Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Mabel C. Marulanda  Martha L. Carreño  Omar D. Cardona  Mario G. Ordaz  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):59-84

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.  相似文献   

Sorption of lead by chemically modified rice bran     

T. Fatima  R. Nadeem  A. Masood  R. Saeed  M. Ashraf 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2013,10(6):1255-1264

In this work, the effectiveness of native and chemically modified rice bran to remove heavy metal Pb(II) ions from aqueous solution was examined. Chemical modifications with some simple and low-cost chemicals resulted in enhancement of the adsorption capacities and had faster kinetics than native rice bran. Experiments were conducted in shake flasks to monitor the upshot of parameters over a range of pH, initial Pb(II) concentrations and contact times using a batch model study. The sorption capacities q (mg g^?1) increased in the following order: NaOH (147.78), Ca(OH)₂ (139.08), Al(OH)₃ (127.24), esterification (124.28), NaHCO₃ (118.08), methylation (118.88), Na₂CO₃ (117.12) and native (80.24). The utmost uptake capacity q (mg g^?1) was shown by NaOH-pretreated rice bran. The results showed that, using NaOH-modified rice bran, the chief removal of Pb(II) was 74.54 % at pH 5, primary Pb(II) concentration 100 mg L^?1 and contact time 240 min. Equilibrium isotherms for the Pb(II) adsorption were analyzed by Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models. The Langmuir isotherm model, showing Pb(II) sorption as accessible through the high value of the correlation coefficient (R ² = 0.993), showed a q _max value of 416.61 mg g^?1. The kinetic model illustrated adsorption rates well, depicted by a second order, which gives an indication concerning the rate-limiting step. Thermodynamic evaluation of the metal ion ?G ^o was carried out and led to the observation that the adsorption reaction is spontaneous and endothermic in nature. NaOH chemically modified rice bran was a superb biosorbent for exclusion of Pb(II) and proved to be excellent for industrial applications.  相似文献   

Inverted basin analysis and geological modeling, Razzak Oil Field, Western Desert, Egypt     

Mohamed Salah Sedek  Omar Mohamed Mohamed Al Mahdy 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(7):2261-2283

This paper deals with a geological modeling based on seismic and well data of the Razzak Oil Field, located in northwestern desert of Egypt aimed mainly at improving the knowledge on inversion tectonics in the sedimentary basin corresponding to the oil field. Contour maps of significant seismic horizons corresponding to the top of Meso-Cenozoic formations which represent the stratigraphic traps of the oil field (top Apollonia, top Abu Roash “G,” top Bahariya, and top Alamein) are presented. The final model consists of geological cross-sections showing the inversion basin in the Razzak Oil Field. From the seismic data interpretation and modeling, we have different results matching with regional tectonic and transcurrent motion model. There are two main fault trends: the first one was northeast–southwest matching the Jurassic rift where the Jurassic is characterized by normal faults that formed in conjunction with the opening of the Neo-Tethys, and the other fault trend is northwest–southeast matching with Cretaceous faults. This is followed by a period of compressive tectonism (Syrian Arc deformation) in which two of the Jurassic normal faulted blocks (one at the northern part and the other at the southern part of the Qattara–Alamein ridge in the Razzak field) are reactivated as reverse faulted by Eocene–Early Oligocene time.  相似文献   

Optimal design of structures for earthquake loads by a hybrid RBF-BPSO method     

Eysa Salajegheh  Saeed Gholizadeh  Mohsen Khatibinia 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2008,7(1):13-24

The optimal seismic design of structures requires that time history analyses （THA） be carried out repeatedly. This makes the optimal design process inefficient, in particular, if an evolutionary algorithm is used. To reduce the overall time required for structural optimization, two artificial intelligence strategies are employed. In the first strategy, radial basis function （RBF） neural networks are used to predict the time history responses of structures in the optimization flow. In the second strategy, a binary particle swarm optimization （BPSO） is used to find the optimum design. Combining the RBF and BPSO, a hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method is proposed in this paper, which achieves fast optimization with high computational performance. Two examples are presented and compared to determine the optimal weight of structures under earthquake loadings using both exact and approximate analyses. The numerical results demonstrate the computational advantages and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method for the seismic design of structures.  相似文献   

Community forest management in Mexico: carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation through rural development   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel Klooster  Omar Masera   《Global Environmental Change》2000,10(4):2184

Forest management is an important carbon mitigation strategy for developing countries. As demonstrated by the case of Mexico, community forest management is especially effective because it offers tangible local benefits while conserving forests and sequestering carbon. Community forestry receives minimal government support now, but the clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol could leverage additional resources to promote the approach in Mexico and elsewhere. We argue that adequately designed and implemented, community forestry management projects can avoid deforestation and restore forest cover and forest density. They comprise promising options for providing both carbon mitigation and sustainable rural development. These kinds of projects should be included in the CDM.  相似文献   

Provenance, diagenesis, tectonic setting and geochemistry of Tawil Sandstone (Lower Devonian) in Central Saudi Arabia     

Omar A. Al-Harbi  M. Mujtaba Khan 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2008,33(3-4):278-287

The Tawil Sandstone (Lower Devonian) in Central Saudi Arabia overlies the Sharwara Member of the Tayyarat Formation (Silurian) and succeeded conformly by the Shaiba Member of the Jauf Formation. Petrographical data reveal that the Tawil Sandstone comprises 96% quartz, 3% feldspar, and 1% rock fragments and all samples are classified as quartz arenites. The presence of well sorted, altered to fresh feldspar, and discriminate function analysis suggests that the sediments have been subjected to substartial reworking resulting in a high level of maturity. Modal analysis data (Q–F–L) suggest a stable cratonic provenance for the sediments and accumulation in a passive margin basin is indicated (binary plot of SiO₂ vs K₂O/Na₂O). Diagenetic features include dissolution of feldspar and rock fragments, compaction, reduction of the existing pore space through rearrangements, and rotation and fragmentation of grains resulting in dissolution of quartz grains and cementation.  相似文献   

Quantifying deformation in North Borneo with GPS     

Mohamad?Asrul?MustafarEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Wim?J.?F.?Simons  Felix?Tongkul  Chalermchon?Satirapod  Kamaludin?Mohd?Omar  Pieter?N.?A.?M.?Visser 《Journal of Geodesy》2017,91(10):1241-1259

The existence of intra-plate deformation of the Sundaland platelet along its eastern edge in North Borneo, South-East Asia, makes it an interesting area that still is relatively understudied. In addition, the motion of the coastal area of North-West Borneo is directed toward a frontal fold-and-thrust belt and has been fueling a long debate on the possible geophysical sources behind it. At present this fold-and-thrust belt is not generating significant seismic activity and may also not be entirely active due to a decreasing shelfal extension from south to north. Two sets of Global Positioning System (GPS) data have been used in this study; the first covering a time period from 1999 until 2004 (ending just before the Giant Sumatra–Andaman earthquake) to determine the continuous Sundaland tectonic plate motion, and the second from 2009 until 2011 to investigate the current deformations of North Borneo. Both absolute and relative positioning methods were carried out to investigate horizontal and vertical displacements. Analysis of the GPS results indicates a clear trend of extension along coastal regions of Sarawak and Brunei in North Borneo. On the contrary strain rate tensors in Sabah reveal that only insignificant and inconsistent extension and compression occurs throughout North-West Borneo. Moreover, station velocities and rotation rate tensors on the northern part of North Borneo suggest a clockwise (micro-block) rotation. The first analysis of vertical displacements recorded by GPS in North-West Borneo points to low subsidence rates along the western coastal regions of Sabah and inconsistent trends between the Crocker and Trusmadi mountain ranges. These results have not been able to either confirm or reject the hypothesis that gravity sliding is the main driving force behind the local motions in North Borneo. The ongoing Sundaland–Philippine Sea plate convergence may also still play an active role in the present-day deformation (crustal shortening) in North Borneo and the possible clockwise rotation of the northern part of North Borneo as a micro-block. However, more observations need to be collected to determine if the northern part of North Borneo indeed is (slowly) moving independently.  相似文献   

Characterization of carbon monoxide,methane and nonmethane hydrocarbons in emerging cities of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and in Singapore     

Barbara?BarlettaEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Isobel?J.?Simpson  Nicola?J.?Blake  Simone?Meinardi  Louisa?K.?Emmons  Omar?S.?Aburizaiza  Azhar?Siddique  Jahan?Zeb  Liya?E.?Yu  Haider?A.?Khwaja  Muhammad?A.?Farrukh  Donald?R.?Blake 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2017,74(1):87-113

We investigate the composition of 63 C₂-C₁₀ nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), methane (CH₄) and carbon monoxide (CO), in Jeddah, Mecca, and Madina (Saudi Arabia), in Lahore, (Pakistan), and in Singapore. We established a database with which to compare and contrast NMHCs in regions where ambient levels and emissions are poorly characterized, but where conditions are favorable to the formation of tropospheric ozone, and where measurements are essential for improving emission inventories and modeling. This dataset will also serve as a base for further analysis of air pollution in Western Saudi Arabia including, but not limited to, the estimation of urban emissions and long range pollution transport from these regions. The measured species showed enhanced levels in all Saudi Arabian cities compared to the local background but were generally much lower than in Lahore. In Madina, vehicle exhaust was the dominant NMHC source, as indicated by enhanced levels of combustion products and by the good correlation between NMHCs and CO, while in Jeddah and Mecca a combination of sources needs to be considered. Very high NMHC levels were measured in Lahore, and elevated levels of CH₄ in Lahore were attributed to natural gas. When we compared our results with 2010 emissions from the MACCity global inventory, we found discrepancies in the relative contribution of NMHCs between the measurements and the inventory. In all cities, alkenes (especially ethene and propene) dominated the hydroxyl radical (OH) reactivity (k _OH) because of their great abundance and their relatively fast reaction rates with OH.  相似文献   

Prediction of rainfall using artificial neural networks for synoptic station of Mashhad: a case study     

Najmeh?Khalili  Saeed?Reza?KhodashenasEmail author  Kamran?Davary  Mohammad?Mousavi?Baygi  Fatemeh?Karimaldini 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(13):624

In this paper, we have utilized ANN (artificial neural network) modeling for the prediction of monthly rainfall in Mashhad synoptic station which is located in Iran. To achieve this black-box model, we have used monthly rainfall data from 1953 to 2003 for this synoptic station. First, the Hurst rescaled range statistical (R/S) analysis is used to evaluate the predictability of the collected data. Then, to extract the rainfall dynamic of this station using ANN modeling, a three-layer feed-forward perceptron network with back propagation algorithm is utilized. Using this ANN structure as a black-box model, we have realized the complex dynamics of rainfall through the past information of the system. The approach employs the gradient decent algorithm to train the network. Trying different parameters, two structures, M₅₃₁ and M₇₄₁, have been selected which give the best estimation performance. The performance statistical analysis of the obtained models shows with the best tuning of the developed monthly prediction model the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.93, 0.99, and 6.02 mm, respectively, which confirms the effectiveness of the developed models.  相似文献   

Role of early warning systems for sustainable agriculture in Iran     

Saeed Sharafi  Mahmud Ramroudi  Mehdi Nasiri  Mohammad Galavi  Gholam Ali Kamali 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(19):734

Drought is a complex phenomenon in meteorology and can affect agriculture. Its impacts vary greatly since they depend not only on the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of rainfall deficits but also on the differing responses of various plants to water stress. The essence of good drought management is to use this range of responses to the best advantage. Iran is one of the world’s largest and most productive suppliers of food and fiber. The objective of this study was, therefore, to gather and analyze standardized information on the Role of Early Warning Systems for Sustainable Agriculture for cereals and leguminous and industrial crops in Iran environmental zones. Annual average rainfall (mm year^?1) and ET_O (mm year^?1) are 76.56 and 3001, respectively, in stations with very dry climate; 195.41 and 2249, respectively, in stations with dry climate; 343.9 and 1351, respectively, in stations with semi-dry climate; 583.8 and 1153, respectively, in stations with semi-humid climate; and 1272 and 949, respectively, in stations with humid climate. The maximum and minimum of annual average rainfall happened in Rasht (1337 mm year^?1) and Zabol (57 mm year^?1) stations, and the maximum and minimum for annual average ET_O happened in Chabahar (3909.15 mm year^?1) and Anzali harbor (890.6 mm year^?1), respectively. Therefore, 13.63 % of stations have suitable conditions for crop productions and 86.37 % are in critical conditions.  相似文献