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71.
热融湖塘对寒区环境可产生较大影响, 其侧向热侵蚀会诱发冻土工程病害.选取青藏工程走廊热融湖塘分布密集的楚玛尔河、五道梁、北麓河3个亚区, 于2009—2010年通过HOBO水位传感器对4个固定湖塘的连续监测和大量湖塘的随机观测, 探讨了不同季节、不同水深湖底的热状态.在结冰期的1月中旬, 楚玛尔河90%以上的湖塘湖底温度都在0 ℃以下, 主要与湖塘较浅和湖水高矿化度有关.五道梁和北麓河湖底温度相对较高, 只有约20%的湖底温度低于0 ℃, 这些湖水深小于最大冻结冰层厚度; 最高温度高于4 ℃, 主要与湖较深有关.但3个亚区湖底温度均随着水深增加而增加.在6~9月融冰期, 湖底温度普遍增加, 最高达到18 ℃以上, 浅湖增温快于深湖, 湖底温度随着水深增加而递减.湖底温度年际变化近似为正弦曲线, 在1~2月, 湖底温度最低, 之后逐渐升高, 到7~8月, 湖底温度达到最高. 相似文献
72.
Mountain streams with their tributary torrents build the upper part of the fluvial network. They are important regarding the transfer of sediment from headwaters to lower basins. Channels are typically steep with wide grain size distributions, ranging from fine sand up to large boulders, and a stabilized bed surface. Mountain streams often are supply-limited with respect to mobile bed load, which needs to be addressed when bed load transport equations are applied to such streams. To better understand supply limitation, laboratory experiments highlighting the effect of bed load supply on incipient motion and bed load transport rate are discussed. Experimental tests were done in which fine bed load was supplied to a previously armored channel bed, with flow conditions ranging from one-third to twice the critical dis-charge for the bed surface. At flows not exceeding the critical discharge, the time series of the bed load transport rate at the downstream model boundary featured consistent patterns which are attributed to distinct phases: (i) a temporal lag, (ii) an equilibrium state, and (iii) a post-supply phase. Bed load transport occurred even at flows distinctly below that for incipient motion of the bed surface. But, with the mass of total bed load outflow approaching the supply amount, the mass did not exclusively consist of supplied grains. The coarser the supplied bed load, the more sediment was mobilized from the bed surface. At higher flows, processes differed. Total bed load outflow exceeded the supply amount and the break-up of the armor layer caused a refining of the bed surface. 相似文献
73.
Seda??alap-Ay?aEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile Piotr?Jankowski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(9):2699-2719
Land use evaluation involves careful consideration of several environmental factors and their relative importance quantified by factor weights. Local multi-criteria evaluation provides a mechanism for computing factor (criteria) weights within local neighborhoods that capture spatial heterogeneity and contribute to more accurate evaluation results. The accuracy of results, however, is tempered by the potential uncertainty of criteria weights. The paper presents a spatially explicit approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of local criteria weights and modeling scale on the variability of model output. The efficacy of the approach is presented on the example of Environmental Benefit Index (EBI) model used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to select environmentally sensitive agricultural areas for conservation. The uncertainty analysis resulted in identifying robust areas for CRP selection characterized by high suitability and low uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis focused on the next-best group of candidates characterized by high suitability and high uncertainty. The results show that there is a relationship between spatial heterogeneity, data representation scale, and the level of uncertainty in the results of EBI model. The sensitivity of model output can be attributed to both the uncertainty of criteria weights and the modeling scale. A potential practical value of this approach is the improved analytical support for land suitability evaluation requiring a consideration of sub-optimal land units (high suitability/high uncertainty). Also, this approach can guide modelling effort by allowing the analyst to visualize spatial distribution and patterns of model output uncertainty and focus data collection on influential model input factors. 相似文献
74.
Ju??KocijanEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile Dejan?Gradi?ar Martin?Stepan?i? Marija?Zlata?Bo?nar Bo?tjan?Gra?i? Primo??Mlakar 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1759-1770
This paper highlights the problem of step-length selection for the one-step-ahead prediction of ozone called the data time interval. This is done using a case study-based comparison of two approaches for predicting the maximum daily values of tropospheric ozone. The first approach is the 1-day-ahead prediction and the second is the prediction of the maximum values based on a multi-step-ahead iteration of 1-h predictions. Gaussian process modelling is utilised for this comparison. In particular, evolving Gaussian-process models are used that update on-line with the incoming measurement data. These sorts of models have been successfully used in the past for the prediction of ozone pollution. This paper contributes an assessment of the way that the maximum ozone values are predicted. A comparison of the daily maximum ozone values forecasted by a model based on 1-day-ahead predictions with those obtained by iterated 1-h-ahead predictions of the ozone with predictions at predetermined hours of the day is given. The forecast results are in favour of the on-line model based on hourly predictions when approaching closer to the real maximum values of ozone, and in favour of the daily predictions when they are made on a daily basis. 相似文献
75.
Ezzeddin?BakhtavarEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile Samuel?Yousefi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(12):3317-3332
This study introduces a method using a multi-goal fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and multi-criteria decision making based on sensitivity analysis to assess the risks associated with working accidents in underground collieries. Safety, stoppage in operation, and operational and capital costs are considered as the main goals during the FCM process with significant emphasis on safety. Workplace accidents data from Kerman underground collieries are statistically evaluated to find the degrees of occurrence probability, severity, and work-disability duration as the main risk factors. The causes and effects of accidents are analyzed using FCM based on three goals and the effects of risk factors. A sensitivity analysis on the weights of the goals is conducted with the aim of increasing the workplace safety in TOPSIS environment after solving the designed multi-goal FCM. Results indicate that “gas poisoning,” “roof fall,” and “debris and destruction” take the first three ranks and impose high risks to the system. By contrast, “collision, hit, and crash” presents the lowest risk among all accidents. 相似文献
76.
J.?Etxeberria T.?Goicoa M.?D.?UgarteEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(10):2951-2969
Joint analyses of two or more related diseases bring advantages over individual studies to look into diseases with low incidence, or to disentangle spatial patterns by age-group and gender. Incidence and/or mortality are not homogeneously distributed according to age-groups and ignoring age may lead to biased estimates. In addition, counts at a very disaggregated level can be very scarce or even zero for rare diseases and powerful models to borrow strength from related processes and geographical areas are strongly recommended. In this paper, gender and age-specific spatial shared component models are proposed for a joint modelling of brain cancer incidence and mortality rates in Navarre and the Basque Country, two regions in the north of Spain with the highest incidence rates among European regions. 相似文献
77.
Slow long-duration events (SLDEs) are flares characterized by the long duration of their rising phase. In many such cases the impulsive phase is weak without typical short-lasting pulses. Instead, smooth, long-lasting hard X-ray (HXR) emission is observed. We analyzed hard X-ray emission and morphology of six selected SLDEs. In our analysis we utilized data from the RHESSI and GOES satellites. The physical parameters of HXR sources were obtained from imaging spectroscopy and were used for the energy balance analysis. The characteristic decay time of the heating rate, after reaching its maximum value, is very long, which explains the long rising phase of these flares. 相似文献
78.
Yal??n?E.?ErsoyEmail author Cahit?Helvac? Martin?R.?Palmer 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2012,163(3):379-401
The western Anatolian volcanic province formed during Eocene to Recent times is one of the major volcanic belts in the Aegean–western
Anatolian region. We present new chemical (whole-rock major and trace elements, and Sr, Nd, Pb and O isotopes) and new Ar/Ar
age data from the Miocene volcanic rocks in the NE–SW-trending Neogene basins that formed on the northern part of the Menderes
Massif during its exhumation as a core complex. The early-middle Miocene volcanic rocks are classified as high-K calc-alkaline
(HKVR), shoshonitic (SHVR) and ultrapotassic (UKVR), with the Late Miocene basalts being transitional between the early-middle
Miocene volcanics and the Na-alkaline Quaternary Kula volcanics (QKV). The early-middle Miocene volcanic rocks are strongly
enriched in large ion lithophile elements (LILE), have high 87Sr/86Sr(i) (0.70631–0.71001), low 143Nd/144Nd(i) (0.512145–0.512488) and high Pb isotope ratios (206Pb/204Pb = 18.838–19.148; 207Pb/204Pb = 15.672–15.725; 208Pb/204Pb = 38.904–39.172). The high field strength element (HFSE) ratios of the most primitive early-middle Miocene volcanic rocks
indicate that they were derived from a mantle source with a primitive mantle (PM)-like composition. The HFSE ratios of the
late Miocene basalts and QKV, on the other hand, indicate an OIB-like mantle origin—a hypothesis that is supported by their
trace element patterns and isotopic compositions. The HFSE ratios of the early-middle Miocene volcanic rocks also indicate
that their mantle source was distinct from those of the Eocene volcanic rocks located further north, and of the other volcanic
provinces in the region. The mantle source of the SHVR and UKVR was influenced by (1) trace element and isotopic enrichment
by subduction-related metasomatic events and (2) trace element enrichment by “multi-stage melting and melt percolation” processes
in the lithospheric mantle. The contemporaneous SHVR and UKVR show little effect of upper crustal contamination. Trace element
ratios of the HKVR indicate that they were derived mainly from lower continental crustal melts which then mixed with mantle-derived
lavas (~20–40%). The HKVR then underwent differentiation from andesites to rhyolites via nearly pure fractional crystallization
processes in the upper crust, such that have undergone a two-stage petrogenetic evolution. 相似文献
79.
Underground mining hazard map including building site categories in an area affected by underground mining activities 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Marian?Marschalko I??k?YilmazEmail author David?Lamich Martin?Bednárik 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(7):2655-2666
The objective of the paper is generation of an underground mining hazard map. The method applied to create the map is based on five categories of areas with different characters of underground mining influence making use of the so-called building site categories. The individual areas with different groups represent various suitability or unsuitability for founding new structures in such influenced territories. They will also reflect a higher or lower degree of influence on already existing structures. Areas affected by underground mining of category V are suitable without any significant restrictions. Areas of the medium category represent influence of building site categories III and IV with economically acceptable measures for founding engineering purposes. The last type is areas with high influence in the category I and II and they are clearly unsuitable for new development. Structures may be founded there in exceptional cases only. This methodology was applied on four map sheets in 1:10,000 scale in a coal mining region in the town of Karviná and its environs in the direction to the City of Ostrava (Czech Republic). Extensive changes caused by underground mining have been identified in the study area and the implementation of the suggested maps may help to deal with the issue in terms of land development by means of land use planning. 相似文献
80.
Time domain reflectometry (TDR) is a highly accurate and automatable method for determination of porous media water content and electrical conductivity. Water content is inferred from the dielectric permittivity of the medium, whereas electrical conductivity is inferred from TDR signal attenuation. Empirical and dielectric mixing models are used to relate water content to measured dielectric permittivity. Clay and organic matter bind substantial amounts of water, such that measured bulk dielectric constant is reduced and the relationship with total water content requires individual calibration. A variety of TDR probe configurations provide users with site‐ and media‐specific options. Advances in TDR technology and in other dielectric methods offer the promise not only for less expensive and more accurate tools for electrical determination of water and solute contents, but also a host of other properties such as specific surface area, and retention properties of porous media. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献