On NAO’s predictability through the DFA method     

R. Caldeira  I. Fernández  J. M. Pacheco 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,96(3-4):221-227

Summary In this paper, the authors address a predictability study of the NAO index by using the time series analysis method known as “detrended fluctuation analysis” (DFA). This technique provides a quantitative measure of predictability by computing several piecewise fits (either linear or higher degree polynomial ones) to the cumulative series of fluctuations associated to the original series. The measurements, made on several examples of data available in the Internet, agree with other previous analyses (Fernández et al, 2003) assessing that the NAO signal is a slightly red one, whose prediction needs a deeper understanding of the underlying physics.  相似文献   

Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield     

Álvaro González  Javier B. Gómez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(2):131-135

The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 M _w = 6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage Time Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five renewal models are emphasized.  相似文献   

The Negative Binomial Distribution as a Renewal Model for the Recurrence of Large Earthquakes     

Alejandro Tejedor  Javier B. Gómez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(1):23-31

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Toward reliable storm-hazard forecasts: XBeach calibration and its potential application in an operational early-warning system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michalis I. Vousdoukas  óscar Ferreira  Luís P. Almeida  André Pacheco 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(7):1001-1015

The study aims to calibrate/validate and apply the dune-erosion model, XBeach, in order to predict morphological response to storm events along a meso-tidal, steeply sloping beach. More than 10,000 XBeach calibration runs, including different model parameters and erosion events, were compared with measurements of beach-profile response to storm conditions. Off-shore wave and tidal measurements were used as input for a SWAN wave model, which was used to provide wave conditions to XBeach. The results indicate that using XBeach to predict beach-profile morphodynamic response during storm events on steeply sloping intermediate-to-reflective beaches may be more demanding than for dissipative beaches and that the default model setup can overestimate dune/beach-face erosion. The performance of the model after calibration was satisfactory, with Brier Skill Scores from 0.2 to 0.72. XBeach was found to be more sensitive to input parameters such as the beach-face slope and the surf similarity parameter ξ (especially for values ξ?>?0.6). The calibrated XBeach setup was used for simulations of storm scenarios with different return periods (5, 25, and 50?years), and the simulations highlighted the fragility of the dune field and the potential for storm-induced dune retreat, lowering, and overwash in the study area. Finally, the nested SWAN/XBeach models were forced by an existing operational wave-forecast WAVEWATCH-III/SWAN model, operated by the Portuguese Hydrographic Institute to generate daily forecasts of storm impact and serve as a prototype-case for an early warning system for storm hazard mitigation.  相似文献   

<Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">G</Emphasis>reen zero-valent iron nanoparticles for the degradation of amoxicillin     

S. Machado  J. G. Pacheco  H. P. A. Nouws  J. T. Albergaria  C. Delerue-Matos 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(5):1109-1118

In the last years, it has been proven that zero-valent iron nanoparticles, including those produced using green methods, are efficient remediation agents for a wide range of target contaminants. However, apart from the known advantages of these green nanomaterials, the knowledge of how they act on distinct contaminants is not yet fully understood and requires further investigation. The objectives of this work were to study the degradation of a common antibiotic, amoxicillin, in water and in a sandy soil using green zero-valent iron nanoparticles (gnZVIs) as reductants and as catalysts for the Fenton reaction. It represents the first study of the use of gnZVI, as alternative for the zero-valent iron nanoparticles produced with sodium borohydride, for the degradation of amoxicillin. The results of the performed tests indicate that gnZVIs have the potential to be used in remediation processes. In both chemical tests, the gnZVI was able to degrade up to 100% of amoxicillin in aqueous solutions, using an amoxicillin/gnZVI molar ratio of 1:15 when applied as a reductant, and an amoxicillin/H₂O₂/gnZVI molar ratio of 1:13:1 when applied as a catalyst for the Fenton reaction. The soil tests showed that the required molar ratios for near complete degradation were higher in the reduction test (1:150) than in the gnZVI-catalyzed Fenton reaction (1:1290:73). This is possibly due to parallel reactions with the soil matrix and/or limitations of the reagents to reach the entire soil sample. The degradation efficiencies obtained in these tests were 55 and 97% for the reduction and catalyzed Fenton processes, respectively.  相似文献   

Two-Way Regionalized Classification of Multivariate Datasets and its Application to the Assessment of Hydrodynamic Dispersion     

Fernando António Leal Pacheco  Paulo Milton Barbosa Landim 《Mathematical Geology》2005,37(4):393-417

Zones of mixing between shallow groundwaters of different composition were unravelled by “two-way regionalized classification,” a technique based on correspondence analysis (CA), cluster analysis (ClA) and discriminant analysis (DA), aided by gridding, map-overlay and contouring tools. The shallow groundwaters are from a granitoid plutonite in the Fundão region (central Portugal). Correspondence analysis detected three natural clusters in the working dataset: 1, weathering; 2, domestic effluents; 3, fertilizers. Cluster analysis set an alternative distribution of the samples by the three clusters. Group memberships obtained by correspondence analysis and by cluster analysis were optimized by discriminant analysis, gridded over the entire Fundão region, and converted into “two-way regionalized classification” memberships as follows: codes 1, 2 or 3 were used when classification by correspondence analysis and cluster analysis produced the same results; code 0 when the grid node was first assigned to cluster 1 and then to cluster 2 or vice versa (mixing between weathering and effluents); code 4 in the other cases (mixing between agriculture and the other influences). Code-3 areas were systematically surrounded by code-4 areas, an observation attributed to hydrodynamic dispersion. Accordingly, the extent of code-4 areas in two orthogonal directions was assumed proportional to the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities of local soils. The results (0.7–16.8 and 0.4–4.3 m, respectively) are acceptable at the macroscopic scale. The ratios between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities (1.2–11.1) are also in agreement with results obtained by other studies.  相似文献   

Time-lapse traveltime change of singly scattered acoustic waves     

C. Pacheco  R. Snieder 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,165(2):485-500

We present a technique based on the single-scattering approximation that relates time-lapse localized changes in the propagation velocity to changes in the traveltime of singly scattered waves. We describe wave propagation in a random medium with homogeneous statistical properties as a single-scattering process where the fluctuations of the velocity with respect to the background velocity are assumed to be weak. This corresponds to one of two end-member regimes of wave propagation in a random medium, the first being single scattering, and the second multiple scattering. We present a formulation that relates the change in the traveltime of the scattered waves to a localized change in the propagation velocity by means of the Born approximation for the scattered wavefield. We validate the methodology with synthetic seismograms calculated with finite differences for 2-D acoustic waves. Potential applications of this technique include non-destructive evaluation of heterogeneous materials and time-lapse monitoring of heterogeneous reservoirs.  相似文献   

Dune bedforms produced by dilute pyroclastic density currents from the August 2006 eruption of Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador     

Guilhem Amin Douillet  Daniel Alejandro Pacheco  Ulrich Kueppers  Jean Letort  Ève Tsang-Hin-Sun  Jorge Bustillos  Minard Hall  Patricio Ramón  Donald B. Dingwell 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2013,75(11):1-20

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Chemical Evolution of Bulges with Nuclear Activity     

T.P. Idiart  R.D.D. Costa  J.A. De Freitas Pacheco 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1999,265(1-4):391-392

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Groundwater Quality: Analysis of Its Temporal and Spatial Variability in a Karst Aquifer   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

Roger Pacheco Castro  Julia Pacheco Ávila  Ming Ye  Armando Cabrera Sansores 《Ground water》2018,56(1):62-72

This study develops an approach based on hierarchical cluster analysis for investigating the spatial and temporal variation of water quality governing processes. The water quality data used in this study were collected in the karst aquifer of Yucatan, Mexico, the only source of drinking water for a population of nearly two million people. Hierarchical cluster analysis was applied to the quality data of all the sampling periods lumped together. This was motivated by the observation that, if water quality does not vary significantly in time, two samples from the same sampling site will belong to the same cluster. The resulting distribution maps of clusters and box‐plots of the major chemical components reveal the spatial and temporal variability of groundwater quality. Principal component analysis was used to verify the results of cluster analysis and to derive the variables that explained most of the variation of the groundwater quality data. Results of this work increase the knowledge about how precipitation and human contamination impact groundwater quality in Yucatan. Spatial variability of groundwater quality in the study area is caused by: a) seawater intrusion and groundwater rich in sulfates at the west and in the coast, b) water rock interactions and the average annual precipitation at the middle and east zones respectively, and c) human contamination present in two localized zones. Changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation cause temporal variation by diluting groundwater in the aquifer. This approach allows to analyze the variation of groundwater quality controlling processes efficiently and simultaneously.  相似文献