POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION     

MARIANNE V. MOORE  MICHAEL L. PACE  JOHN R. MATHER  PETER S. MURDOCH  ROBERT W. HOWARTH  CAROL L. FOLT  CELIA Y. CHEN  HAROLD F. HEMOND  PATRICIA A. FLEBBE  CHARLES T. DRISCOLL 《水文研究》1997,11(8):925-947

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Phytoplankton and chlorophyll a relationships with ENSO in Prydz Bay,East Antarctica     

ZHANG HaiSheng  HAN ZhengBing  ZHAO Jun  YU PeiSong  HU ChuanYu  SUN WeiPing  Yang Dan  ZHU GenHai  LU Bing  Hans-UIrich PETER  Walter VETTER 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,(12)

The historical data of phytoplankton and chlorophyll a(Chl a)(1990–2002)obtained during the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition(CHINARE)in the Prydz Bay have been integrated.The results showed that the temperature,salinity,nutrients,and oxygen of seawater changed when El Nino/La Nina occurred.The variation of biological communities reflected the response of ecosystem to environmental changes.During El Ni?o period,Chl a concentration and phytoplankton community structure changed significantly,and the relative proportion of diatoms increased while dinoflagellates decreased.During La Ni?a period,the proportion of diatoms decreased,but the golden-brown algae and blue-green algae increased significantly.The variation of phytoplankton population directly affected the biodiversity of the bay,which were also quite sensitive to the marine environment changes.Meanwhile,the satellite remote sensing data of 2002–2011(December–March)have been used to study the temporal connection change of Chl a and phytoplankton in the Prydz Bay.We found that there were significant differences in the monthly variation characteristics of satellite remote sensing Chl a and sea surface temperature(SST),which had some links with sea ice melting and El Ni?o/La Ni?a events.We found that the start time of bloom advanced,lagged or synchronized with the changes of the SST,and we also found the occurrence time of phytoplankton bloom corresponded with the sea ice melting inner bay.To some extent,this study will help us understand the relationships between ENSO events and the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Ocean.  相似文献   

POTENTIAL CROP PRODUCTION     

PETER STRØMGAARD M.Sc. 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):6-12

Stromgaard, Peter: Potential Crop Production—illustrated by an example from West Africa, Geografisk Tidsskrift, 77: 6—12, København, June 1, 1978.

Different ways of describing and modelling the process of primary production are compared, and the concept of potential crop production is elaborated.

Two mathematical models are suggested, converted into FORTRAN IV, and used for an estimation of potential productivity in Ghana.  相似文献   

A modified binary space partitioning tree for geographic information systems     

PETER VAN OOSTEROM 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(2):133-146

We present a reactive data structure, that is, a spatial data structure with detail levels. The two properties, spatial organization and detail levels, are the basis for a geographic information system (GIS) with a multi-scale database. A reactive data structure is a novel type of data structure catering to multiple detail levels with rapid responses to spatial queries. It is presented here as a modification of the binary space partitioning tree that includes the levels of detail. This tree is one of the few spatial data structures that does not organize space in a rectangular manner. A prototype system has been implemented. An important result of this implementation is that it shows that binary space partitioning trees of real maps have O(n) storage space complexity in contrast to the theoretical worst case O(n² ), with n the number of line segments in the map.  相似文献   

Understanding and managing the morphology of branches incising into sand-clay deposits in the Dutch Rhine Delta     

Kees SLOFF  Ary VAN SPIJK  Esther STOUTHAMER  Arjan SIEBEN 《国际泥沙研究》2013,28(2):127-138

In the Rhine-Meuse delta in the south-western part of the Netherlands,the morphology of the river branches is highly dependent on the erodibility of the subsoil.Erosion processes that were initiated after closure of the Haringvliet estuary branch by a dam(in 1970),caused a strong incision of several connecting branches.Due to the geological evolution of this area the lithology of the subsoil shows large variations in highly erodible sand and poorly erodible peat and clay layers.This study shows how the geological information can be used to create 3D maps of the erodibility of the sub-soil, and how this information can be used to schematize the sub-soil in computational models for morphological simulations.Local incisement of sand patches between areas with poorly erodible bed causes deep scour holes,hence increasing the risk on river-bank instability(flow slides) and damage to constructions such as groynes,quays,tunnels, and pipelines.Various types of mathematical models,ranging from 1D(SOBEK) to quasi-3D(Delft3D) have been applied to study the future development of the river bed and possible management options.The results of these approaches demonstrate that models require inclusion of a layer-bookkeeping approach for sub-soil schematization, non-uniform sediment fractions(sand-mud),tidal and river-discharge boundary conditions,and capacity-reduction transport modeling.For risk-reducing river management it has been shown how the development of the river bed can be addressed on a large scale and small scale.For instance,the use of sediment feeding and fixation of bed can be proposed for large-scale management,while monitoring and interventions at initiation of erosion can be proposed as response to small-scale developments that exceed predefined intervention levels.  相似文献   

NOTE ON THE DETAILED ABLATION STUDIES OF 1959 AND 1962 ON THE GREAT ALETSCH GLACIER     

PETER KASSER 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):115-118

Abstract

Stream channel development in response to the eruption of Mount St. Helens on 18 May 1980, resulted in some of the largest sediment yields documented anywhere on earth. Development of new channels on the 2.7 km³ debris-avalanche deposit in the North Fork Toutle River caused net erosion of as much as 1.3 x 10⁵ t km^?2 annually. Development of these channels followed a four-stage sequence of channel initiation, channel incision with relatively constant width-to-depth ratio, channel widening accompanied by aggradation, and channel widening accompanied by scour-and-fill with little change in average channel elevation. These channels remain unstable both in width and elevation. Lahars affected channel and valley morphology on all flanks of the volcano. Steep, upstream reaches generally incised and widened during the first year following the eruption and aggraded during the following three years. Gently sloping downstream reaches aggraded and widened during the first year and incised during the following three years. The most rapid adjustments occurred during the first two winters following the eruption. The principal effect of the blast on channels throughout the 550 km² devastated area was the subsequent rapid delivery of sand- and silt-size sediment eroded from hillslopes. Channels aggraded during early storms of the 1980–1981 winter but incised during later storms the same winter. Subsequent channel enlargement was constrained by logs deposited in channels by the blast and by post-1980 shallow debris slides. Since 1984, instability and sedimentation in laharand blast-affected channels have been within the range of pre-1980 levels.  相似文献   

D) UNITED Nations     

PETER HUTCHINSON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):101-103

Synopsis

In areas of accentuated relief, some of the basic assumptions made in the use of standard methods of assessing areal mean rainfall are often untenable. It is shown in this paper, that, not only does topography affect the actual rainfall distribution, but that the areal variability, measured as the correlation between any two points, is also dependent on the relief. Two methods are used to show this. Once method compares the areal variability of a flat area to one of accentuated relief, while the second method relates areal variability to topographic factors using a multiple regression technique.

The conclusions reached are then used for three purposed. The first is to develop a method of ascribing objectively areas or points to a particular raingauge, taking into account the nature of the terrain. The second is to establish a procedure for estimating the rainfall at ungauged points, by taking into account the rainfall at a selected nearby rainguage and the topographic situation of the points, and the third purpose is to provide means of establishing a correction factor to be applied to a raingauge reading in order that the reading may more accurately represent the area ascribed to it.  相似文献   

Regional precipitation and temperature scenarios for climate change     

ANDRAS BARDOSSY  JAN M. C. VAN MIERLO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):559-575

Abstract

To investigate the consequences of climate change on the water budget in small catchments, it is necessary to know the change of local precipitation and temperature. General Circulation Models (GCM) cannot provide regional climate parameters yet, because of their coarse resolution and imprecise modelling of precipitation. Therefore downscaling of precipitation and temperature has to be carried out from the GCM grids to a small scale of a few square kilometres. Daily rainfall and temperature are modelled as processes conditioned on atmospheric circulation. Rainfall is linked to the circulation patterns (CPs) using conditional probabilities and conditional rainfall amount distribution. Both temperature and precipitation are downscaled to several locations simultaneously taking into account the CP dependent spatial correlation. Temperature is modelled using a simple autoregressive approach, conditioned on atmospheric circulation and local areal precipitation. The model uses the classification scheme of the German Weather Service and a fuzzy rule-based classification. It was applied in the Aller catchment for validation using observed rainfall and temperature, and observed classified geopotential pressure heights. GCM scenarios of the ECHAM model were used to make climate change predictions (using classified GCM geopotential heights); simulated values agree fairly well with historical data. Results for different GCM scenarios are shown.  相似文献   

Contrasting morphodynamics in alluvial fans and fan deltas: effect of the downstream boundary     

MAURITS VAN DIJK  MAARTEN G. KLEINHANS  GEORGE POSTMA  ERIN KRAAL 《Sedimentology》2012,59(7):2125-2145

Alluvial fans and fan deltas can, in principle, have exactly the same upstream conditions, but fan deltas by definition have ponding water at their downstream boundary. This ponding creates effects on the autogenic behaviour of fan deltas, such as backwater adaptation, mouth bars and backward sedimentation, whereas alluvial fans may lack these effects. Hence the present authors hypothesize that morphodynamics on alluvial fans are determined primarily by upstream boundary conditions, whereas morphodynamics on fan deltas are determined by both the upstream and the downstream boundary condition and changes therein. To isolate the effects of the upstream and downstream boundaries, five new alluvial fan experiments are compared with the details of three fan deltas published earlier that were formed under very similar and simple conditions. Similar to the fan deltas, the alluvial fans build up by sheet flow, whilst quasi‐regular periods of incision cause temporary channelized flow. Incision is followed by channel backfilling, after which the fan returns to sheet flow. The channelization and backfilling in alluvial fans is markedly less pronounced and more prone to autogenic disturbance than in fan deltas. The difference is caused by morphodynamics at the downstream boundary. In a fan delta, the flow expansion of the channel causes deposition of all the sediment, which forms a mouth bar and causes strong backfilling. In an alluvial fan, on the other hand, the slope break at the fan perimeter causes some deposition, but transport is not reduced to zero. Consequently, the backfilling in alluvial fans is less pronounced than in fan deltas. Other published experiments support this trend: removal of the mouth bar by a river leads to permanent channelization, whilst pronounced mouth‐bar formation in highly channelized deltas promotes backward sedimentation. The experimental results for this study predict that, when alluvial fans prograde into lakes or deep rivers, they transition to fan deltas with increasingly deeper channels and thicker backfill deposits.  相似文献   

Playa‐lake sedimentation and organic matter accumulation in an Andean piggyback basin: the recent record from the Cuenca de Pozuelos,North‐west Argentina     

MICHAEL M. McGLUE  GEOFFREY S. ELLIS  ANDREW S. COHEN  PETER W. SWARZENSKI 《Sedimentology》2012,59(4):1237-1256

Expansive playa‐lake systems situated in high‐altitude piggyback basins are important and conspicuous components of both modern and ancient cordilleran orogenic systems. Extant playa lakes provide vital habitat for numerous endemic species, whereas sediments from these deposystems may record signals of climate change or develop natural resources over geological time. Laguna de los Pozuelos (North‐west Argentina) provides the opportunity for an actualistic sedimentological and geochemical assessment of a piggyback basin playa lake in an area of critical interest for understanding Quaternary palaeoclimate dynamics. Silty clays and diatom ooze are the dominant playa‐lake centre microfacies, with concentrations of total organic carbon and biogenic silica commonly exceeding 1·5 wt% in this sub‐environment. Elemental and stable isotopic analyses point to a mixed organic matter composition in the playa‐lake centre, with substantial contributions from algae and transported aquatic macrophytes. Bulk sediment and organic mass accumulation rates in the southern playa‐lake centre approach 0·22 g cm^?2 year^?1 and 2·89 mg cm^?2 year^?1, respectively, indicating moderately rapid deposition with negligible deflation over historic time. Playa margin facies contain higher percentages of fragmented biogenic carbonate (ostracods and charophytes) and inorganically precipitated aragonite crusts due to seasonal pumping and evaporation of ground water. Organic matter accumulation is limited along these heavily bioturbated wet and dry mud flats. Fluvial–lacustrine transitional environments, which are key waterbird habitats, are either silty terminal splay (northern axis) or sandy deltas (southern axis) containing highly oxidized and partially allochthonous organic matter. Modern analogue data from Laguna de los Pozuelos provide key insights for: (i) environmental reconstructions of ancient lake sequences; and (ii) improving facies models for piggyback basins.  相似文献