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81.
Seismic Hazard Evaluation in Western Turkey as Revealed by Stress Transfer and Time-dependent Probability Calculations 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
P. M. Paradisopoulou E. E. Papadimitriou V. G. Karakostas T. Taymaz A. Kilias S. Yolsal 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(8-9):1013-1048
Western Turkey has a long history of destructive earthquakes that are responsible for the death of thousands of people and which caused devastating damage to the existing infrastructures, and cultural and historical monuments. The recent earthquakes of Izmit (Kocaeli) on 17 August, 1999 (M w = 7.4) and Düzce (M w = 7.2) on 12 November, 1999, which occurred in the neighboring fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), were catastrophic ones for the Marmara region and surroundings in NW Turkey. Stress transfer between the two adjacent fault segments successfully explained the temporal proximity of these events. Similar evidence is also provided from recent studies dealing with successive strong events occurrence along the NAF and parts of the Aegean Sea; in that changes in the stress field due to the coseismic displacement of the stronger events influence the occurrence of the next events of comparable size by advancing their occurrence time and delimiting their occurrence place. In the present study the evolution of the stress field since the beginning of the twentieth century in the territory of the eastern Aegean Sea and western Turkey is examined, in an attempt to test whether the history of cumulative changes in stress can explain the spatial and temporal occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in this area. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in elastic half space, taking into account both the coseismic slip in large (M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip and normal faults. In each stage of the evolutionary model the stress field is calculated according to the strike, dip, and rake angles of the next large event, whose triggering is inspected, and the possible sites for future strong earthquakes can be assessed. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards is given by translating the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. 相似文献
82.
Structural identification based on measured dynamic data is formulated in a multi‐objective context that allows the simultaneous minimization of the various objectives related to the fit between measured and model predicted data. Thus, the need for using arbitrary weighting factors for weighting the relative importance of each objective is eliminated. For conflicting objectives there is no longer one solution but rather a whole set of acceptable compromise solutions, known as Pareto solutions, which are optimal in the sense that they cannot be improved in any objective without causing degradation in at least one other objective. The strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm is used to estimate the set of Pareto optimal structural models and the corresponding Pareto front. The multi‐objective structural identification framework is presented for linear models and measured data consisting of modal frequencies and modeshapes. The applicability of the framework to non‐linear model identification is also addressed. The framework is illustrated by identifying the Pareto optimal models for a scaled laboratory building structure using experimentally obtained modal data. A large variability in the Pareto optimal structural models is observed. It is demonstrated that the structural reliability predictions computed from the identified Pareto optimal models may vary considerably. The proposed methodology can be used to explore the variability in such predictions and provide updated structural safety assessments, taking into consideration all Pareto structural models that are consistent with the measured data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
83.
E. Papadimitriou V. Karakostas M. Tranos B. Ranguelov D. Gospodinov 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2007,96(5):911-924
Activation of major faults in Bulgaria and northern Greece presents significant seismic hazard because of their proximity
to populated centers. The long recurrence intervals, of the order of several hundred years as suggested by previous investigations,
imply that the twentieth century activation along the southern boundary of the sub-Balkan graben system, is probably associated
with stress transfer among neighbouring faults or fault segments. Fault interaction is investigated through elastic stress
transfer among strong main shocks (M ≥ 6.0), and in three cases their foreshocks, which ruptured distinct or adjacent normal fault segments. We compute stress
perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half-space. The stress change calculations were performed
for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We explore the interaction between normal faults in
the study area by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) since 1904 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 100 years. Coulomb stress changes were
calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account
both the coseismic slip in strong earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. We
evaluate if these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. Our modeling
results show that the generation of each strong event enhanced the Coulomb stress on along-strike neighbors and reduced the
stress on parallel normal faults. We extend the stress calculations up to present and provide an assessment for future seismic
hazard by identifying possible sites of impending strong earthquakes. 相似文献
84.
A large earthquake of magnitude MW = 6.3 occurred on 14 August 2003 NW of the Lefkada Island, which is situated at the Ionian Sea (western Greece). The source parameters of this event are determined using body-wave modeling. The focal depth was found equal to 9 km, the constrained focal mechanism revealed dextral strike–slip motion (φ = 15°, Δ = 80° and λ = 170°), the duration of the source time function was 8 s and the seismic moment 2.9 × 1025 dyn cm. The earthquake occurred close to the northern end of the Kefallinia transform fault, where the 1994 moderate event and its aftershock sequence were also located. The epicentral distribution of the 2003 aftershock sequence revealed the existence of two clusters. The first one is located close to the epicentral area of the mainshock, while the second southern, close to the northwestern coast of the Kefallinia Island. A gap of seismicity is observed between the two clusters. The length of the activated zone is approximately 60 km. The analysis of data revealed that the northern cluster is directly related to the mainshock, while the southern one was triggered by stress transfer caused by the main event. 相似文献
85.
Seismicity, deformation and seismic hazard in the western rift of Corinth: New insights from the Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL) 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
P. Bernard H. Lyon-Caen P. Briole A. Deschamps F. Boudin K. Makropoulos P. Papadimitriou F. Lemeille G. Patau H. Billiris D. Paradissis K. Papazissi H. Castarde O. Charade A. Nercessian A. Avallone F. Pacchiani J. Zahradnik S. Sacks A. Linde 《Tectonophysics》2006,426(1-2):7
This paper presents the main recent results obtained by the seismological and geophysical monitoring arrays in operation in the rift of Corinth, Greece. The Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL) is set up near the western end of the rift, where instrumental seismicity and strain rate is highest. The seismicity is clustered between 5 and 10 km, defining an active layer, gently dipping north, on which the main normal faults, mostly dipping north, are rooting. It may be interpreted as a detachment zone, possibly related to the Phyllade thrust nappe. Young, active normal faults connecting the Aigion to the Psathopyrgos faults seem to control the spatial distribution of the microseismicity. This seismic activity is interpreted as a seismic creep from GPS measurements, which shows evidence for fast continuous slip on the deepest part on the detachment zone. Offshore, either the shallowest part of the faults is creeping, or the strain is relaxed in the shallow sediments, as inferred from the large NS strain gradient reported by GPS. The predicted subsidence of the central part of the rift is well fitted by the new continuous GPS measurements. The location of shallow earthquakes (between 5 and 3.5 km in depth) recorded on the on-shore Helike and Aigion faults are compatible with 50° and 60° mean dip angles, respectively. The offshore faults also show indirect evidence for high dip angles. This strongly differs from the low dip values reported for active faults more to the east of the rift, suggesting a significant structural or rheological change, possibly related to the hypothetical presence of the Phyllade nappe. Large seismic swarms, lasting weeks to months, seem to activate recent synrift as well as pre-rift faults. Most of the faults of the investigated area are in their latest part of cycle, so that the probability of at least one moderate to large earthquake (M = 6 to 6.7) is very high within a few decades. Furthermore, the region west to Aigion is likely to be in an accelerated state of extension, possibly 2 to 3 times its mean interseismic value. High resolution strain measurement, with a borehole dilatometer and long base hydrostatic tiltmeters, started end of 2002. A transient strain has been recorded by the dilatometer, lasting one hour, coincident with a local magnitude 3.7 earthquake. It is most probably associated with a slow slip event of magnitude around 5 ± 0.5. The pore pressure data from the 1 km deep AIG10 borehole, crossing the Aigion fault at depth, shows a 1 MPa overpressure and a large sensitivity to crustal strain changes. 相似文献
86.
Application of the stress evolutionary model along the Xiaojiang fault zone in Yunnan Province,Southeast China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Parthena M. Paradisopoulou Charikleia G. Garlaouni Xueshen Jin Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou Vasileios G. Karakostas Jialiang Yang 《Acta Geophysica》2007,55(4):577-593
The Xiaojiang fault zone constitutes part of the major Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang left lateral structure that bounds the rhombic-shaped
block of Yunnan-Sichuan to the east. Long strike slip fault zones that have repeatedly accommodated intense seismic activity,
constitute a basic feature of southeast China. Known historical earthquakes to have struck the study area are the 1713 Xundian
of M6.8, 1725 Wanshou mountain of M6.8, the 1733 Dongchuan of M7.8, and the strongest one, the 1833 Songming of M8.0. Although instrumental record did not report events of this magnitude class, the 18th century clustering as well as the
19th century large event prompted the investigation of stress transfer along this fault zone. Coulomb stress changes were
calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account
both the coseismic slip in strong (M ≥ 6.8) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. Geological and geodetic data are
used to infer the geometry of these faults and long term slip rates on them, as well as for the fault segments that slipped.
Evidence is presented that the strong historical events as well as the ones of smaller magnitude that occurred during the
instrumental era, are located in areas where the static stress was enhanced. By extending the calculations up to present,
possible sites for future strong events are identified. 相似文献