Climate Change and Water Resources in Britain   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

Nigel W. Arnell 《Climatic change》1998,39(1):83-110

This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river flows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality – as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents – will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, recreation and power generation, and will have implications for water quality management. Flood risk is likely to increase, implying a reduction in standards of flood protection. The paper discusses adaptation options.  相似文献   

An integrated microtextural and chemical approach to zircon geochronology: refining the Archaean history of the Napier Complex,east Antarctica   总被引：9，自引：5，他引：4  

Nigel?M.?KellyEmail author  Simon?L.?Harley 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2005,149(1):57-84

Integrated textural and chemical characterisation of zircon is used to refine the U–Pb geochronology of the Archaean, ultra-high temperature Napier Complex, east Antarctica. Scanning electron microscope characterisation of zircon and the rare earth element compositions of zircon, garnet and orthopyroxene are integrated to place zircon growth in an assemblage context, thereby providing tighter constraints on the timing of magmatic and metamorphic events. Data indicate that magmatism occurred in the central and northern Napier Complex at ca. 2,990 Ma. A regional, relatively low-pressure metamorphic event occurred at ca. 2,850–2,840 Ma. Mineral REE data from garnet-bearing orthogneiss indicate that ca. 2,490–2,485 Ma U–Pb zircon ages provide an absolute minimum age for the ultrahigh temperature (UHT) foliation preserved in this rock. Internal zircon zoning relationships and estimated zircon-garnet D_REE values from paragneiss suggest that an absolute minimum age of ultra-high temperature metamorphism is ca. 2,510 Ma, but that it is more likely to be older than ca. 2,545 Ma. We suggest that the high proportion of published zircon U–Pb data with ages between ca. 2,490–2,450 Ma reflects late, post-peak zircon growth and does not date the timing of peak UHT metamorphism.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at  相似文献   

Speculations on the Thermal and Tectonic History of the Earth   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Dan McKenzie  Nigel Weiss 《Geophysical Journal International》1975,42(1):131-174

Summary. The connection between the Earth's thermal history and convection in the mantle is exploited to elucidate the early evolution of the Earth. It appears probable that convection extending over almost all of the mantle has dominated vertical heat transport throughout the whole of the Earth's history. Only in boundary layers at the surface and at a depth of 650–700 km is conduction likely to be important. The resulting evolution appears to be consistent with geological observations on early Precambrian rocks.
Various arguments are put forward in favour of two horizontal scales of convective flow in the mantle at depths less than 650 km. The large scale flow is related to the motion of major plates, and must be ordered over distances of more than 5000 km. Its evolution and energetics are discussed and there are no obvious problems in maintaining the proposed convective motions. Small scale flow with an extent of the order of 500 km appears necessary both to explain the heat flow through older parts of the Earth's surface and to reconcile the geophysical observations with the results of numerical experiments. Though the existence of the small scale flow is at present speculative, various tests of its presence are proposed.  相似文献   

Stratigraphic relations, kimberlite emplacement and lithospheric thermal evolution, Quiricó Basin, Minas Gerais State, Brazil     

George Read  Herman Grutter  Stewart Winter  Nigel Luckman  Frank Gaunt  Fernando Thomsen   《Lithos》2004,77(1-4):803-818

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The avalonian and related peri-gondwana terranes of the circum-north atlantic: R.D. Nance and M.D. Thompson Special Paper of the Geological Society of America 304; 390 pp. ISBN 0-8137-2304-3. $95.00     

Nigel Woodcock 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》1997,14(7-8)

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Monitoring the incidence of escaped farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in rivers and fisheries of the United Kingdom and Ireland: current progress and recommendations for future programmes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Walker  Alan M.; Beveridge  Malcolm C.M.; Crozier  Walter; O Maoileidigh  Niall; Milner  Nigel 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(7):1201-1210

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The new simple design equations for the ultimate compressive strength of imperfect stiffened plates     

zgür zgü  Purnendu K. Das  Nigel Barltrop 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(7):970-986

The new simple design equations for predicting the ultimate compressive strength of stiffened plates with initial imperfections in the form of welding-induced residual stresses and geometric deflections were developed in this study. A non-linear finite element method was used to investigate on 60 ANSYS elastic–plastic buckling analyses of a wide range of typical ship panel geometries. Reduction factors of the ultimate strength are produced from the results of 60 ANSYS inelastic finite element analyses. The proposed design equations have been developed based on these reduction factors. For the real ship structural stiffened plates, the most general loading case is a combination of longitudinal stress, transverse stress, shear stress and lateral pressure. The new simplified analytical method was generalized to deal with such combined load cases. The accuracy of the proposed equations was validated by the experimental results. Comparisons show that the adopted method has sufficient accuracy for practical applications in ship design.  相似文献   

Experimental Study on the Mobility of Channelized Granular Mass Flow     

ZHOU Gongdan  Nigel G. WRIGHT  SUN Qicheng  CAI Qipeng 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(3):988-998

Granular mass flows (e.g., debris flows/avalanches) in landslide-prone areas are of great concern because they often cause catastrophic disasters as a result of their long run-out distances and large impact forces. To investigate the factors influencing granular mass flow mobility, experimental tests were conducted in a flume model. Granular materials consisting of homogeneous sand and non-homogeneous sandy soil were used for studying particle size effects. Run-out tests with variable flow masses, water contents, and sloping channel confinement parameters were conducted as well. The results indicated that granular mass flow mobility was significantly influenced by the initial water content; a critical water content corresponding to the smallest flow mobility exists for different granular materials. An increase in the total flow mass generally induced a reduction in the travel angle (an increase in flow mobility). Consistent with field observations, the travel angles for different granular materials decreased roughly in proportion to the logarithm of mass. The flume model tests illustrate that the measured travel angles increase as the proportion of fine particles increases. Interestingly, natural terrain possesses critical confinement characteristics for different granular mass flows.  相似文献   

Original Sedimentary Pattern of an Inverted Basin: A Case Study from the Bozhong Depression, Offshore Bohai Bay Basin     

ZHAO Junfeng  LIU Chiyang  HUANG Lei  MOUNTNEY Nigel  HAN Shaoji  LIU Peng  HU Junhao 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(6):2163-2181

The third member of Shahejie Formation(Sha-3 member; 42–38Ma of Eocene) in the Bozhong Depression,offshore Bohai Bay Basin was subject to multiple post-depositional modifications. The present structural framework of the Bozhong Depression,which is characterized by sags alternating with uplifts,does not reflect its original sedimentary pattern. Previous studies have not discussed the post-depositional modification of this succession,including the sedimentary pattern variations and the depositional geodynamic setting. This work determined the characteristics of the post-depositional modification and original sedimentary pattern of the Bozhong Depression through analysis of seismic data,well-log data and fission-track ages. The results demonstrate that the Shijiutuo rise,a major structural feature of the current basin,did not exist during the major depositional stage of the Sha-3 member,when the Qinnan sag was largely connected to the Bozhong sag to form a single contiguous deposition area within the basin. By contrast,the Shaleitian and Chengbei rises,located in the western part of the Bozhong Depression,have existed before the depositional period of the Eocene Sha-3 member; these features were manifested as syn-depositional tilted fault blocks,the uplifted footwall blocks of which provided sediments for the neighboring Shanan and Chengbei sags. The western part of the Bonan low rise,located in the southern part of the Bozhong Depression,did not experience uplifting during the depositional phase of the Eocene Sha-3 member. The Huanghekou sag was connected with the Bozhong sag in the western part of the Bozhong Depression. The original sedimentary boundary of the southern Miaoxi sag possibly extended eastward about 10 km and connected with the Bozhong sag at its northern part. The present-day Bodong low rise,which is bounded by the Tan–Lu fault zone,also formed after the depositional period of Eocene Sha-3 member. It is thus concluded that the Bozhong Depression formed a connected large-scale sub-basin during the depositional stage of the Eocene Sha-3 member. Several neighboring sags that are now separated by rises,including the Qinnan,Shanan,Chengbei,Huanghekou,Miaoxi and Bodong sags,formed a single contiguous depositional area during the Eocene. The significant differences between the present and original basin patter and framework provide valuable information for better understanding the history of basin inversion and its impact on related hydrocarbon-system evolution.  相似文献   

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Nigel W. Arnell  Simon N. Gosling 《Climatic change》2016,134(3):387-401

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5?×?0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km² of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km² of cropland, and the change in risk varies between ?9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.  相似文献