procedure that, integrated with traditional methods, can be useful for a rapid definition of rock fall susceptibility scenarios with the purpose of civil protection. Due to its morphology (steep slopes and narrow valleys), regional seismicity, and rock mass characteristics, the Nera Valley (Valnerina, Umbria Region, Italy) is characterized by high rock fall risk. With the aim of covering a wide range of features and investigating the main advantages and drawbacks of the proposed approach, data collection (terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and geomechanical surveys) was carried out at three different slopes. Detailed three-dimensional (3D) models were created to reconstruct the shape and volume of the most unstable blocks, to define the position of the main rock fall source areas, and to precisely distinguish the outcropping materials and the position of the elements at risk for reliable runout analyses. The proposed approach can be useful in supporting proper maintenance and land management programs both in ordinary and in emergency circumstances.  相似文献   

Predictive modeling for preventive Archaeology: overview and case study     

Maria Danese  Nicola Masini  Marilisa Biscione  Rosa Lasaponara 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2014,6(1):42-55

The use of GIS and Spatial Analysis for predictive models is an important topic in preventive archaeology. Both of these tools play an important role in the Support Decision System (SDS) for archaeological research and for providing information useful to reduce archaeological risk. Over the years, a number of predictive models in the GIS environment have been developed and proposed. The existing models substantially differ from each other in methodological approaches and parameters used for performing the analysis. Until now, only few works consider spatial autocorrelation, which can provide more effective results. This paper provides a brief review of the existing predictive models, and then proposes a new methodological approach, applied to the neolithic sites in the Apulian Tavoliere (Southern Italy), that combines traditional techniques with methods that allow us to include spatial autocorrelation analysis to take into account the spatial relationships among the diverse sites.  相似文献   

GNSS software receiver for the MAGIA (Missione Altimetrica Geofisica GeochImica lunAre) mission     

Gabriele?Pirazzi  Nicola?De?Quattro  Cesare?DionisioEmail author 《Experimental Astronomy》2011,32(1):51-61

In recent years a number of missions have been conceived to acquire and track signals from GPS satellites at altitudes higher than the GPS constellation itself. The main purpose of SDR is to reduce the number of hardware components, projected for specific unmodifiable uses, and utilize general purpose units: on board CPU, DSP or FPGA. In this paper he study and design of a GNSS Software Receiver for space application, applied to a Lunar Mission, is presented with particular attention on Space Segment device and on Ground Facilities.  相似文献   

Stability of streambanks formed in partially saturated soils and effects of negative pore water pressures: the Sieve River (Italy)     

Massimo Rinaldi  Nicola Casagli 《Geomorphology》1999,26(4):707

Streambanks of alluvial channels are usually composed of loose materials, which are unsaturated in ambient conditions. Unsaturated soils are subject to negative pore water pressures, which cause an apparent cohesion. The latter is the main factor in allowing the stability of near-vertical banks. Even during moderate in-bank flow events, the apparent cohesion can be strongly reduced as the material approaches full saturation; therefore, during the drawdown phase, as the confining pressure of the water in the channel disappears, a bank failure is likely to occur. Channel bed-level lowering along the Sieve River, Central Italy, has caused widespread bank instability. A geomorphological reconnaissance of forms and processes was followed by in situ tests to determine the shear strength of the banks. Interpretation of the tests and a streambank stability analysis were based on concepts of soil mechanics for unsaturated soils, in order to obtain relations between bank angle and height in limit equilibrium conditions. A stability chart was obtained with curves for different apparent cohesion values, and a stability analysis was performed taking into account the effects of flow events. In order to investigate the pore pressure effects, a series of piezo-tensiometers were installed in a streambank of the Sieve River. Data from a 1 year monitoring period show variations in pore water pressure and matric suction as a consequence of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and water stage variations. A planar failure with a tension crack occurred in the upper cohesive part of the bank during December 1996. The safety factor has been expressed as a function of the geometry of the bank and of the shear strength of the material. Safety factor variations through time are therefore shown as a function of seasonal variations in matric suction.  相似文献   

Channelization of a large Alpine river: what is left of its original morphodynamics?          下载免费PDF全文

Vittoria Scorpio  Simone Zen  Walter Bertoldi  Nicola Surian  Marco Mastronunzio  Elena Dai Prá  Guido Zolezzi  Francesco Comiti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(5):1044-1062

The Adige River drains 12 200 km² of the Eastern Alps and flows for 213 km within this mountain range. Similar to other large rivers in Central Europe, the Adige River was subject to massive channelization works during the 19th century. Thanks to the availability of several historical maps, this river represents a very valuable case study to document the extent to which the morphology of the river changed due to channelization and to understand how much is left of its original morphodynamics. The study was based on the analysis of seven sets of historical maps dating from 1803–1805 to 1915–1927, on geomorphological analysis, on the application of mathematical morphodynamic theories and on the application of bar and channel pattern prediction models. The study concerns 115 km of the main stem and 29 km of its tributaries. In the pre‐channelization conditions, the Adige River presented a prevalence of single‐thread channel planforms. Multi‐thread patterns developed only immediately downstream of the main confluences. During the 19th century, the Adige underwent considerable channel adjustment, consisting of channel narrowing, straightening, and reduction of bars and islands. Multi‐thread and single‐thread reaches evolved through different evolutionary trajectories, considering both the channel width and the bar/vegetation interaction. Bar and channel pattern predictors showed good correspondence with the observed patterns, including the development of multi‐thread morphologies downstream of the confluences. Application of the free‐bar predictor helped to interpret the strong reduction – almost complete loss – of exposed sediment bars after the channelization works, quantifying the riverbed inclination to form alternate bars. This morphological evolution can be observed in other Alpine rivers of similar size and similar massive channelization, therefore, a simplified conceptual model for large rivers subjected to channelization is proposed, showing that a relatively small difference in the engineered channel width may have a strong impact on the river dynamics, specifically on bar formation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geophysical Methods and Spatial Information for the Analysis of Decaying Frescoes     

Maria Danese  Maria Sileo  Nicola Masini 《Surveys in Geophysics》2018,39(6):1149-1166

A promising application field of geophysics is monitoring and analysis of the state of conservation of works of art, such as wall paintings including frescoes. To this aim, two are the issues to address: the choice of the most appropriate survey instrument and method, and the analysis and interpretation of data coming from the survey, after their processing. This paper deals with a spatial analysis based protocol for the interpretation of data coming from different non-invasive tests, to improve the extraction process of the pattern decay. The case study is a frescoed wall of Gymnasium in Pompeii, investigated with the following non-invasive techniques: structure-from-motion photogrammetry (SfM), ground-penetrating radar, multitemporal infrared thermography.  相似文献