Hidden staircase signal in recent climate dynamic     

Pavel Belolipetsky  Sergey Bartsev  Yuliya Ivanova  Mikhail Saltykov 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2015,51(4):323-330

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Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michelle T.H. van Vliet  Wietse H.P. Franssen  John R. Yearsley  Fulco Ludwig  Ingjerd Haddeland  Dennis P. Lettenmaier  Pavel Kabat 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):450-464

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for freshwater ecosystems and water use sectors. We used a global physically based hydrological-water temperature modelling framework forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenario. This resulted in global projections of daily river discharge and water temperature under future climate. Our results show an increase in the seasonality of river discharge (both increase in high flow and decrease in low flow) for about one-third of the global land surface area for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000. Global mean and high (95th percentile) river water temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8–1.6 (1.0–2.2) °C for the SRES B1–A2 scenario for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for the United States, Europe, eastern China, and parts of southern Africa and Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities are exacerbated by projected decreases in low flows (resulting in a reduced thermal capacity). For strongly seasonal rivers with highest water temperatures during the low flow period, up to 26% of the increases in high (95th percentile) water temperature can be attributed indirectly to low flow changes, and the largest fraction is attributable directly to increased atmospheric energy input. A combination of large increases in river temperature and decreases in low flows are projected for the southeastern United States, Europe, eastern China, southern Africa and southern Australia. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for human uses such as thermoelectric power and drinking water production.  相似文献   

Risk occurrences of damaging frosts during the growing season of vegetables in the Elbe River lowland,the Czech Republic     

Vera Potop  Pavel Zahraniček  Luboš Türkott  Petr Štěpánek  Josef Soukup 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(1):1-19

This study has, for the first time, analysed in detail the risk occurrences of the last spring frost, first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period during the growing season of vegetable crops at a high horizontal resolution of 10 km in the Elbe River lowland in the Czech Republic. The daily minimum air temperature from 116 grid points throughout the studied area for the period 1961–2011 was used. The daily values of minimum air temperature ranges of 0 to ?1.1 °C, ?1.2 to ?2.2 °C and below ?2.2 °C were considered to constitute mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the last spring frost, the date of the first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period in the Elbe River lowland is provided. Secondly, the estimation of the probability of a later date in the spring and an earlier date in the fall for various severe frost events and the length of the frost-free period is determined. Third, the changes in the timing of the last and first frosts of the three severities, as well as the length of the frost-free period, are evaluated. From 1961 to 2011, the Elbe River lowland has experienced a decrease in the number of frost days, while the length of the frost-free period between the last spring frost and the first fall frost has increased. The temporal evolution of the frost-free period anomalies displays two distinct periods: a shortening of the frost-free period in the 1960s and an intensified lengthening of the frost-free period since the 1980s. Whereas the latest spring frost has ended on an earlier date across the Elbe River lowland, the first frost date in the fall has generally been delayed to a later date. The dates of the last spring frost have advanced by ?0.21 days per year on average. The fall dates are delayed up to 0.18 days per year, whereas the frost-free period is lengthening by up to 0.39 days per year on average. However, regional frost series suggests that the frost-free period exhibits a large amount of inter-annual variability. In terms of the growth of field vegetables, a late spring frost remains a risk factor, but the degree of risk has decreased. There is a 25 % chance of the occurrence of dangerous spring frosts during the planting of field vegetables after 3rd May, but after 15th May, the risk is only 10 %.  相似文献   

南极冰层钻进铠装钻具升降运动特性分析与试验   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

宋佳宇  徐会文  韩丽丽  刘宁  Pavel Talalay 《探矿工程》2014,41(7):12-15

极地冰层取心钻具的升降运动特性对提高钻进效率、减少孔内事故具有重要影响。在总结极地冰钻特点的基础上,分析了钻孔直径、钻具质量和钻井液的流变特性对钻具在升降过程中的影响,钻具在钻孔过程中运动的两阶段特性、滞流层的存在与影响因素,确定了因钻具的运动所引起的流体扰动量与扰动范围。研制了用于测试铠装电缆悬挂式钻具升降测试试验台和测试的方法,通过对3个不同直径与3个不同质量的钻具在其下落过程的实际测试,得出了钻具下落速度与直径呈二次方关系,与钻具的质量成线性关系的结论。  相似文献   

Impact of spatial correlation of ground motions on seismic damage for residential buildings in Bucharest,Romania     

Pavel  Florin  Vacareanu  Radu  Calotescu  Ileana  Sandulescu  Ana-Maria  Arion  Cristian  Neagu  Cristian 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(2):1167-1187

Natural Hazards - This paper focuses on the investigation of seismic risk for residential buildings situated in Bucharest, the capital city of Romania. With a population of nearly 2 million...  相似文献   

Long-lasting Cadomian magmatic activity along an active northern Gondwana margin: U–Pb zircon and Sr–Nd isotopic evidence from the Brunovistulian Domain,eastern Bohemian Massif     

Soejono  Igor  Janoušek  Vojtěch  Žáčková  Eliška  Sláma  Jiří  Konopásek  Jiří  Machek  Matěj  Hanžl  Pavel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2017,106(6):2109-2129

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Cadomian magmatic complexes of the Brunovistulian Domain crop out at the eastern termination of the Bohemian Massif. However, the age, nature and...  相似文献   

Isothermal compression of an eclogite from the Western Gneiss Region (Norway)     

Martin Simon  Pavel Pitra  Philippe Yamato  Marc Poujol 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2023,41(1):181-203

In the Western Gneiss Region in Norway, mafic eclogites form lenses within granitoid orthogneiss and contain the best record of the pressure and temperature evolution of this ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) terrane. Their exhumation from the UHP conditions has been extensively studied, but their prograde evolution has been rarely quantified although it represents a key constraint for the tectonic history of this area. This study focused on a well-preserved phengite-bearing eclogite sample from the Nordfjord region. The sample was investigated using phase-equilibrium modelling, trace-element analyses of garnet, trace- and major-element thermobarometry and quartz-in-garnet barometry by Raman spectroscopy. Inclusions in garnet core point to crystallization conditions in the amphibolite facies at 510–600°C and 11–16 kbar, whereas chemical zoning in garnet suggests growth during isothermal compression up to the peak pressure of 28 kbar at 600°C, followed by near-isobaric heating to 660–680°C. Near-isothermal decompression to 10–14 kbar is recorded in fine-grained clinopyroxene–amphibole–plagioclase symplectites. The absence of a temperature increase during compression seems incompatible with the classic view of crystallization along a geothermal gradient in a subduction zone and may question the tectonic significance of eclogite facies metamorphism. Two end-member tectonic scenarios are proposed to explain such an isothermal compression: Either (1) the mafic rocks were originally at depth within the lower crust and were consecutively buried along the isothermal portion of the subducting slab or (2) the mafic rocks recorded up to 14 kbar of tectonic overpressure at constant depth and temperature during the collisional stage of the orogeny.  相似文献