An ordered probit model for seismic intensity data     

Michela?CamelettiEmail author  Valerio?De Rubeis  Clarissa?Ferrari  Paola?Sbarra  Patrizia?Tosi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1593-1602

Seismic intensity, measured through the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, provides an assessment of ground shaking level deduced from building damages, any natural environment changes and from any observed effects or feelings. Generally, moving away from the earthquake epicentre, the effects are lower but intensities may vary in space, as there could be areas that amplify or reduce the shaking depending on the earthquake source geometry, geological features and local factors. Currently, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia analyzes, for each seismic event, intensity data collected through the online macroseismic questionnaire available at the web-page www.haisentitoilterremoto.it. Questionnaire responses are aggregated at the municipality level and analyzed to obtain an intensity defined on an ordinal categorical scale. The main aim of this work is to model macroseismic attenuation and obtain an intensity prediction equation which describes the decay of macroseismic intensity as a function of the magnitude and distance from the hypocentre. To do this we employ an ordered probit model, assuming that the intensity response variable is related through the link probit function to some predictors. Differently from what it is commonly done in the macroseismic literature, this approach takes properly into account the qualitative and ordinal nature of the macroseismic intensity as defined on the MCS scale. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the posterior probability of the intensity at each site. Moreover, by comparing observed and estimated intensities we are able to detect anomalous areas in terms of residuals. This kind of information can be useful for a better assessment of seismic risk and for promoting effective policies to reduce major damages.  相似文献   

Origin and evolution of the atmospheres of early Venus,Earth and Mars     

Helmut Lammer  Aubrey L. Zerkle  Stefanie Gebauer  Nicola Tosi  Lena Noack  Manuel Scherf  Elke Pilat-Lohinger  Manuel Güdel  John Lee Grenfell  Mareike Godolt  Athanasia Nikolaou 《Astronomy and Astrophysics Review》2018,26(1):2

We review the origin and evolution of the atmospheres of Earth, Venus and Mars from the time when their accreting bodies were released from the protoplanetary disk a few million years after the origin of the Sun. If the accreting planetary cores reached masses \(\ge 0.5 M_\mathrm{Earth}\) before the gas in the disk disappeared, primordial atmospheres consisting mainly of H\(_2\) form around the young planetary body, contrary to late-stage planet formation, where terrestrial planets accrete material after the nebula phase of the disk. The differences between these two scenarios are explored by investigating non-radiogenic atmospheric noble gas isotope anomalies observed on the three terrestrial planets. The role of the young Sun’s more efficient EUV radiation and of the plasma environment into the escape of early atmospheres is also addressed. We discuss the catastrophic outgassing of volatiles and the formation and cooling of steam atmospheres after the solidification of magma oceans and we describe the geochemical evidence for additional delivery of volatile-rich chondritic materials during the main stages of terrestrial planet formation. The evolution scenario of early Earth is then compared with the atmospheric evolution of planets where no active plate tectonics emerged like on Venus and Mars. We look at the diversity between early Earth, Venus and Mars, which is found to be related to their differing geochemical, geodynamical and geophysical conditions, including plate tectonics, crust and mantle oxidation processes and their involvement in degassing processes of secondary \(\hbox {N}_2\) atmospheres. The buildup of atmospheric \(\hbox {N}_2\), \(\hbox {O}_2\), and the role of greenhouse gases such as \(\hbox {CO}_2\) and \(\hbox {CH}_4\) to counter the Faint Young Sun Paradox (FYSP), when the earliest life forms on Earth originated until the Great Oxidation Event \(\approx \) 2.3 Gyr ago, are addressed. This review concludes with a discussion on the implications of understanding Earth’s geophysical and related atmospheric evolution in relation to the discovery of potential habitable terrestrial exoplanets.  相似文献   

Geologic constraints on the origin of red organic‐rich material on Ceres          下载免费PDF全文

C. M. Pieters  A. Nathues  G. Thangjam  M. Hoffmann  T. Platz  M. C. de Sanctis  E. Ammannito  F. Tosi  F. Zambon  J. H. Pasckert  H. Hiesinger  S. E. Schröder  R. Jaumann  K.‐D. Matz  J. C. Castillo‐Rogez  O. Ruesch  L. A. McFadden  D. P. O'Brien  M. Sykes  C. A. Raymond  C. T. Russell 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(9):1983-1998

The geologic context of red organic‐rich materials (ROR) found across an elongated 200 km region on Ceres is evaluated with spectral information from the multispectral framing camera (FC) and the visible and near‐infrared mapping spectrometer (VIR) of Dawn. Discrete areas of ROR materials are found to be associated with small fresh craters less than a few hundred meters in diameter. Regions with the highest concentration of discrete ROR areas exhibit a weaker diffuse background of ROR materials. The observed pattern could be consistent with a field of secondary impacts, but no appropriate primary crater has been found. Both endogenic and exogenic sources are being considered for these distinctive organic materials.  相似文献