Seismic hazard assessment in central Ionian Islands area (Greece) based on stress release models     

Irene Votsi  George M. Tsaklidis  Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou 《Acta Geophysica》2011,59(4):701-727

The long-term probabilistic seismic hazard of central Ionian Islands (Greece) is studied through the application of stress release models. In order to identify statistically distinct regions, the study area is divided into two subareas, namely Kefalonia and Lefkada, on the basis of seismotectonic properties. Previous results evidenced the existence of stress transfer and interaction between the Kefalonia and Lefkada fault segments. For the consideration of stress transfer and interaction, the linked stress release model is applied. A new model is proposed, where the hazard rate function in terms of X(t) has the form of the Weibull distribution. The fitted models are evaluated through residual analysis and the best of them is selected through the Akaike information criterion. Based on AIC, the results demonstrate that the simple stress release model fits the Ionian data better than the non-homogeneous Poisson and the Weibull models. Finally, the thinning simulation method is applied in order to produce simulated data and proceed to forecasting.  相似文献   

Active Faults Affecting Linear Engineering Projects: Examples From Greece     

Th. Rondoyanni  E. Lykoudi  A. Triantafyllou  M. Papadimitriou  I. Foteinos 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2013,31(4):1151-1170

Siting linear engineering projects on or near active faults is usually inevitable in areas of intense seismotectonic activity, such as Greece. To confidently site and mitigate fault rupturing associated hazards, the design and construction of these projects requires knowledge of exact location of active fault traces as well as determination of their characteristics. Detailed investigations of the geological structures were performed along the 500 km-long Athens-Thessaloniki route in mainland Greece, particularly of the potential for surface faulting across or in the vicinity of the most important transportation facilities and lifelines (highway, railway and natural gas pipeline). The identified faults were evaluated and classified as seismic, active and potentially active, on the basis of geologic and geomorphologic evidences of repeated displacements throughout the Quaternary, as well as on the basis of macroseismic data. The map of active faults was compiled, while the magnitude of possible surface displacements along these faults in case of seismic reactivation was estimated. The dominant faults in the study zone are exclusively of normal or oblique-slip character, striking E–W and acting under N–S oriented extensional stresses. It is estimated that many of the numerous active faults which are crossing the Athens-Thessaloniki route and the other linear lifelines are capable of causing a seismic surface displacement up to about 1 m.  相似文献   

A Non-Extensive Statistical Physics View in the Spatiotemporal Properties of the 2003 (Mw6.2) Lefkada,Ionian Island Greece,Aftershock Sequence     

F. Vallianatos  V. Karakostas  E. Papadimitriou 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(7):1343-1354

Investigation of the spatiotemporal properties of the 2003 Lefkada seismic sequence is performed through non-extensive statistical physics. Information on highly accurate aftershock source parameters became feasible from the recordings of a portable digital seismological network that was installed and operated in the study area, during the evolution of the seismic sequence. Thus, the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks onto the main and neighboring fault segments was investigated in detail, enabling the recognition of four distinctive seismicity clusters separated by less active patches. The aftershock spatiotemporal properties are studied here, using the ideas of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances are presented using the data set in each seismicity cluster, and the analysis results in values for the statistical thermodynamic q _T and q _D parameters for each cluster, where q _T varies from 1.16 to 1.47 and q _D from 0.42 to 0.77 for the inter-event times and distances distributions, respectively. These values confirm the complexity and non-additivity of the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity, and the applicability of the NESP approach in investigating aftershocks sequence. The temporal pattern is discussed using the closely connected to NESP approach of superstatistics, which is based on a superposition of ordinary local equilibrium statistical mechanics. The result indicates that the temporal evolution of the Lefkada aftershock sequence in clusters A, B and C is governed by very low number of degrees of freedom, while D is a less organized seismicity structure with a much higher number of degrees of freedom.  相似文献   

Correlation of Static Stress Changes and Earthquake Occurrence in the North Aegean Region     

D. A. Rhoades  E. E. Papadimitriou  V. G. Karakostas  R. Console  M. Murru 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(8-9):1049-1066

A systematic analysis is made of static Coulomb stress changes and earthquake occurrence in the area of the North Aegean Sea, Greece, in order to assess the prospect of using static stress changes to construct a regional earthquake likelihood model. The earthquake data set comprises all events of magnitude M ≥ 5.2 which have occurred since 1964. This is compared to the evolving stress field due to constant tectonic loading and perturbations due to coseismic slip associated with major earthquakes (M ≥ 6.4) over the same period. The stress was resolved for sixteen fault orientation classes, covering the observed focal mechanisms of all earthquakes in the region. Analysis using error diagrams shows that earthquake occurrence is better correlated with the constant tectonic loading component of the stress field than with the total stress field changes since 1964, and that little, if any, information on earthquake occurrence is lost if only the maximum of the tectonic loading over the fault orientation classes is considered. Moreover, the information on earthquake occurrence is actually increased by taking the maximum of the evolving stress field since 1964, and of its coseismic-slip component, over the fault orientation classes. The maximum, over fault orientation classes, of linear combinations of the tectonic loading and the evolving stress field is insignificantly better correlated with earthquake occurrence than the maximum of the tectonic loading by itself. A composite stress-change variable is constructed from ordering of the maximum tectonic loading component and the maximum coseismic-slip component, in order to optimize the correlation with earthquake occurrence. The results indicate that it would be difficult to construct a time-varying earthquake likelihood model from the evolving stress field that is more informative than a time-invariant model based on the constant tectonic loading.  相似文献   

Multi-disciplinary research on geo- and man-made hazards     

Elefteria E. Papadimitriou  Sedat İnan 《Acta Geophysica》2010,58(5):717-718

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断层相互作用对中国川滇地区地震危险评估的意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Ch.Gkarlaouni  V.G.Karakostas  闻学泽  金学申  A.Kilias  潘华 《地震学报》2008,30(2):176-197

研究了1904年以来发生在中国四川、云南地区的强烈地震所伴生的库仑应力变化. 研究区涉及了中国大陆最活动的地震带. 由于欧亚板块与印度板块沿喜马拉雅会聚带的碰撞, 菱形区域的构造运动受到西藏高原向东扩展的影响,在东——西方向上受到主要板内走滑断裂运动的调节. 在研究区,断层顺时针逐步旋转,转动角达90deg;, 造成了应力场的复杂性. 计算了由强地震(MSge;6.5) 的同震滑动和连续构造加载在主要断裂上产生的库仑破裂函数变化(Delta;CFF). 在应力评估模型的每一步, 对是否能触发下一次地震的可能性都进行了判断. 最后,模型给出了下一次地震中断层易于破裂的证据,对未来危险性进行了评估.   相似文献   

Microseismicity and focal mechanisms at the western termination of the North Anatolian Fault and their implications for continental tectonics   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Denis Hatzfeld  Maria Ziazia  Despina Kementzetzidou  Panayotis Hatzidimitriou  Dimitris Panagiotopoulos  Kostas Makropoulos  Panayotis Papadimitriou  & Anne Deschamps 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,137(3):891-908

For seven weeks, a temporary network of 68 seismological stations was operated in Central Greece, in the region of Thessaly and Evia, located at the western termination of the North Anatolian Fault system. We recorded 510 earthquakes and computed 80 focal mechanisms. Seismic activity is associated with the NE–SW dextral North Aegean Fault, or with very young E–W-striking normal faults that are located around the Gulf of Volos and the Gulf of Lamia. The important NW–SE-striking faults bounding the Pilion, or the basins of Larissa and Karditsa, are not seismically active, suggesting that it is easier to break continental crust, creating new faults perpendicular to the principal stresses, than to reactivate faults that strike obliquely to the principal stress axes  相似文献   

A probabilistic approach to structural model updating   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Lambros S. Katafygiotis  Costas Papadimitriou  Heung-Fai Lam 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1998,17(7-8):495-507

The problem of updating a structural model and its associated uncertainties by utilizing measured dynamic response data is addressed. A Bayesian probabilistic formulation is followed to obtain the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the uncertain model parameters for given measured data. The present paper discusses the issue of identifiability of the model parameters and reviews existing asymptotic approximations for identifiable cases. The focus of the paper is on the treatment of the general unidentifiable case where the earlier approximations are not applicable. In this case the posterior PDF of the parameters is found to be concentrated in the neighborhood of an extended and extremely complex manifold in the parameter space. The computational difficulties associated with calculating the posterior PDF in such cases are discussed and an algorithm for an efficient approximate representation of the above manifold and the posterior PDF is presented. Numerical examples involving noisy data are presented to demonstrate the concepts and the proposed method.  相似文献   

A geographical information system managing geotechnical data for Athens (Greece) and its use for automated seismic microzonation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

A. A. Antoniou  A. G. Papadimitriou  G. Tsiambaos 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):369-395

This article presents a geographical information system (GIS) which manages geotechnical data obtained from detailed geotechnical surveys as well as from in situ observations in Athens, Greece. Thoroughly examined data from more than 2,000 exploratory boreholes and trial pits located in the wider area of Athens have been incorporated using a relational database system. From the analysis of these results, thematic maps are compiled to illustrate the distribution of engineering geological information (e.g. the depth of the “Athens schist” head). In addition, a methodology for an automated GIS-aided seismic microzonation study is outlined and is being employed taking into account the aforementioned geotechnical and engineering geological information, as well as existing seismological data to estimate the variability of seismic ground motion for the southern part of Athens.  相似文献   

The Mw6.7 12 October 2013 western Hellenic Arc main shock and its aftershock sequence: implications for the slab properties     

Eleftheria Papadimitriou  Vassilis Karakostas  Maria Mesimeri  Filippos Vallianatos 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(7):2149-2160

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