Statistical tools for earthquake and mining seismology     

George M. Tsaklidis  Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou  Nikolaos Limnios 《Acta Geophysica》2011,59(4):657-658

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Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation performance of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical experiments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. G. Koutroulis  M. G. Grillakis  I. K. Tsanis  L. Papadimitriou 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(5-6):1881-1898

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Correction to: Earthquake recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes in the North Aegean Trough (Greece)     

Christos Kourouklas  Eleftheria Papadimitriou  George Tsaklidis  Vassilios Karakostas 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(5):1247-1247

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Regional time-predictable modeling in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas region     

D. Shanker  E.E. Papadimitriou 《Tectonophysics》2004,390(1-4):129-140

The seismic characteristic of Hindukush–Pamir–Himalaya (HPH) and its vicinity is very peculiar and has experienced many widely distributed large earthquakes. Recent work on the time-dependent seismicity in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”, which is expressed by the relation log T=cM_p+a, where T is the inter-event time between two successive main shocks of a region and M_p is the magnitude of the preceded main shock. Parameter a is a function of the magnitude of the minimum earthquake considered and of the tectonic loading and c is positive (0.3) constant. In 90% of the cases with sufficient data, parameter c was found to be positive, which strongly supports the validity of the model. In the present study, a different approach, which assumes no prior regionalization of the area, is attempted to check the validity of the model. Nine seismic sources were defined within the considered region and the inter-event time of strong shallow main shock were determined and used for each source in an attempt at long-term prediction, which show the clustering and occurrence of at least three earthquakes of magnitude 5.5≤M_s≤7.5 giving two repeat times, satisfying the necessary and sufficient conditions of time-predictable model (TP model). Further, using the global applicability of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, the following relations have been obtained: log T_t=0.19 M_min+0.52M_p+0.29 log m₀−10.63 and M_f=1.31M_min−0.60M_p−0.72 log m₀+21.01, where T_t is the inter-event time, measured in years; M_min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered; M_p the magnitude of preceding main shock; M_f the magnitude of the following main shock; and m₀ the moment rate in each source per year.

These relations may be used for seismic hazard assessment in the region. Based on these relations and taking into account the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the last main shock in each seismogenic source, time-dependent conditional probabilities for the occurrence of the next large (M_s≥5.5) shallow main shocks during the next 20 years as well as the magnitudes of the expected main shocks are determined.  相似文献   

Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ): the western extension of the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake fault (Northern Greece) and seismic hazard assessment     

Markos D. Tranos  Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou  Adamantios A. Kilias 《Journal of Structural Geology》2003,25(12):2109-2123

Active faulting and seismic properties are re-investigated in the eastern precinct of the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece), which was seriously affected by two large earthquakes during the 20th century and severe damage was done by the 1759 event. It is suggested that the earthquake fault associated with the occurrence of the latest destructive 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake continues westwards to the 20-km-long Thessaloniki–Gerakarou Fault Zone (TGFZ), which extends from the Gerakarou village to the city of Thessaloniki. This fault zone exhibits a constant dip to the N and is characterised by a complicated geometry comprised of inherited 100°-trending faults that form multi-level branching (tree-like fault geometry) along with NNE- to NE-trending faults. The TGFZ is compatible with the contemporary regional N–S extensional stress field that tends to modify the pre-existing NW–SE tectonic fabric prevailing in the mountainous region of Thessaloniki. Both the 1978 earthquake fault and TGFZ belong to a ca. 65-km-long E–W-trending rupture fault system that runs through the southern part of the Mygdonia graben from the Strymonikos gulf to Thessaloniki. This fault system, here called Thessaloniki–Rentina Fault System (TRFS), consists of two 17–20-km-long left-stepping 100°-trending main fault strands that form underlapping steps bridged by 8–10-km-long ENE–WSW faults. The occurrence of large (M6.0) historical earthquakes (in 620, 677 and 700 A.D.) demonstrates repeated activation, and therefore the possible reactivation of the westernmost segment, the TGFZ, could be a major threat to the city of Thessaloniki. Changes in the Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) due to the occurrence of the 1978 earthquake calculated out in this paper indicate that the TGFZ has been brought closer to failure, a convincing argument for future seismic hazard along the TGFZ.  相似文献   

Seismic source-parameter relations for earthquakes in Greece     

A. A. Kiratzi  G. F. Karakaisis  E. E. Papadimitriou  B. C. Papazachos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1985,123(1):27-41

A data set of nineteen, mainly shallow, moderate to large earthquakes, which occurred in the Aegean and the surrounding area, has been used to derive empirical relations for kinematic fault parameters. Thus the relations between seismic momentM ₀ and magnitudeM _s andm _b and betweenM ₀ andM _s and fault dimensionsS andL have been determined. From these relations and theoretical ones it was deduced that earthquakes in the Aegean and the surrounding events, chiefly interplate, are characterized by low average stress drop values. Values of ranging from 1 to 30 bar are consistent with the data. It was also found that, in general terms, most of the data obey the geometrical similarity conditionL=2w, whereL is the fault length measured along the strike andw is its width measured along the dip. For strike-slip faults, however, the conditionL=4w seems to hold.  相似文献   

Long-term earthquake prediction along the western coast of South and Central America based on a time predictable model     

Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,140(2):301-316

The repeat times,T, of strong shallow mainshocks in fourteen seismogenic sources along the western coast of South and Central America have been determined and used in an attempt at long-term forecasting. The following relation was determined: $$\log T = 0.22M_{\min } + 0.21M_p + a$$ between the repeat time,T, and the magnitudes,M _min, of the minimum mainshock considered andM _p , of the preceding mainshock. No dependence of the magnitude,M _f , of the following mainshock on the preceding intervent time,T, was found. These results support the idea that the time-predictable model is valid for this region. This is an interesting property for earthquake prediction since it provides the ability to predict the time of occurrence of the next strong earthquake. A strong negative dependence ofM _f onM _p was found, indicating that a large mainshock is followed by a smaller magnitude one, andvice versa. The probability for the occurrence of the expected strong mainshocks (M _s ≥7.5) in each of the fourteen seismogenic sources during the next 10 years (1992–2002) is estimated, adopting a lognormal distribution for earthquake interevent times. High probabilities (P ₁₀>0.80) have been calculated for the seismogenic sources of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Southern Peru.  相似文献   

Seasonally Accumulation of Microcystins in the Various Tissues of an Endemic and Protected Fish Species (Rutilus panosi) with Different Sizes     

Theodoti Papadimitriou  Ifigenia Kagalou  Ioannis D. Leonardos 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2012,40(4):402-407

The present study was undertaken to investigate the accumulation of microcystins (MCYST) in the various tissues of an endemic and protected fish species (Rutilus panosi). We also tried to identify any differences in sensitivity and accumulation of MCYST, for various specimens of the same fish species related to body length. MCYST concentrations in lake water and fish tissues were determined by a commercial Microcystin ELISA kit. Results showed that considerable amount of toxins were found to be accumulated in tissues of R. panosi throughout the year. Among them, liver had the highest MCYST concentrations (407.97 ± 32.43 ng/g). This study confirmed the accumulation of high MCYST concentrations in fish brain (308.75 ± 26.49 ng/g). Our results suggest, that MCYST accumulation in R. panosi tissues is size depended. High MCYST concentration in the muscle of the fish increases the risk of unsafe consumption, thus threatening human health.  相似文献   

Rupture model of the great AD 365 Crete earthquake in the southwestern part of the Hellenic Arc     

Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou  Vassilios G. Karakostas 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(2):293-312

An M8.3 earthquake struck the southwestern part of the Hellenic Arc, near the Island of Crete, in AD 365, generating a tsunami that affected almost the entire eastern Mediterranean region. Taking into account that the time history of seismicity in this region is fairly complete for such earthquakes in the historical catalog, which can be dated as back as the 5th century B.C., there is no indication that this segment of plate boundary has been fully ruptured again. The seismic hazard associated with this part of the Hellenic Arc necessitates the evaluation of the rupture characteristics of this great event. The constraint of the faulting geometry was initially achieved by using information from seismicity, and the focal mechanisms of earthquakes that occurred during the instrumental period. A rupture model for this great earthquake is constructed by assuming an elastic medium and calculating the theoretical surface displacements for various fault models that are matched with the observed surface deformation gleaned from historical reports. The resulted fault model concerns thrust faulting with a rupture length of 160 km and a seismic moment of 5.7 × 10²⁸ dyn·cm, an average slip of 8.9 m and a corresponding moment magnitude equal to 8.4, in excellent agreement with the macroseismic estimation. The absence of such events recurrence is an indication of the lack of complete seismic coupling that is common in subduction zones, which is in accordance with the back arc spreading of the Aegean microplate and with previous results showing low coupling for extensional strain of the upper plate.  相似文献   

A study of the interaction among mining-induced seismic events in the Legnica-Głogów Copper District,Poland     

Beata Orlecka-Sikora  Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou  Grzegorz Kwiatek 《Acta Geophysica》2009,57(2):413-434

We applied the Coulomb stress transfer technique to investigate interactions among seismic events induced by mining works in the Rudna mine in the Legnica-Glogów Copper District in Poland. We considered events with energy greater than 10⁵ J from the period 1993–1999. We examined the influence of the cumulative static stress changes (ΔCFF) due to previous events on the generation of subsequent ones. The results indicate that in many cases strong mining tremors produce changes in the state of stress of a sufficient magnitude to influence subsequent events. The location of over 60% of events is consistent with stress-enhanced areas where the values of ΔCFF were above 0.01 MPa. For most of the events located inside areas of a calculated negative ΔCFF, their modelled rupture zone was partially located inside stress enhanced area, providing thus additional evidence for possible triggering at the nucleation point.  相似文献